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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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On 12/26/2022 at 4:19 PM, GaWx said:

Thanks and YW, Mr. Wedge!

 The GEFS retains the favorable solid +PNA/-AO forecast of yesterday as the 2nd week in January arrives. In addition, the MJO model consensus progs still have a very slow moving low amp upper left side path that actually starts near Jan 1 and persists, which in combo with the progged +PNA/-AO based on history/analogs back to the mid 1970s would scream a decent shot at an extensive period of cold SE potential from sometime within the 2nd week of January onward.

 The main fly in the ointment (there usually is one) indexwise for cold potential is that the NAO is projected to approach neutral rather than be negative. But it is falling steadily from a stout +NAO preceding it. Perhaps it would head to a -NAO by midmonth as that's beyond the two week forecast. All 8 of the SE cold January solid +PNA/-AO analogs have a moderate to strong -NAO except for 1961 (weak +NAO). So, that says it would still be possible to have quite a cold January without a -NAO. However, the chances would obviously be significantly better with it.
 

 Looking at the four non-cold January +PNA/-AO analogs, three of them had either a neutral or weakly +NAO. Then again, 2 of those 3 were super-El Niño's. 
 

 The 12Z EPS, similar to recent runs, confirms the transition to a west coast ridge/solid +PNA popping from strongly negative Aleutian heights late in the run. This could easily turn out to be a fun month overall for cold lovers. For warm lovers, please don't shoot the messenger plus you'll have your week in early January, regardless.

Update two days later:

- AO per GEFS still looks to most likely go back to negative in early January and a sub -1 for January as a whole is favored per analogs already shown. Keep in mind though that the spread is very wide (+1 to -4 for day 14).

- PNA still looking to remain positive although not as high as shown two days ago, when a return to ~+1 was favored. Now it's aiming toward only ~+0.5. Analogs I was showing had minimum of +0.5. Going forward, the PNA progs will continue to be crucial in looking ahead to potential colder prospects for January after the first week.

- NAO still looking to fall back from the current strong positive, but not as much as how it looked two days ago, when it was aiming for neutral. Now it is aiming for ~+0.5.

- MJO still aiming for upper left side low amp, but now looks to loop back/stall in phase 7 instead of slowly heading toward 8. 

 - The 0Z EPS still has a +PNA late but it and the Aleutian low are weaker than shown two days ago.

 

 Summary: Although the solid -AO prospects for January overall have remained steady and the analogs back that, the other four things (PNA, NAO, MJO, EPS) don't look as favorable for cold as they looked two days ago. I also just learned that record warmth remains in the Maritime Continent/Indonesian waters. That in itself has been a factor helping to favor the southeast ridge pattern in recent years. That in combination with the current La Niña means everpresent higher than normal chance for SE ridge to dominate at times.

 So, all of this tells me that the chance for a cold January 8-31 overall isn't as high as it looked two days ago. Good/bad trends for warm/cold lovers vs how it looked two days ago. I'll keep following these five factors going forward as there's lots of uncertainty that far out in the future.

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56 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Update two days later:

- AO per GEFS still looks to most likely go back to negative in early January and a sub -1 for January as a whole is favored per analogs already shown. Keep in mind though that the spread is very wide (+1 to -4 for day 14).

- PNA still looking to remain positive although not as high as shown two days ago, when a return to ~+1 was favored. Now it's aiming toward only ~+0.5. Analogs I was showing had minimum of +0.5. Going forward, the PNA progs will continue to be crucial in looking ahead to potential colder prospects for January after the first week.

- NAO still looking to fall back from the current strong positive, but not as much as how it looked two days ago, when it was aiming for neutral. Now it is aiming for ~+0.5.

- MJO still aiming for upper left side low amp, but now looks to loop back/stall in phase 7 instead of slowly heading toward 8. 

 - The 0Z EPS still has a +PNA late but it and the Aleutian low are weaker than shown two days ago.

 

 Summary: Although the solid -AO prospects for January overall have remained steady and the analogs back that, the other four things (PNA, NAO, MJO, EPS) don't look as favorable for cold as they looked two days ago. I also just learned that record warmth remains in the Maritime Continent/Indonesian waters. That in itself has been a factor helping to favor the southeast ridge pattern in recent years. That in combination with the current La Niña means everpresent higher than normal chance for SE ridge to dominate at times.

 So, all of this tells me that the chance for a cold January 8-31 overall isn't as high as it looked two days ago. Good/bad trends for warm/cold lovers vs how it looked two days ago. I'll keep following these five factors going forward as there's lots of uncertainty that far out in the future.

Could be January will be our above normal month this season and February will be our below normal month or we just get above normal through all the season. 

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Certainly not seeing anything in the operational models today.  Was hoping to see some hint of change in the long range.  One thing that has remained consistent is the lobe of cold air over eastern Canada during mid month. 

As already posted, the indices aren't bad but don't look as good as last few days.  Hoping that is not a trend.  Hate to waste last half of January in an unfavorable pattern.  Still lots of time for change.  In meantime, I'm going to enjoy golfing in 60 degree weather this weekend!  

Also Buckeye needs to start a new year thread...

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1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Certainly not seeing anything in the operational models today.  Was hoping to see some hint of change in the long range.  One thing that has remained consistent is the lobe of cold air over eastern Canada during mid month. 

As already posted, the indices aren't bad but don't look as good as last few days.  Hoping that is not a trend.  Hate to waste last half of January in an unfavorable pattern.  Still lots of time for change.  In meantime, I'm going to enjoy golfing in 60 degree weather this weekend!  

