Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[weatherwiz]

23 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I guess my point is, the overall further east (wider swing) evolution vs prior runs makes sense given the change in the trough. so why try to find other reasons to explain it when it did exactly what you would expect based on how it changed earlier in the run?

Completely agreed with the bolded. 

You're though talking about the evolution and track. I am just referring to the initial low pressure development. If the initial low development say is further east...with the changes in the trough that will result in an even more east swing. If the initial low development is farther east...with the changes in the trough you still get the east swing but that east swing isn't nearly as far east. you still have a more west track. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Giant thermonuclear fusion reaction will hurl massive amounts of energy toward the Earth!!!  Film at 11

Will it lead to a clean phase?

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

This chart tells all.  Look at the GFS score past the 23rd.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/images/acc_valid00Z_HGT_P500_fhr120_G002NHX.png

And zoom out to the scorecard for winter - even worse.

Most will probably gloss right over this, but that link is the most important post this morning. 

Had no idea the GFS was having such a poor winter season. Euro clear leader. Definitely instructive, especially while the pattern has been largely consistent over most of that time series. 

[Spaizzo]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Giant thermonuclear fusion reaction will hurl massive amounts of energy toward the Earth!!!  Film at 11

If they uses real technical terms people would ignore it…then yell at why weren’t they warned  

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What is your bar? You sound like you expect 2-4”.

Ya he’s shook…very negative. He needs a gummy for sure. Ya hate to see it. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Completely agreed with the bolded. 

You're though talking about the evolution and track. I am just referring to the initial low pressure development. If the initial low development say is further east...with the changes in the trough that will result in an even more east swing. If the initial low development is farther east...with the changes in the trough you still get the east swing but that east swing isn't nearly as far east. you still have a more west track. 

Agree with your point as well. I don't think we have quite honed in on a final answer as to how the most complicated process of the storm will play out. We are getting closer, but not yet. Changes in the actual storm dynamic can have positive effects that could help negate a less favorable trough.

[DEEPSTUFF]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You aren't going to see the deformation zone show up in QPF charts.

Anyone done post analysis of prior storms actual vs modeled to get an idea on avg where these setup? 

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

My apologies if I sound like I am cancelling the storm because I'm not. I'm just cancelling any hope for a KU for WOR, that's all. I believe the last 18+ event for WOR was Feb13. Mar18 may of had a weenie band for extreme WCT that dropped 20" for select locals but WOR as a hole which includes Hippy and the CMA/WMA crew....was Feb13. And let's be honest here, if EMA hasn't seen an 18+ event in 8yrs, there would be an endless amount of keyboard slamming, amongst other damages. 

How'd you do last February? I had 17" here.

[msg112469]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is coming guys.

Yup. Now you get into the analysis paralysis part of tracking a beast like this one. Lol!

[Winter Wizard]

12 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

This chart tells all.  Look at the GFS score past the 23rd.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/images/acc_valid00Z_HGT_P500_fhr120_G002NHX.png

And notice also how the Euro is consistently king. Very much goes against the narrative some people are pushing on this forum. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, DEEPSTUFF said:

Anyone done post analysis of prior storms actual vs modeled to get an idea on avg where these setup? 

Haven't been many to analyze this year, anyway

[GCWarrior]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

My apologies if I sound like I am cancelling the storm because I'm not. I'm just cancelling any hope for a KU for WOR, that's all. I believe the last 18+ event for WOR was Feb13. Mar18 may of had a weenie band for extreme WCT that dropped 20" for select locals but WOR as a hole which includes Hippy and the CMA/WMA crew....was Feb13. And let's be honest here, if EMA hasn't seen an 18+ event in 8yrs, there would be an endless amount of keyboard slamming. 

We did well in 12/2020 and 12/2019.  

[bwt3650]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Giant thermonuclear fusion reaction will hurl massive amounts of energy toward the Earth!!!  Film at 11

Exactly 

[SnoSki14]

I'm kind of optimistic about this working out somehow after being so negative about it. 

All it takes is a subtle shift in the southern stream ejection and everything changes. 

