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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


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Just now, alexderiemer said:

I'm feeling a little nervous that the east trend might even skunk us, but I feel like 4-5" is a reasonable expectation as of right now. Clearly GFS is taking the Euro to the woodshed in terms of forecasting accuracy, so it's hard to be excited for more..

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Yeah a couple more runs and I think the Euro and GFS will look about the same. Hopefully there is a little improvement from the GFS in getting to that point.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I agree. But I’ve been trying to “see” why that is happening. Perhaps it’s the changes up over Hudson Bay that are bumping it west. I don’t know. It also appears slightly stronger.

Has to be the TPV there.  Its hard to track that thing on the various models because it truly does wobble around and its very inconsistent clicking through everything.

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Yeah a couple more runs and I think the Euro and GFS will look about the same. Hopefully there is a little improvement from the GFS in getting to that point.
Is it really worth chasing for 5" though? We got more than that January 3rd...

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Just now, alexderiemer said:

Is it really worth chasing for 5" though? We got more than that January 3rd...

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Real talk Alex. I find the appeal of this one much greater since it is occurring during the day and should be less windy versus Jan 3rd.

Some prefer the wind but nasomuch here.

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3 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

Is it really worth chasing for 5" though? We got more than that January 3rd...

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Normally no, but the upcoming period looks more dicey for snow on the coastal plain, and I could use a fix- of snow and DFH. 

Rehoboth beach and Lewes are actually my favorite nearby places to visit.

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Normally no, but the upcoming period looks more dicey for snow on the coastal plain, and I could use a fix- of snow and DFH. 
Rehoboth beach and Lewes are actually my favorite nearby places to visit.
True, and very photogenic in the snow. I already pucked up my post roast for Friday night dinner...just tastes better on a cold and stormy night. About to head to work...at a grocery store. They don't care if the forecast is a inch, they panic either way...

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25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If I'm ever in a war, pinned down in a foxhole with enemy troops advancing on me from every direction, I want Roger Smith in there with me.  He'd take out his M16 and look out into the battlefield, seeing 20 tanks, 40 howitzers on all sides and 400 troops closing in and tell me, with a straight face...."dude, we are going to f*ck them up!" 

The world would be a better place if we all had his attitude.

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6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

The last storm that was easily pushed out had a 1040 high settling into West PA.  This cold source does not have as much strength and is mostly settled in instead of moving in. 

That high pressure gradient was roaring in near white-out conditions if not outright momentarily. Unreal storm for us that Jan 3rd.

Not to boast but It was actually too violent to be enjoyable.

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35 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If I'm ever in a war, pinned down in a foxhole with enemy troops advancing on me from every direction, I want Roger Smith in there with me.  He'd take out his M16 and look out into the battlefield, seeing 20 tanks, 40 howitzers on all sides and 400 troops closing in and tell me, with a straight face...."dude, we are going to f*ck them up!" 

This is how I picture Roger.......

tackleberry-police-academy.gif

 

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25 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I agree. But I’ve been trying to “see” why that is happening. Perhaps it’s the changes up over Hudson Bay that are bumping it west. I don’t know. It also appears slightly stronger.

GFS for roughly the same time.

GFS Trend.gif

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LWX has a great and awesomesauce disco this afternoon... hats off to them.  Well written as well

 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

...SLIGHT TO ENHANCED WINTER STORM THREAT AS MAJOR STORM LURKS 
OFFSHORE...

Overview...
The evolving large scale weather/jet stream pattern across the 
U.S. as well as latest model guidance continue to suggest the 
potential of a major, rapidly deepening area of low pressure 
moving northward off the East Coast Friday into Saturday. 
Although the brunt of the storm looks to be headed for New 
England, the Mid-Atlantic region will be on the western 
periphery of the rather large system resulting in an increasing 
likelihood of accumulating snow. Uncertainty remains in the all
important details, and users are encouraged to focus on the
broader "low-end" and "high-end" potential snowfall amounts at
this time range, with the caveat that the situation is still
evolving, the storm has yet to form, and continued variability
is likely in the "expected" snowfall amounts as finer scale
details come into clearer focus over the next couple of days.

