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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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Key to remember that last nights run was an outlier from the EPS. This run just aligns more closely to what the Euro suite has been saying the whole time, supporting mostly a flat/suppressed system. We'll see over the coming days if more members start to move towards the amped GFS or vice versa.

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2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The pattern is very close on both models, it is simply a difference of where the low tries to crank up.

As burrel alluded to though does a blend of gfs and euro produce more snow or do the synoptics (too amped= warm w/ice but less amped not enough precip?) on this particular set-up just not going to work that way.  

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16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

All I know is 5 straight weeks of winter storm tracking is ridiculous. I thought Mother Nature was giving us a break?!?! All this for 3.4” of snow and a couple flizzards 

I am completely happy with it ! Rare to have a pattern like this and I love it!. Not a fan of 67 degrees and rain.... lol

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Changes on the ensembles looking not so good for western areas...

EPS was already pretty suppressed and dry at 00z last night and its even worse today. 

63k060.gif.54452c13f8a180106ee8f13513860170.gif

 

And despite the super amped OP run, the GEFS is moving that direction too. 

63k00q.gif.7842444e8975a791861644c1a239ee54.gif

 

We'll see where things end up, but there's no questioning this has been the name of the game in this pattern after we scored that first storm in January. 

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6 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Changes on the ensembles looking not so good for western areas...

EPS was already pretty suppressed and dry at 00z last night and its even worse today. 

63k060.gif.54452c13f8a180106ee8f13513860170.gif

 

And despite the super amped OP run, the GEFS is moving that direction too. 

63k00q.gif.7842444e8975a791861644c1a239ee54.gif

 

We'll see where things end up, but there's no questioning this has been the name of the game in this pattern after we scored that first storm in January. 

Ouch, that is a terrible look for western areas and its only 5 days out

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Suppressed is good at this point.  Rather it be that way than too far NW.

Good for some maybe, but those of us on the far western side of the forum have either been completely missed to the southeast or barely fringed by the last two systems. 

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Just some observations since I took notes on all the model runs for the previous two major winter storms this year.

With the big january 16th storm. the GFS was the most "wet" in my back yard for the 84-120 hour timeframe. It typically showed 1 to 1.6 inches of liquid with the event. I  verified with 1.2 inches of liquid. The Ukmet was by far the worst in this timeframe as it had nothing to .05 inch totals for several runs. The Euro was also consistently too dry showing .4-.6 inch totals in this timeframe.

With the big Triangle snow storm late month... The gfs consistently showed my back yard getting 0 to .05 inches of liquid; never more than that. Meanwhile the ukmet and Euro had me getting .25 to .65 of liquid for most of their runs in this time frame. I verified with just a trace of snow; let's call it .01 of liquid.

So for both of those winter storms, the gfs was far and away the best model at predicting total liquid in my back yard in the 84-120hr timeframe... 

(this is very much fwiw and probably just doesn't mean anything) lol

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26 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Changes on the ensembles looking not so good for western areas...

EPS was already pretty suppressed and dry at 00z last night and its even worse today. 

63k060.gif.54452c13f8a180106ee8f13513860170.gif

 

And despite the super amped OP run, the GEFS is moving that direction too. 

63k00q.gif.7842444e8975a791861644c1a239ee54.gif

 

We'll see where things end up, but there's no questioning this has been the name of the game in this pattern after we scored that first storm in January. 

GFS mean is a little misleading there as lots of members(including the operational) have precip falling before 1am Sunday. That's not capture in the old run b/c the storm has been sped up a good 6 hours today.

In fact, verbatim the storm is pretty much over in Western NC/SC at 1am Sunday on the operational.

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27 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Changes on the ensembles looking not so good for western areas...

EPS was already pretty suppressed and dry at 00z last night and its even worse today. 

63k060.gif.54452c13f8a180106ee8f13513860170.gif

 

And despite the super amped OP run, the GEFS is moving that direction too. 

63k00q.gif.7842444e8975a791861644c1a239ee54.gif

 

We'll see where things end up, but there's no questioning this has been the name of the game in this pattern after we scored that first storm in January. 

For what it’s worth, can anyone recall snow on the beach 3 weekends in a row? It’d be wild if we trend that way.

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35 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Changes on the ensembles looking not so good for western areas...

EPS was already pretty suppressed and dry at 00z last night and its even worse today. 

63k060.gif.54452c13f8a180106ee8f13513860170.gif

 

And despite the super amped OP run, the GEFS is moving that direction too. 

63k00q.gif.7842444e8975a791861644c1a239ee54.gif

 

We'll see where things end up, but there's no questioning this has been the name of the game in this pattern after we scored that first storm in January. 

Agreed. The Ensembles have not been bullish in general anyways compared to the OPS, and the Ensembles continue to trend further east and towards a way more suppressed version compared to the GFS.

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That storm on the GFS looked a bit uh...cracked out to me. ULL driving across the apps then cranking a bit off the coast with the secondary low. On the SFC you end up with 3 lows all around each other. That Tuesday storm looks more appealing to me. But this has been a crazy winter for ya'll so anything is on the table I guess. 

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1 hour ago, chris624wx said:

I'll certainly take another coastal low or slider in in Hampton Roads! 

Just hope the eventual low center doesn't hug the beach or we won't have the temperature profile.

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