Because of the fast flow these subtleties may not be accurately captured until we're less than 36hrs out. 

[Cyclone-68]

Looks like almost  time to buy every loaf of bread and gallon of milk in a 30 mile wide radius 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Agree with your point as well. I don't think we have quite honed in on a final answer as to how the most complicated process of the storm will play out. We are getting closer, but not yet. Changes in the actual storm dynamic can have positive effects that could help negate a less favorable trough.

Agreed. We still have a bit before those complicated process are fully resolved. The spread has lowered some but is still high enough to result in a wide swing of possibilities on a local level. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm agreeing with Will....I think some are getting spooked by the east shifts. I get it, but I think it's only Wednesday and plenty of time to see shuffles. This will shove banding way west I think of the low center.

I don't see it but I defer to you guys obviously. Regardless, it's been a subpar winter for many so this should change the vibe for yourself and the east at least. GL sir. 

[DEEPSTUFF]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Haven't been many to analyze this year, anyway

Talking years as well.

[msg112469]

56 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

Right because we always get lows in the 950s/960s going near the benchmark. 

I'm with you on this one. This is definitely something that people will want to prepare for. There are people alive today that have never experienced a storm of this magnitude!

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Leaning 6-10" for WCT.  

 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

My apologies if I sound like I am cancelling the storm because I'm not. I'm just cancelling any hope for a KU for WOR, that's all. I believe the last 18+ event for WOR was Feb13. Mar18 may of had a weenie band for extreme WCT that dropped 20" for select locals but WOR as a hole which includes Hippy and the CMA/WMA crew....was Feb13. And let's be honest here, if EMA hasn't seen an 18+ event in 8yrs, there would be an endless amount of keyboard slamming. 

Ah ok. I got it. I’m more or less with that I think. Our first call with SCW will probably be more conservative WOR but still a warning level & high impact event. 

If I were making a map this very second I’d probably go 6-12 WOR (actually further west—imagine a line north of New Haven) and 12-18 east. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, DEEPSTUFF said:

Anyone done post analysis of prior storms actual vs modeled to get an idea on avg where these setup? 

I would say look at the H7 temp gradient, which is where it should be according to the model, but adjust it like 30 to 50 miles NW, since this system will have such an overwhelming inflow. ...of course, this is all assuming that the model is synoptically well placed to begin with. If its track is too far east, then adjust even further NW.

[Chrisrotary12]

People freaking out about the GFS then you realize that this image is still 3.25 days away.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don't see it but I defer to you guys obviously. Regardless, it's been a subpar winter for many so this should change the vibe for yourself and the east at least. GL sir. 

I mean I’m not saying lock in a Jack, but I think better than Gfs for sure. Who knows, it won’t take much to send the deformation west. 

[msg112469]

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

Otherwise known as a snowstorm in winter.

At least it IS hype worthy. If you are going to hype a storm, this is probably THE ONE!

[Damage In Tolland]

All systems go for biggie back to Logan 11

[dryslot]

Someone needs to keep the sideways UK maps away from ant as he cant turn his head that far to interpret them, The 12z ukie moved quite a bit west of 0z.

[HoarfrostHubb]

For those panicking, if the Euro holds serve (more or less) will you feel better?

[Cyclone-68]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean I’m not saying lock in a Jack, but I think better than Gfs for sure. Who knows, it won’t take much to send the deformation west. 

Hi Scott, barring  something crazy we should be generally set for something major in our parts, no?

 

 

 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All systems go for biggie back to Logan 11

KFS READY FOR LIFTOFF

[msg112469]

1 hour ago, NeonPeon said:

I'm not spooked, there's a great storm brewing that seems increasingly likely to do well for all. Its sensible impacts here are almost certainly going to be less than everywhere else, due to climo. I've yet to see a nor'easter not favor other areas, and I've been here for more than a decade now.

As to the cape being nervous? They know the deal, as do I, for any storm, unless they are unhinged. Mixing is often a threat that requires tracking till the last minute. They aren't going to turn on being nervous or not at 3 days out. They are nervous till the flakes fall, if they are weenies at all.

This storm has been brewed. Almost ready to be served.