Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Don't even look at that garbage model. 

In the great New England blizzard of 2/6-8,1978 ROC got 20+.  Uncle does drink too much so on that we can agree.

[tim123]

Just now, dryslot said:

I didn't look at the ICON.

Icon is too inconsistent. Sometimes its ok. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Hopefully we’ve seen the western goalposts on the cmc and gfs… seem like a subtle east tick on the op runs today 

[JC-CT]

i'm selling the ukmet, hard

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dryslot said:

Just a quick glance at where the SLP tracked is all i looked at, I don't have enough charts from SV to look at other then H5 and surface pretty much.

The reason it is stingy west of ORH is that the storm takes a really wide turn....it's pretty far east of Cape Hattaras but then it starts coming almost due north just barely E of the BM into the Gulf of Maine.

[dryslot]

Just now, tim123 said:

Icon is too inconsistent. Sometimes its ok. 

It sucks.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, tim123 said:

Icon is too inconsistent. Sometimes its ok. 

I just happen to remember ... but it came hugely west on over previous cycle ( 00z)... 

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The reason it is stingy west of ORH is that the storm takes a really wide turn....it's pretty far east of Cape Hattaras but then it starts coming almost due north just barely E of the BM into the Gulf of Maine.

Out around the cape then into the GOM, Late bloomer look.

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

i'm selling the ukmet, hard

I'm locking in the ukmet, hard.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I just happen to remember ... but it came hugely west on over previous cycle ( 00z)... 

I just looked its west of 0z at 12z too.

[ROOSTA]

I think it's gonna snow. 
This set-up is "CLASSIC"
Whether it be reports of 100mph gusts, blizzard conditions, or a CF that has 2' cut-off amounts over a stretch of 10 miles. This baby is gonna have it all.
Disclaimer: "As depicted NOW"
And of course BOMBS AWAY!!!  

[JC-CT]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

I'm locking in the ukmet, hard.

noted, good luck

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hopefully we’ve seen the western goalposts on the cmc and gfs… seem like a subtle east tick on the op runs today 

Ens are continuing west 

[BuildingScienceWx]

Def a west and "slower" lean

[George001]

Imagine if we had the Canadian track with the Euros 940s mb low

[weathafella]

Even NAVGEM is ICON’s daddy.   A few days left before a brother asks for rpm....

[CT Valley Dryslot]

A majority of members are west of the mean.

Using this view to ensure all members are visible.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Even NAVGEM is ICON’s daddy.   A few days left before a brother asks for rpm....

and all the while, the KING been nailing this storm for days. king JMA, that is

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

A majority of members are west of the mean.

Using this view to ensure all members are visible.

Looks like a track just east of the cape there with those western members 

[weathafella]

The old axiom is the big ones hug the coast and this may follow.   With that said, such a dynamically wrapped up system will snow much closer to the low center vs normal on the west side of it.

[PhineasC]

I’d rather look at the CMC over the UKMET, at least at the surface. UKMET is a schizophrenic model. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think its going to track far enough west to give me less than 1'.

[dendrite]

The chickens are more agitated than normal. I think they sense something.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

I’d rather look at the CMC over the UKMET, at least at the surface. UKMET is a schizophrenic model. 

BuT wHaT aBoUt VeRiFiCaTiOn ScOrEs???

[Lava Rock]

If this doesn't materialize into something significant, break out the nooses.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dendrite said:

The chickens are more agitated than normal. I think they sense something.

Will you stroke it or choke it to calm them?

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, klw said:

Just as long as it doesn't end up with the name Lucy ...

The potential exists for one of the all time Lucys...

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

If this doesn't materialize into something significant, break out the nooses.

Jim Cantore is already on his way to BOS. It's over.

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Icon is too inconsistent. Sometimes its ok. 

Can be applied to all models (I'm not defending the ICON, ha).  Just "inconsistent but sometimes ok" sounds like a good weather model description.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think its going to track far enough west to give me less than 1'.

Probably not, but the hook is always a worry on these southern streamers. But Tip is also right that there is a limit to this...the trough axis is pretty far east already when this starts rapidly gaining latitude.