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3/12 Event: Winters Last Hurrah at Least East of Mountains


Weather Will
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6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Looks like it just shifted the heavy band from over the metros to out toward the Catoctins.

Heaviest qpf still over the metros and se. Better temps north and west. Looks like noise at this point.

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W borderline temps I agree rooting for a bit of sleet early on will actually enhance accumulations by putting down a base to help overcome daylight and mid March 

16 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Wanted to go full weenie along I-95 with what some of the hi-res are spitting out, but due to the timing and uncertainty with the rates I kept things a bit closer to climo.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Wanted to go full weenie along I-95 with what some of the hi-res are spitting out, but due to the timing and uncertainty with the rates I kept things a bit closer to climo.

 

I’d rather this conservative climo look with some upside potential thank you sir great map

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14 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Put the poster on Ignore or just stop responding to the posts. It's just a sad attempt at getting attention.

I feel like I say this every year multiple times, but people can't stop.

This. 

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Serious question (and I am not complaining- I am excited about any snow tomorrow):

Why does NWS have Staunton in the 1-2" range on their expected snowfall map, but has a 66% probability that Staunton will get over 2"? 

Aren't those two things mutually exclusive?  They both have the 10:26 am time stamp.  As a teacher of math, I am befuddled by this. 

63 degrees here NW of Staunton

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36 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Actually Conn/ Ave is higher elevation where I am.   I'm going to get 6 to 12" due to my 300 ft elevation.  Can barely breathe up here.  Thinner air.

Wouldn’t 6” be over your head?  Good thing you got the sled dogs. Saves on gas too!!

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14 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Serious question (and I am not complaining- I am excited about any snow tomorrow):

Why does NWS have Staunton in the 1-2" range on their expected snowfall map, but has a 66% probability that Staunton will get over 2"? 

Aren't those two things mutually exclusive?  They both have the 10:26 am time stamp.  As a teacher of math, I am befuddled by this. 

63 degrees here NW of Staunton

The probability values are an experimental automated product obtained using output from an ensemble of models.  It is one of several tools including models, satellite, radar, and observations used by forecasters when obtaining the forecast value of 1-2". 

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