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    Michael Butler

February 2022


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My perception of what is coming prior to March 3. After that, a very good looking pattern to start March. Plenty to deal with til March 3. I'll be interested in the weeklies IF any stratwarm concept, that updates to us late today. 

10PM tonight-7AM Friday NC to I90 in MA-NYS: Damaging wind and I think a fair amount of power outages. Some of these power outages may last a day or so. Areal coverage will vary but I think PA-MD-NJ-Long Island-RI-E MA are targeted the most extensive. Minimum gust sometime late tonight around 45 MPH with maximum gusts 60-70 MPH ridges, and parts of the I95 corridor including especially Long Island Eastern MA. Be prepared late tonight with phone cells charged, cars sheltered and how to handle if no heat tomorrow. Worst of the wind should occur between Midnight and 5AM Friday for most of our members. Much colder Friday afternoon--probably 30 degrees colder compared to the very warm readings of this afternoon into the overnight.

Saturday: I84 corridor: a line of briefly heavy snow showers lasts less than hour with hilly terrain Trace to 1/2" and possibly suddenly slippery conditions. Valley roads should be mainly wet despite the brief snow shower.

Friday February 25: Raleigh NC to the I84 corridor. Unknown regarding the southward extent if any ice (Raleigh-Richmond-Baltimore) so that could still be a miss, but I think PA-NJ northward through the I84 corridor to Boston will need to monitor forecasts for possible travel delays in ice-snow. For now I84 from the Poconos-easton PA through nw NJ, N CT-most of MA are favored for a winter storm with areas just south from NYC-PHL unknown if anything more than a couple hours of ice-snow?

March 1-2: Another extensive wintry event possible for the I84 corridor northward.

Have a day... will send my max wind gust tomorrow morning provided internet is up.


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Usually you don't get new ENSO state (warm subsurface-now) -change impact the Winter pattern, Dec-Mar. Usually it's first felt in April. I guess 1988 is a counter example where we had more southern stream High pressures. The +PNA is from warm subsurface ENSO (greater 500mb correlation than surface, by alot). 1) The amount of "+PNA cold" we see in the east is capped by this "law". 

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Definitely a good look starting late next week.

Overrunning can be messy and at times frustrating, however constant tracking is a great thing for us hobbyist.

1 to 6 inch type mixed events across the forum with a lot of cold following the storms can create a mean pack.

Let's see if it pans out.

I love the fact that the good pattern seems to be moving up in time (earlier so better pack retention as opposed to Mid March for snow lovers, potentially earlier start of a warmer pattern for waministas).

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, but doesn't it seem a bit weird to answer different subject matter all in the same post?  I'll try it but I thought it'd be confusing to follow.


With multi quote,  you can answer each of the quoted  posts under that particular quote, if that makes sense.  

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

They were actually using these storm names to make conclusions that we are trending towards less winter storms than we had when they first began naming them.

Produced a bunch of graphics with their logo on them to compare how this year has less named storms than previous years when they named them.

Possibly one logical reason and, I do get it/ understand it, to name storms would be for better identifying/remembering storms more easily versus simply dates. 


Also,  if there's say 5 storms in a2 week period, that could easily get confusing when your throwing around months/ years and getting individual storms confused. 


Using the hurricane centers great success of people easily recalling past storms by name, maybe part of the reason they tried it.   Idk

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Ahead of the cold front, models are in good agreement with a
strong llj ([email protected]) developing across eastern coastal
areas late tonight into early Friday morning. As is typical for
this time of year with water temps in the lower 40s, the
challenge is how much of the llj will be able to mix down in a
strongly inverted low-level environment. GFS/NAM have remained
fairly consistent over the last 48 hrs, with GFS indicating a
typically slightly deeper mixed layer, with potential for 50 kt
gusts across LI/SE CT, while NAM more strongly inverted
indicating gust potential of 40 kt. NBM has trended slightly
upward with gust magnitude from 24 hrs ago, with 4.0 indicating
45-50kt gust potential for LI and SE CT, while version 4.1
continuing to showing a 45-55 kt potential for LI/CT. HRRR 10m
wind gust potential, which has show to be skillful (albeit a
little high) indicating potential for 55-60kt gusts for LI and
SE CT as well. SPC HREF indicating high potential for 30kt
sustained winds across LI/SE CT as well (not common),
supporting the strong to damaging wind gust potential.

Based on the model consistency and trends over the last few days,
confidence is high in a strong wind (wind advisory) event tonight
across the entire area, including NYC (45-55mph gusts), with
moderate to high confidence in high winds gusts (55-65mph) for
LI and SE CT under the core of the 75-80 kt llj. The timing for
peak strong to high wind gusts continues to center around 6-12z

Despite the strong inversion, based on the slight upward trend on
NBM 4.0 wind gust guidance towards the stronger NBM 4.1 guidance,
the strong signal from CAM guidance, and the anomalous strength of
the llj, will upgrade to a high wind warning for all of LI and
SE CT. Elsewhere will issue a wind advisory for strong wind
gust potential ahead of and immediately behind the cold front,
with highest threat along the coast and higher elevations.
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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, getting closer to the record of 66°.


2/17 66 in 2011 66 in 1976 61 in 1981

See,  that's why I thinking snowman meant records broken possibly jersey south, at least with 50-80% chance of actually coming close if not breaking.  

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If the early March cold verifies this will have been quite a seesaw winter of  sustained warmth -> cold -> warmth -> cold. 

Especially with the high departures both warm and then cold in Dec and Jan, are we in historically significant territory for the intensity of the flip flopping? Looks like it’s happening yet one more time with the warmth flipping back to more intense cold (if things play out as modeled). 

I know we often have a seesaw effect here in winter, but I don’t quite remember one this pronounced. Especially with a -3.5ish degree departure in January. 

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1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Doesn’t feel like winter, don’t like it.

Though I suppose I should get used to it as these kinds of days will only become more and more common in winter here. 

IMO don’t take the cold for granted. Eventually we’ll be lucky to drop below freezing. 

We never go through a winter without warmer periods. Things look to change late Feb into early March. 

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11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

the temps are immensely important too I'd like to see high/low splits for every post February event going back to say, 1950.


Agree totally. I remember a storm March 18 2013 the city was supposed to be brief snow changing to rain and the city overperformed a lot because it was a cold airmass at the start.    

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48 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Snow is gone and it feels beautiful outside currently 

@AllsnowCall me crazy but I think the models may be too aggressive/overdone with the EPO/PNA pump for early March, we have seen this many times in the past few winters. Then they correct weaker or even lose it as we get closer in time….I don’t think they lose it but I can certainly see them correct weaker. There is also a very real possibility that the gradient sets up to our north and we end up on the wrong/warm side of it, some of the operational runs in all 3 major globals have shown this possibility

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