For the latest forecast details, please visit:
www.weather.gov/lwx/winter.

Technical summary...
A mid-level jet max and weak isentropic lift well ahead of the
large scale trough will impinge on the Allegheny Front beginning
as early as shortly after sundown Thursday. At least scattered
snow shower activity is anticipated as a result Thursday night
over favored upslope areas, with a couple of inches possible
mainly along western facing ridges through daybreak Friday.

This axis of lift will slip slowly southward and eastward during
the day Friday while the upper trough sharpens across the TN/OH
Valley. The trough will have 3 embedded shortwaves within it: a
shortwave pivoting from SE MO to E KY, a southern stream
vorticity ribbon arcing back through the ArkLaMiss to TX, and a
trailing northern stream shortwave diving into the upper Great 
Lakes. It appears the trailing vorticity ribbon will become
ingested in the main shortwave trough, phasing sufficiently to
result in strong surface cyclogenesis in a PVA regime ahead of
the trough as it interacts with a baroclinic zone near the
Bahamas. Meanwhile, the trailing northern stream shortwave
likely also becomes infused into the large trough, aided in part
by very transient/weak blocking from the Arctic high retreating
off through the Canadian Maritimes. As all of these pieces
conjoin, rapidly deepening surface low pressure will track
northward off the Eastern Seaboard. The question is exactly how
far offshore the low tracks. A consensus of the latest
model/ensemble data as well as the background UA pattern suggest
a low track from about 150 miles east of the Outer Banks of NC
to just outside (SE of) the 40 N/70 W benchmark off the New
England coast.

With the lack of a more substantial downstream block over the 
North Atlantic, the low is more likely to track far enough
offshore and deepen far enough to the east and north that the
heaviest band of snow would setup toward the NJ/New England
coast, with the northwestern edge setting up over southern MD
and the Eastern Shore. The infamous gradient between lighter and
heavier snowfall may end up near the I-95 corridor, and thus
bears a very close watch.

Otherwise, most of the accumulating snowfall for the majority of
the area will come from the upper trough axis itself. Snow may
mix with rain at the onset for lower elevations east of I-81 and
south of I-70 Friday afternoon due to boundary layer
temperatures progged into the mid to upper 30s. Upslope 
enhancement over the higher terrain will likely result in 
locally higher amounts over the Alleghenies. One thing to note, 
despite an overall relatively lighter expected snowfall across 
the majority of the area, the overall pattern somewhat resembles
that of a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event), where moisture from an 
intense, distant (offshore) low interacts with a mid- level 
frontal zone. This may result in a band of enhanced snowfall as 
hinted at in some runs of higher resolution guidance, but 
certainty on its magnitude and placement is low at this time.

Of greater certainty is increasing winds and plunging
temperatures as the low lifts out toward the Northeast heading
into Saturday. Dangerously cold wind chills are likely by
Saturday evening, and blowing snow is possible as winds
increase. Snow may linger in the I-95 corridor through Saturday
morning depending on the evolution of the offshore low, but dry
conditions should return areawide east of the Allegheny Front 
by nightfall.
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1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Randy I just had some oysters up at a place in Frederick called Shuckin Shack.  Chincoteagues no less. 
I could pick you up and we go to Harris on Kent Island for their AYCE Oysters 7 ways (including fresh shucked right in front of you) .Or do Old Ebbits again 

You make the call!

 

Is the Shuckin Shack worthy of stopping by if you're passing through Frederick?

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8 minutes ago, yoda said:

Anyone know the last time PRE and winter weather were discussed in the same sentence?  Interesting mention by LWX in their AFD about it

@csnavywx @WxUSAF

It’s different but I’ve heard people mention it on Twitter. Nice that they also think there’s upside potential similar to what Pete Mullinax and HM have said. That and the ULL are what I’m watching. 

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