Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Baroclinic Zone]

Hope the convective blob is not as strong and you get the ULL to close off sooner(stronger),  

[TalcottWx]

12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

He’s always been ...bad 

Just want to remind everyone these guys do check this place out every once in awhile. Just figured I'd mention. 

[cleetussnow]

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Clothes on or off?

Yeah let us know I am already kind of ashamed of myself.

[Sn0waddict]

HRRR has been coming back west the past two runs. Could just be noise but 22z looks better than 18z in terms of low placement to me.

[Southshorewx]

19 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Lol every map on this board does the Tolland split. So cruel.

Yeah, a Walmart.

Moving so fast you have to double quote to troll. 

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

What did that end up doing

[Greg]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

HRRR has been coming back west the past two runs. Could just be noise but 22z looks better than 18z in terms of low placement to me.

I hear yah. Been watching it too.

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Who's call is it at the WFO?

Ultimately the lead on shift, but the other mets make their forecast if they are tasked with the storm and the lead only steps in if it's just bad/wrong. Management doesn't usually dip into dictating the forecast.

 

[Henry's Weather]

Check the Satellite forecast from Analysis at hour 0 to hour 1 on the HRRR... very fishy. Clearly not initializing properly. I would upload if these servers weren't too feeble to support files of reasonable size

[dryslot]

35 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Most difficult forecast I have ever observed in multiple decades of following winter weather. Anyway, here is my view on the impending Blizzard (hopefully, maybe) of '22. For in depth look at why this forecast is so excruciatingly, if the event that you have a rather keen interest in watching paint try, have read for a glimpse into my rationale. Otherwise, should be firing up around midnight from south to north, and going (hopefully) strong throughout the day tomorrow before winding down Saturday evening. If this comes together as is should/could, it has the potential to deposit snowfall rivaling that of the Blizzard of 1978, however, confidence in an outcome of that magnitude is tempered by some odd phenomenon going on offshore (see blog). Infrastructure is likely to be paralyzed tomorrow, unless I am somewhat delusional, which is a possibility.

Now time to sleep for about 12 hours-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/.../blizzard-of...

[Greg]

No Double Low on the HRRR here on TT.

[WalpoleJoe]

Just listened to Kevin L on Fox 25 after Harv again did not back off...Kevin said he expects some locations may get 30+ inches, just not sure where....these Boston mets aren't dumb, they see something....hopefully they are right

 

[TalcottWx]

One thing to note: 23" is daily high snowfall record at BOS. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

HRRR has been coming back west the past two runs. Could just be noise but 22z looks better than 18z in terms of low placement to me.

All afternoon it’s moving to the RAP

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Just want to remind everyone these guys do check this place out every once in awhile. Just figured I'd mention. 

Good 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

What is Harvey calling for 

[hooralph]

49 minutes ago, Cmass495 said:

Harvey: "This is a classic, this is a classic .... even in Worcester I can see 18-24."

At his age and experience, Harvey just has no f*cks left to give. 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Didn’t like York or Ogunquit put up a 24 burger in that? Like 10 miles away had 5”

[CT Valley Dryslot]

RAP still looks great on its 22z run.

[weathafella]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What is Harvey calling for 

24+ inside 495

[Typhoon Tip]

58 minutes ago, wkd said:

I liked Tip's post saying that the dual lows at this point is just a reflection of computer algorithms.  I believe there have been a lot of comments saying it looks unrealistic.  This storm's evolution should be a test of the model's capability in the relative short term.  Over the years there have been numerous times the models have shown the  "chasing the convection scenario".  It would be interesting to know the statistics on the ultimate outcome. 

Well thank you but .. I didn't really say 'algorithms'  haha.  Okay though -

I simpler terms,..the models' convection parameters might be to "too smart for their own good". They're sensitive, and the region astride the EC is a powderkeg at rest state ... pretty much at all times.  It may ( metaphorically) overwhelm the models, such that they get carried away - faux convection. 

This is an area of physics that is a little different that tracking a S/W, and propagating them through a field.  All the models can really do is set up instability - budgeting where convection fires gets down closer to chaos.  They can't really predict that, and the convection we have been seeing, what they are using to developing the dual/triple lows, may not exist in reality...  I mean there will be convection out there, but the models are creating it, and relying on the created mass to direct their results...

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Harvey is probably new englands most experienced met… comforting for him to be not backing down 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, weathafella said:

24+ inside 495

Holy Shiat

 

[CT Rain]

I do think leading up to these storms the NWS/TV have a hard time sort of resetting when there's a trend toward a bust or more caution flags as the event nears. Ramping up is easy but no one wants to back down. After all the trends today this does not look like the same storm I was expecting when I went today... but you wouldn't know that from watching TV or reading that BOX AFD.

I could definitely be wrong but there are far more caution flags right now than things that make me super stoked.

[mattm4242]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What is Harvey calling for 

[weathafella]

Harvey seems really confident but keep in mind he’s forecasting for the easiest area and with the mid levels the Boston area should get pummeled regardless.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, hooralph said:

At his age and experience, Harvey just has no f*cks left to give. 

He’s now like Al Michaels when he will unabashedly talk about sports gambling in the middle of the broadcast…he knows he’s a legend and doesn’t give a shit about playing it safe. 
 

That said, Harvey did this in the 2/15/15 storm too. He was basically the only met who stuck to his guns on huge snows in E Ma despite model guidance trying to give us a pedestrian advisory event. Sometimes the upper air is just so overwhelming. I also think he knows that there’s the fluff factor to lean back on….if the storm ends up a bit more seaward, there’s still the exceptional ML/Deformation that will have incredible snow growth and maybe winds not quite as strong in that scenario. 

[mattm4242]

Save us, Euro.

Even in extreme eastern mass, I’m not feeling too great right now.

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Ultimately the lead on shift, but the other mets make their forecast if they are tasked with the storm and the lead only steps in if it's just bad/wrong. Management doesn't usually dip into dictating the forecast.

 

You or eckster working?