Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[weatherwiz]

Given where the baroclinic zone is on the GFS (unless the other factors are just playing a bigger role overall) I find it tough to believe the eastward track. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Just for fun:

 

 

It's over from a KU perspective for WOR. Just hope to grab a weenie band for a few hours that could drop 10". Euro will keep sliding east. Jan15 part2 in the making. 

[CCHurricane]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It’s a decent SE MA snowstorm. Nothing close to historic, verbatim. 

All about perspective. It would certainly be a historic storm from Boston points south through Cape Cod and could threaten top-10 all time 2 day snowfall totals, while likely being number 1 near the Canal.  

 

[bishbish777]

GFS, CMC, and UK all east..

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, PWMan said:

Looks pretty pedestrian outside of SE Mass and far downeast ME. 

I still think deformation will make it further west than  modeling, regardless of how far east it tracks.

[Lava Rock]

Looks pretty pedestrian outside of SE Mass and far downeast ME. Nice moderate storm with some wind, but nothing special snowfall-wise.

So much for the HECS

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[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CCHurricane said:

All about perspective. It would certainly be a historic storm from Boston points south through Cape Cod and could threaten top-10 all time 2 day snowfall totals, while likely being number 1 near the Canal.  

 

Jan 2005 is a really hard hurdle to clear for the upper Cape/PYM area...they literally got 35-40" widespread there in that storm.

[weathafella]

You guys are nuts.   Gfs made a huge bow towards the euro.   Forget about the verbatim.

[JC-CT]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Ukie is east

Hearing the cmc is also east

Not a good 12z suite at all

Be back later

I'm sorry, sad man puppy eyes. Here, I hope this cheers you up!

[WeatherHappens]

BOS 18-24

agree/disagree

[Lava Rock]

It's over from a KU perspective for WOR. Just hope to grab a weenie band for a few hours that could drop 10". Euro will keep sliding east. Jan15 part2 in the making. 

We can always adjust down

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[NeonPeon]

The GFS still shows a freakish bomb. I am not sure the details (strange oscillation and lobed low) is that convincing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WeatherHappens said:

BOS 18-24

agree/disagree

Largely agree.

[weatherwiz]

Like the GFS pops the sfc low much farther east than the NAM/Euro which (even though there are the slight differences with the shortwaves) could also explain a more east push and then a subsequent later capture. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Modeling that shows deformation over the cape is either going to end up over me, or even ORH.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

You guys are nuts.   Gfs made a huge bow towards the euro.   Forget about the verbatim.

Every model crushes you. Easy to say for sure. If the Euro caves it sounds like only the long range NAM remains. Not a great place to be. 

[mahk_webstah]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, It looked better at H5 later but i'll tell you what, That is close to ending up like the euro and were not talking a whole lot of changes for that to happen either especially if it P\U that s\w sooner in the south.

18Z could be the one

[tiger_deF]

Friendship ended with 12z suite (outside of NAM), now 18z suite is my best friend

[bwt3650]

10 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

Right because we always get lows in the 950s/960s going near the benchmark. 

Yes, the end of the world is coming…a “bomb cyclone” with “hurricane force winds”…let’s create crazy adjectives to describe it and build hype and stoke fear.  It’s a substantial storm, but so was 78, 93, 96, 15 and so on.  It will snow, we will plow, and move on…

[hooralph]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

You guys are nuts.   Gfs made a huge bow towards the euro.   Forget about the verbatim.

Shh. Help me plug in this toaster while I draw my bath. Nobody left in the NYC forum. It's Jonestown after the GFS.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

I'm sorry, sad man puppy eyes. Here, I hope this cheers you up!

7yrs and yet, the same issue remains. Way too phase happy. 

[wxeyeNH]

I will take my .02" up here and run.  I don't see anything exciting with this run. Guess I'm a Debbie for up here. What a storm if this tracked thru the cancel. Still time but I don't like the trends

[JC-CT]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Like the GFS pops the sfc low much farther east than the NAM/Euro which (even though there are the slight differences with the shortwaves) could also explain a more east push and then a subsequent later capture. 

It was because it held back the shortwave in the s/w waaay more than it had for several runs, so the trough ended up further east. but the northern stream changes were good imho. so we need the southern stream to revert to not holding back as much. it is a big change that it just made, so again, I'd love some continuity there. then again, euro has definitely been moving towards holding it back more.

[ariof]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Problem is that 2 degrees equals about 20" for many

~133 miles, which is just about the GFS 12" gradient (BGR-BOS) versus the NAM (PHL-HPN-???)

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

So much for the HECS

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GFS says the geographic range of the best snow is pretty narrow. Not a HECS on that count alone. 

[Hoth]

All the models suck, therefore the ruling on the field is that each weenie should cling to whichever output most closely accords with his or her confirmation bias. In addition, the Ukie will be assessed a penalty for flagrant weenie baiting, and its low will be set on the benchmark. Automatic first down.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

7yrs and yet, the same issue remains. Way too phase happy. 

If you don't hit at least 10", I will buy you a beer.

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z GEFS less amplified than 06z.

[MJO812]

Euro will go east

It's the last model besides the weenie Nam to be really far west.

[George001]

The Canadian buried more energy so it moved east as a result. Not great, but I’m not giving up on this storm. It still has time to come back west.