Also Buckeye needs to start a new year thread...

I started the last one :lol:  Everyone should get in on the fun ^_^  

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Still intrigued by the 7-10th timeframe. Cold air seems marginal but it’s one of those setups we’ve cashed in on with a lead wave followed by coastal development on the stalled boundary behind it while cooler air seeps in. By no means a slam duck but these are ones that tend to be less likely to cut and usually won’t be sampled well until we get closer so there being a signal across guidance is encouraging 

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On 12/28/2022 at 1:27 PM, GaWx said:

Update two days later:

- AO per GEFS still looks to most likely go back to negative in early January and a sub -1 for January as a whole is favored per analogs already shown. Keep in mind though that the spread is very wide (+1 to -4 for day 14).

- PNA still looking to remain positive although not as high as shown two days ago, when a return to ~+1 was favored. Now it's aiming toward only ~+0.5. Analogs I was showing had minimum of +0.5. Going forward, the PNA progs will continue to be crucial in looking ahead to potential colder prospects for January after the first week.

- NAO still looking to fall back from the current strong positive, but not as much as how it looked two days ago, when it was aiming for neutral. Now it is aiming for ~+0.5.

- MJO still aiming for upper left side low amp, but now looks to loop back/stall in phase 7 instead of slowly heading toward 8. 

 - The 0Z EPS still has a +PNA late but it and the Aleutian low are weaker than shown two days ago.

 

 Summary: Although the solid -AO prospects for January overall have remained steady and the analogs back that, the other four things (PNA, NAO, MJO, EPS) don't look as favorable for cold as they looked two days ago. I also just learned that record warmth remains in the Maritime Continent/Indonesian waters. That in itself has been a factor helping to favor the southeast ridge pattern in recent years. That in combination with the current La Niña means everpresent higher than normal chance for SE ridge to dominate at times.

 So, all of this tells me that the chance for a cold January 8-31 overall isn't as high as it looked two days ago. Good/bad trends for warm/cold lovers vs how it looked two days ago. I'll keep following these five factors going forward as there's lots of uncertainty that far out in the future.

Followup vs 24 hours ago regarding January indicators I've been following:

(0Z GEFS based for first three)

-AO not only held serve but actually looks a bit stronger. The mean now drops it to ~-2 ~Jan 9th. Keep in mind that per strong -AO Dec analogs, a sub -1 AO for the subsequent January is favored. 

- +PNA held serve at ~+0.5 (borderline weak/moderate late in the run) but didn't come back to the ~+1 of three days ago

- +NAO still at the end but weaker with +0.3 vs +0.5 yesterday although still above the near 0 from the run of three days ago.

- MJO is back closer to the favorable look for cold of three days ago headed to slow moving low amplitude phase 8/1 instead of stalling for a long time in phase 7 per yesterday

- 12Z EPS is even weaker with the Aleutian trough/+PNA vs the already weaker run of yesterday 

 

 In summary in regard to SE cold prospects Jan 8-31 overall vs yesterday, AO and MJO look better/as favorable as any recent run, the NAO looks very slightly better, and the EPS looks worse. We've got an eternity before this gets here and thus it is very much up in the air. The biggest keys for me would be whether or not the PNA goes back to a stronger + and the NAO goes back to neutral in future runs.

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 The ensemble model consensus continues to suggests no return to a cold dominated pattern in the SE US and the E US in general through the next 7-10 days. After that it is a tougher call as is typically the case when going out past 10 days. But admittedly nothing exciting on the cold side is yet showing on the ensembles in the 11-15 despite the MJO still progged to be in a supportive position to allow for cold to dominate once into mid January. The 0Z EPS was pretty close to yesterday's EPS with only a weak to borderline moderate +PNA after day 10. The GEFS still has a moderate +PNA (~+0.6 vs +0.5 yesterday) while the AO forecast is still solidly negative after day 10 (still sub -1). But the NAO is a little higher today (near +0.5 vs +0.3 yesterday), which is not supportive of cold.

 Expect model volatility in the 11-15 due to the conflicting signals of cold supportive MJO/AO and slight cold support from the modest +PNA vs the support for mild from the +NAO. I'd think a cool off down at least to near normal averaged out would be quite doable. 

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51 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The ensemble model consensus continues to suggests no return to a cold dominated pattern in the SE US and the E US in general through the next 7-10 days. After that it is a tougher call as is typically the case when going out past 10 days. But admittedly nothing exciting on the cold side is yet showing on the ensembles in the 11-15 despite the MJO still progged to be in a supportive position to allow for cold to dominate once into mid January. The 0Z EPS was pretty close to yesterday's EPS with only a weak to borderline moderate +PNA after day 10. The GEFS still has a moderate +PNA (~+0.6 vs +0.5 yesterday) while the AO forecast is still solidly negative after day 10 (still sub -1). But the NAO is a little higher today (near +0.5 vs +0.3 yesterday), which is not supportive of cold.

 Expect model volatility in the 11-15 due to the conflicting signals of cold supportive MJO/AO and slight cold support from the modest +PNA vs the support for mild from the +NAO. I'd think a cool off down at least to near normal averaged out would be quite doable. 

We’re going to initiate our own pattern change via snowpack next weekend.

 

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 I see nothing exciting on the entire 12Z EPS as well as other ensembles through the end of the runs suggesting a return to a cold pattern. If accurate, that would mean that a new cold pattern would not be until midmonth at the earliest. Let's see what happens. 

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