Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, nutmegfriar said:

It's not that often that your locale and mine are both looking good in a snowstorm.  Enjoy the storm.

You too man. I always love it best when everyone shares the wealth. It sucks when it’s a relatively small geographic area 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

BOX AFD discussion said they could be as high as 20-25 to 1 in bands, so clown maps could be understated for once in their life.

Nah. BOX should be 5 ppd if they have 25:1 in their grids right now.

I would entertain 20:1, but only once I have complete confidence based on mesoanalysis where that band is setting up.

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Damage In Tolland Thanks for the heads up on the map mistake, fixed that missed range...also changed Berks from 4-8 to 5-10"

 

great map but bump that 18 to 30 west 10 miles  

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Bald and beers are beautiful 

Complete and total endorsement

[TalcottWx]

Been talking to fish for a few. I don't wanna say too much but he seems to not be worried at all about this reaching major status. With that being said, it's not really his job to be declaring what will and won't be historic. 

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Great Euro run. 965mb just off the Cape.  By the way this run brings snow to every place in New England.  From the SW corner of Connecticut to Caribou Maine.  Not one person sees a flip or a mix.  When was the last time that happened?

What a frickin ride this week.  Off to bed so I can wake up early.  Thanks to all the great analysis.  Some are indicating a bit of mix on Nantucket, maybe Chatham, but for the most part yes.

 

 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Raise em up 

[TheSnowman]

24 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

30-40 was in the casket, the minister was saying what a great fellow he had been, and how we would all miss him, and a voice came from within the casket ...

BECAUSE I FUC%ING CANCELED MY GOD DAMN MOTHER FU$KING FLIGHT!!!!

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

If the SPC mesoanalysis maps are to be believed, when comparing actual hour 0 to the latest RAP initialization, the RAP initialized with the SLP 2mb weaker and with a slightly broader trough.

 

Actually buoy 41002 has a 1002 mb pressure, so it's probable that the initialization of the SPC is splitting the difference between the RAP background and the actual ob.

[Damage In Tolland]

Love the beer pics . No weed pics!

[Zeus]

Just now, TheSnowman said:

BECAUSE I FUC%ING CANCELED MY GOD DAMN MOTHER FU$KING FLIGHT!!!!

Ily bb

[NeonPeon]

1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

BECAUSE I FUC%ING CANCELED MY GOD DAMN MOTHER FU$KING FLIGHT!!!!

Thanks for your service.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's hard to look at this and hate what it shows for east of a BDL/ORH/GYX line. 

And it could get a tick more refined earlier too. 

[Hoth]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just realized I never made a call. Let me have a few cocktails first. 

I was just about to ask, what are we drinking tonight gentlemen? I'm making my opening salvo with some Japanese whiskey. Depending on which personality of the NAM shows up in a few hours, I'll either break out Glenmorangie or Dewer's...or maybe just acetone.

[Henry's Weather]

IT'S GONNA CRUSH YEAHHHHHHHH

[CT Valley Dryslot]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Actually buoy 41002 has a 1002 mb pressure, so it's probable that the initialization of the SPC is splitting the difference between the RAP background and the actual ob.

SPC 22z sfc:

22z RAP hour 0

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Been talking to fish for a few. I don't wanna say too much but he seems to not be worried at all about this reaching major status. With that being said, it's not really his job to be declaring what will and won't be historic. 

My guy feeling is that some of these wonky convective fox hunts are going to lead to smaller coverage of some major totals. I wouldn't feel great with widespread 20+ right now in my forecast, but Fish did a good job of highlighting two areas that at this time look most likely to do it with 12-18" everywhere else east of ORH.

[jbenedet]

Think one could have done better to head to the beach and stare at the sky and ocean and count seagulls for 10 minutes to figure this forecast than to watch today’s model runs.
 

Technology can be regressive folks.

 

[bristolri_wx]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Actually buoy 41002 has a 1002 mb pressure, so it's probable that the initialization of the SPC is splitting the difference between the RAP background and the actual ob.

I just had to chug an IPA as I had Buoy 41002 in the “Blizzard of ‘22” drinking game.

[dryslot]

[STILL N OF PIKE]

58 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Agreed!

They're all great models and they have their own purposes, but they have limitations as well. 

Through experience (running WRF/RAMS/ICLAMS simulations), they get inaccurate during dynamic events involving a copious amount of latent heat - You'd think that running a simulation for Feb, 2013 would be easy using analysis data (initialization data of a modeling system). Nope! I tried with the GFS, FNL, NAM, HRRR, and ERA... Nothing performed well in terms of QPF distribution across New England.

If you look at hurricane models, they're run at fine resolutions to resolve convective/latent heat processes. Despite that, finer resolution models rely on global models (and hence, regional models) to 'feed' their initial and boundary conditions. Artifacts in == artifacts out. That's why I'm not too concerned about the mesos showing a dual low structure at the moment (we'll see what happens at 00 UTC).

Last thing. This isn't directed at you, but the NAVGEM is used by the Navy for the Navy. Please don't use it for complicated atmospheric interactions. The Navy only cares about coastal areas, oceans, and relatively deep bodies of water. That's its purpose 

 

You’ve been posting on a higher  level  , good insights 

[monadnocks]

Just now, Hoth said:

I was just about to ask, what are we drinking tonight gentlemen? I'm making my opening salvo with some Japanese whiskey. Depending on which personality of the NAM shows up in a few hours, I'll either break out Glenmorangie or Dewer's...or maybe just acetone.

I'm still in an online meeting. Drinking sounds like a good option.

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

BOX AFD discussion said they could be as high as 20-25 to 1 in bands, so clown maps could be understated for once in their life.

That would only be in the band though and not for the whole storm. 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I was just about to ask, what are we drinking tonight gentlemen? I'm making my opening salvo with some Japanese whiskey. Depending on which personality of the NAM shows up in a few hours, I'll either break out Glenmorangie or Dewer's...or maybe just acetone.

NOTHING

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

I just had to chug an IPA as I had Buoy 41002 in the “Blizzard of ‘22” drinking game.

Yes!

[ineedsnow]

I know its late in the game to use the EPS but curious to see if they start to lose the east members

[shawnmov]

4 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Thanks for your service.

Yeah. Thanks for taking one for the team 

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Love the beer pics . No weed pics!

Shire Double Space Jack right now.  Lovin' the vibe after the 18z Euro smacked some back to reality.

[NotSureWeather]

29 minutes ago, BostonWX said:

Peak panic now behind us? 10.1 and Kuchera euro maps

 

 

 

 

That’s a wet kuchi for sure.

[Damage In Tolland]

Harvey and Fish know