Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z Nam looks like it would have been good just based off of hr 84 H5 map.

 

Bomba. At some point, we will get a nam or two that will cause George to have a seizure...supporting his 48-60" forecast. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If people are solely chasing a jackpot in any storm, chances are you will be disappointed. I just think in a storm like this, as modeled, it’s a major event for all.

also, good luck pinning down where the mega band will set up. See, 2013

Jackpot is one thing....don't expect that. But barely crawling over a foot in something like this leaves a lot on the table.

[dryslot]

I never Jack here so, One less thing to concern myself with, I have a whole bevy of far greater problems i can come up with.......

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

I never Jack here so, One less thing to concern myself with, I have a whole bevy of far greater problems i can come up with.......

Same...rare, anyway.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Nice overrrunning snows @72.

We were noticing that in the more amped solutions from two days ago … it’s like a mock PRE in front of a cane

[ORH_wxman]

NAM is actually kind of weird at 84...trough is not as deep and negative as Euro at same time, but the NAM is hugging the mid-level center west of the Euro...so who knows.

Also analyzing 84h NAM nuances.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Bomba. At some point, we will get a nam or two that will cause George to have a seizure...supporting his 48-60" forecast. 

All the models seem to be phasing to all or some degree that s/w crossing NM instead of leaving it behind as the trough is in a better position for that feature to be more east.

[MJO812]

[George001]

37 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

dude don't you live in Foxboro? YOU'RE FINE

Yeah Foxboro area

[George001]

Just now, MJO812 said:

That’s a very expansive precip shield 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is actually kind of weird at 84...trough is not as deep and negative as Euro at same time, but the NAM is hugging the mid-level center west of the Euro...so who knows.

Also analyzing 84h NAM nuances.

Taken with a grain of salt, Just wanted to see it not dragging its heels at this point.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Nice overrrunning snows @72.

There’s our Pre on Friday 

[dryslot]

There's your pre.

[wxsniss]

Main thing I take away from 18z NAM is thru 54hrs...

12z had southern energy way back SW, farther than most guidance... this 18z run is correcting... beyond that, probably not much value 

[Baroclinic Zone]

 Pimpin storm threat

https://www.boston.com/weather/local-forecasts/2022/01/25/significant-storm-atlantic-coastline-this-weekend/?p1=hp_featurestack

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just a massive storm...wow

[tamarack]

58 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Enough of the Miller A vs B discussion. It's useless. Just like the ICON.

Edit: Not yelling at Will. It's just the post I found.

Without using the alphabet and without dates and maps, I have a strong impression that secondaries forming north of Chesapeake are more dependable snowmakers for NNE than those that redevelop farther south.  Nothing to do with storm strength, only that the southerly ones seem to have more opportunity to be shoved OTS.

[JC-CT]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Something to keep in mind as well as far as haves and have nots are concerned. It’s not like someone is going to get 20” and someone else 3”. It’s probably more like 25 vs 15 or 18” or something 

this is only true if it doesn't slip east. but you know that.

[PhineasC]

Cant wait for NAM time. Gonna cook up a monster. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

There's your pre.

Predecessor Rain Event? I’ve only ever analyzed them for tropical but I suppose they can work in quasi-warm cored mid latitude cyclones as well?

[Hoth]

Given the upper level venting depicted on most models, I’d have to think you’d get pretty efficient snow growth well north and west from this thing. 

[radarman]

Love to see nammy bullish on the dynamic snows out ahead.  Let the others figure out the phase.

[WeatherWilly]

[Torch Tiger]

PSE predecessor snow event

[ROOSTA]

Beware of the Mid-Latitude Tempest that develops and eye. 
BOMBS AWAY!

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Predecessor Rain Event? I’ve only ever analyzed them for tropical but I suppose they can work in quasi-warm cored mid latitude cyclones as well?

Not literally the same thing.  Different mechanisms giving an homaged appeal. 
 

[tamarack]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I never Jack here so, One less thing to concern myself with, I have a whole bevy of far greater problems i can come up with.......

Jacks for any particular spot are very uncommon (unless one is on MWN) but the LEW total from late Feb 1969 is still 10" greater than any storm I've experienced, even though it was 7" shy of Farmington.  
Haven't had a 12"+ storm since March 2018, by far the longest such stretch in my 23.5 winters here.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you and I both would be disappointed with 15"

Oh no doubt . If I get 15” or sand and Mansfield up the road gets 29” I’ll freak 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Cant wait for NAM time. Gonna cook up a monster. 

There will be a run or two that sends the dryslot into interior CNE and jackpots Plattsburgh, NY that will cause a bunch of meltdowns until an hour later when none of the other models follow it.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Predecessor Rain Event? I’ve only ever analyzed them for tropical but I suppose they can work in quasi-warm cored mid latitude cyclones as well?

PSE in this instance lol