Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[msg112469]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are a lot of folks who would feel porked with 12" in a sea of 2' plus....you are full of shit if you think otherwise.

Happens all the time with storms like this one. Some will get 12-18" and some could get 30+ if the models continue to support be that possibility.

[Go Kart Mozart]

As much as I would love 962 just south of Montauk, I have to think it is a dubious solution.  Euro is the only global kicking the SW energy out kit and caboodle.  With big storms like this, there is often a weenie band much further north and west than forecasted...that might be the hope for WOTR.

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

As much as I would love 962 just south of Montauk, I have to think it is a dubious solution.  Euro is the only global kicking the SW energy out kit and caboodle.  With big storms like this, there is often a weenie band much further north and west than forecasted...that might be the hope for WOTR.

True.  And I feel that band is never shows up well on the damn clown maps

[hooralph]

Is this what LBSW means?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

As much as I would love 962 just south of Montauk, I have to think it is a dubious solution.  Euro is the only global kicking the SW energy out kit and caboodle.  With big storms like this, there is often a weenie band much further north and west than forecasted...that might be the hope for WOTR.

Everything is still in play…I wouldn’t be using the phrase “that might be the hope” this early. The amped stuff could be right. So could the east grazers.  It’s all speculation at the moment. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

As much as I would love 962 just south of Montauk, I have to think it is a dubious solution.  Euro is the only global kicking the SW energy out kit and caboodle.  With big storms like this, there is often a weenie band much further north and west than forecasted...that might be the hope for WOTR.

That’s our lean since the get go but with days to go still, I’ll keep an open mind. 

[Lava Rock]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Everything is still in play…I wouldn’t be using the phrase “that might be the hope” this early. The amped stuff could be right. So could the east grazers.  It’s all speculation at the moment. 

be fitting if it goes OTS for most

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

be fitting if it goes OTS for most

While anything is possible…Keep the faith.  I’m Thinking it’s going to be good for most. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

While anything is possible…Keep the faith.  I’m Thinking it’s going to be good for most. 

literally anything

[weatherwiz]

Hopefully some of the recent changes in direction are not a product of starting to get better sampling (which would be not so good news) but the notable differences in the structures of just about everything...ridging in the West, evolution of the southern shortwave, the trough, and also the ULJ across the region is a bit concerning right now. We're not talking about subtle changes either. 

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

be fitting if it goes OTS for most

That's where all the models are except the Euro at this point. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Big western spread on the 6z NAEFS.

[SouthCoastMA]

But man that 00z 1/24 Euro run was EPIC. I don't think anything could top that 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That's where all the models are except the Euro at this point. 

ICON isn't horrible (as far as depiction).  Not a great model though

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That's where all the models are except the Euro at this point. 

For Northern N.H. Sure. That’s not the case much further south. 

[snowdazed]

Happy 2022 guys.

Why do I get the feeling I won't be able to get a haircut on Saturday?

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That's where all the models are except the Euro at this point. 

JMA!!!

[WinterWolf]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

JMA!!!

Ya he’s speaking for his area. That’s not really the case in SNE. 

[dryslot]

Phinn needs a hug (er)

[CT Valley Dryslot]

12z NAM would have at least a light event over the weekend.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

12z NAM would have at least a light event over the weekend.

That’s 7 pm Friday evening. Wonder where it goes from there?  But it’s the 84hr NAM..so…

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Phinn needs a hug (er)

Hopefully the east moves at least end at 12z. 06z had a whiff look for a bunch of people, not just me.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM would prob be more than a light event....it is more amped than the 06z GFS was at 90h.

[Damage In Tolland]

What east moves? 

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM would prob be more than a light event....it is more amped than the 06z GFS was at 90h.

yup. It ejects the southwest US shortwave just in time.

Northern stream s/w looks sharper too. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Anyone got an 06z EPS images?

[tiger_deF]

Is the NAM 84h generally considered to be more or less accurate than the 84h GFS?

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Hopefully the east moves at least end at 12z. 06z had a whiff look for a bunch of people, not just me.

The only model that was east is the GFS, You shook?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM would prob be more than a light event....it is more amped than the 06z GFS was at 90h.

Looks much better (favorable) with the ridging into the West and is slightly further west with the trough axis into the Gulf Coast. Would probably continue to see amplification too based on the jet. Still have a developing jet steak on the western side of the trough axis.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Anyone got an 06z EPS images?

Back a few pages.