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    Michael Butler

2022 North Atlantic hurricane forecast contest _ enter by June 1st

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Time for the annual seasonal forecast contest ... same simplified format, just predict the seasonal counts of Storms, Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes, the long-term average for the sake of the format is 16/8/3 (or thereabouts). 

The contest will be based on the official NHC reporting on these stats during the season. Whether a named storm appears in May or not, the contest will not be affected, your prediction is the season end total, not the remainder of the season total. 

I will say June 1st as a rough deadline but may extend it slightly if there is a need to attract more entries. In past years 20 to 30 entries have been posted.

Good luck! 

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+PNA next 15 days is going to strengthen ENSO subsurface warm pool which is already +1 spread-throughout... 2 years ago or last year it didn't matter.. surface SSTs held correlation by significance, but 500mb/SLP pattern subsurface wins by like +5SD's.. I don't know lol. Probably an active season with Neutral ENSO. Maybe 19 storms, unless there is a "put" on it. +ENSO acceleration now without surface movement is going to strengthen our "below the threshold" 

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