Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Solid big boy hits 

No big boys in nina though.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No big boys in nina though.

Counting those chickens before they’ve hatched 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No big boys in nina though.

Very true.... just big girls!! ;-)

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Counting those chickens before they’ve hatched 

Nope not me, you missed the joke. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No big boys in nina though.

Hallucinogens kicking in ?

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I think the GFS OP resolution matters. And I also think the GEFS tend to shift with the OP, rendering them relatively unpredictive of true spread and likely trend. The 18z GFS was pretty ugly. There's still time, but once this gets inside 5 days or so, you don't want to have to rely on massive model errors.

It does matter, But if they followed the OP there should have been more east of the mean.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nope not me, you missed the joke. 

Been out of the loop since Thursday, so I guess so,

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

thx, what I suspected

 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

yeah, those "just outside of the bm" members really weren't very good for much of subforum.

[PhineasC]

We are definitely still far enough out that I could see waking up to a 06z GFS run that runs right along the coast and it wouldn't be a surprise.

That said, we need to see the op runs look better and move well west given we all know more rightward shifts are likely once we get within 48 hours. Seems to always happen.

[Baroclinic Zone]

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

We are definitely still far enough out that I could see waking up to a 06z GFS run that runs right along the coast and it wouldn't be a surprise.

That said, we need to see the op runs look better and move well west given we all know more rightward shifts are likely once we get within 48 hours. Seems to always happen.

Yep.  This can still come further west.

[eduggs]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It does matter, But if they followed the OP there should have been more east of the mean.

I mean that they trend with the OP, not that they are perfectly clustered around it.

The next few runs will be telling I think. If the GFS and Euro OPs shift west, then it's probably a serious threat. But if the ensembles continue to be west of the OP and the OP doesn't budge, that's a flag against the ensembles.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I mean that they trend with the OP, not that they are perfectly clustered around it.

The next few runs will be telling I think. If the GFS and Euro OPs shift west, then it's probably a serious threat. But if the ensembles continue to be west of the OP and the OP doesn't budge, that's a flag against the ensembles.

At what point though? I'm thinking there is still some time, This year OP run models have not been very good even as we get close to the events,  I usually start to pay more attention to the OP runs inside day 3 or 4.

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

At what point though? I'm thinking there is still some time, This year OP run models have not been very good even as we get close to the events,  I usually start to pay more attention to the OP runs inside day 3 or 4.

There's time for sure, but not as much as there used to be. I actually think the OP inter-model mean has been really good this winter overall inside about 5 days.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just treat the OP run as one of the ensembles, until within 2-4 days

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Just treat the OP run as one of the ensembles, until within 2-4 days

That's been where i have been at.

[78Blizzard]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

At what point though? I'm thinking there is still some time, This year OP run models have not been very good even as we get close to the events,  I usually start to pay more attention to the OP runs inside day 3 or 4.

 

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

There's time for sure, but not as much as there used to be. I actually think the OP inter-model mean has been really good this winter overall inside about 5 days.

Yet based on a GFS OP run we started this thread at day 7...  The ensembles at that time bore little resemblance to the OP.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is much more amplified. toss the OP

That actually takes a significant amount of member ballast to move the mean that distinctively ... 

The operational version might be a pube better than the 12z stinker it gave us, but in terms of whole-scale indicators, that ens means huge by comparison/significance.  The operational version is odd..  

But the Euro vs it's ens mean is sort of doing something similar - tho I don't know about magnitude- the mean looked better than the functional version. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s a pretty strong signal at hr126.

More impressed - personally - at the bodily shift NW of the entire suite mean, and yet ...there's still moderate spread NW toward Cape Cod, with some members down exotically deep. 

The operational version is a pretty dramatic outlier at this point -

[Snowcrazed71]

I have to say. I kind of enjoy the anticipation of what may happen. We know that at some point we will see another major ( top 10 ) type of storm for a pretty good amount of us in this forum. Thats what keeps me going ( and coming here ). Its something that I have loved since I was as young as I can remember. 

[GCWarrior]

I’m pulling for the big win by the Canadian! 

[Typhoon Tip]

Sorry ... I was watching NFL ... but the ICON extrapolates to a very deep powerful solution somewhere between the Del Marva and Cape Code.

I realize this model is both unproven, but not doing well in pursuit of that evaluation - either - but I'm sure someone's already mentioned.

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw - the GEPs mean is considerably west of priors at 12z.  Like the GEFs, it carries some exotically deep solutions almost nicking the outer arm of Cape...  It's very tucked... Also like the GEFs, the deeper members are tend within that NW spread

[Typhoon Tip]

I would like to see either:

- the Euro send along one big solution ...even if it wants to return to it's weird beedy-eyed obsession to deliberately not create a cyclone out of this, if it did that just once that has value in this.

- the GFS return to one of those previous big nuggets ... again, if it wants to go back to sleep for a couple days.

Those would be tells - they aren't absolutely necessary, but fact the matter is, neither of those two models are going to bust at 2 days lead as dramatically as they are presently parting company with their ens families.  So either the means will go to them, or they will go to the means. 

The funny thing is, the 12z GGEM is the only operational model that looks the most like it's ens mean at this point.   I suppose if this ends up being the storm of the season ( thus far..) we'll have to remember that in post-mortem

[PhineasC]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I would like to see either:

- the Euro send along one big solution ...even if it wants to return to it's weird beedy-eyed obsession to deliberately not create a cyclone out of this, if it did that just once that has value in this.

- the GFS return to one of those previous big nuggets ... again, if it wants to go back to sleep for a couple days.

Those would be tells - they aren't absolutely necessary, but fact the matter is, neither of those two models are going to bust at 2 days lead as dramatically as they are presently parting company with their ens families.  So either the means will go to them, or they will go to the means. 

The funny thing is, the 12z GGEM is the only operational model that looks the most like it's ens mean at this point.   I suppose if this ends up being the storm of the season ( thus far..) we'll have to remember that in post-mortem

The CMC and RGEM take a lot of abuse but I have noticed they sometimes do quietly lock onto the general idea and just spit out run after run in the ballpark with little deviation while everyone is focused on every little burp of the NAM/GFS/Euro.

I find the ICON and UKMET to be much more schizophrenic but people still talk about them for some reason.

Sometimes the Canadian models are way wrong though and they can cave instantly.

[MJO812]

Eps just upped the ante

[JC-CT]

What is the ratio of Kev's "confused face" reactions to his other reactions?

9:1?

[tunafish]

Good analysis here from Homenuk 

 

 

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, tunafish said:

Good analysis here from Homenuk 

 

 

 

remind me again, is that earthlight?

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

remind me again, is that earthlight?

Yes