Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lol that 958mb over the BM on the EPS is cute.

On the next frame there is a member that is 946 just east of the Cape. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I'm honestly fascinated that it's been locked in on that look for the last day or two. When was the last time the JMA had the right idea? Has it ever happened?

Feb 06

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

On the next frame there is a member that is 946 just east of the Cape. 

George drew that on that panel.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

On the next frame there is a member that is 946 just east of the Cape. 

I honestly think at that point, if they are that deep, it must be so phased that it keeps moving along. Could be just a bias on my part, but I feel like the biggest snow totals come from like 970-980mb deals.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I honestly think at that point, if they are that deep, it must be so phased that it keeps moving along. Could be just a bias on my part, but I feel like the biggest snow totals come from like 970-980mb deals.

Or you get weird pockets of bad snow growth a la Boxing Day.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Or you get weird pockets of bad snow growth a la Boxing Day.

That was just bc of track....no dry air in N NJ LOL

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I honestly think at that point, if they are that deep, it must be so phased that it keeps moving along. Could be just a bias on my part, but I feel like the biggest snow totals come from like 970-980mb deals.

Or it’s occluding. You typically want to be in the goods during the period of max strengthening. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Or it’s occluding. You typically want to be in the goods during the period of max strengthening. 

Right...that, too. 

[mahk_webstah]

A very personal question here but, my flight in from London arrives at 1 PM Saturday. What do you think? There are no flights available for me to get in on Friday evening. Trust me I’ve already looked at that fully.  In the relevance and context of this thread, I guess what I’m really asking is is the tendency gonna be to slow down or speed up do you think in this sort of set up?

[dendrite]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

On the next frame there is a member that is 946 just east of the Cape. 

lol

[Typhoon Tip]

JMA is naked stripped down model. A purer nonhydrostatic projection … not as gummed up, it’s like exposing a basic look at major physical kinematics effecting a system outcome - I think. 

[dendrite]

There’s a few doozies in there. Goodbye Scoot on this one.

[dryslot]

Those would produce 2' of sand.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s a few doozies in there. Goodbye Scoot on this one.

we pray! 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Those would produce 2' of sand.

Why sand?

[dendrite]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Why sand?

Ripped apart by wind.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Why sand?

The wind would destroy the dendrites.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Why sand?

It would blow all the sand from Scooters house on the water in S Wey to your house in Westborough

[PhineasC]

23 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

A very personal question here but, my flight in from London arrives at 1 PM Saturday. What do you think? There are no flights available for me to get in on Friday evening. Trust me I’ve already looked at that fully.  In the relevance and context of this thread, I guess what I’m really asking is is the tendency gonna be to slow down or speed up do you think in this sort of set up?

Good chance the UKMET will show this hitting London.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That would probably produce a hellacious coastal front along the coast 

[CoastalWx]

I’d take that, I’m in the eyewall.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’d take that, I’m in the eyeball.

Who cares about dendrites when you have category two winds sculpting 20’ drifts 

[butterfish55]

I’d take that, I’m in the eyewall.

Josh Morgerman will be staying at your house

[IowaStorm05]

This seems very far away. I’m not being mean, just honest. Especially with the models having a history of teasing the bear.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

This seems very far away. I’m not being mean, just honest. Especially with the models having a history of teasing the bear.

You're so mean. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

This seems very far away. I’m not being mean, just honest. Especially with the models having a history of teasing the bear.

Its also been poked a few times too.

[eduggs]

Those few tucked EPS members are pretty compact with the precip. field until the SLP is near the Cape. I'm not sure if places west of the NY border - NYC, POU, ALB - see warnings snows on any of those.

Even the CMC was pretty limited on the western quadrant. If the low starts offshore, there is no initial overrunning until you get pretty far east or north.

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Who cares about dendrites when you have category two winds sculpting 20’ drifts 

Yeah could care less about dendrites lol. 

[TheBudMan]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will probably get something out tonight just introducing the threat...nothing too deep. I need to be careful bc I feel like I have been crying wolf all season long, especially early bc I was gung ho on a nice December due to the blocking signal. Def more measured with this so I don't feel like an ass again.

 

Is George part of the staff at easternmassweather ?  Perhaps he can write the blog post tonight ?