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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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Hopefully things turn in January. Modeling for the system tomorrow explains why we can’t have nice things: strong coastal storm development with a nice northwest trend over the last 24 hours and cold dry air preceding the event during good climo… but Great Lakes low kills HP cold source and we’re stuck with rain

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Hopefully things turn in January. Modeling for the system tomorrow explains why we can’t have nice things: strong coastal storm development with a nice northwest trend over the last 24 hours and cold dry air preceding the event during good climo… but Great Lakes low kills HP cold source and we’re stuck with rain

It's soooooo close, yet soooooooooo far  :(   

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14 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

It's been weeks of model runs really.

They have been showing change, albeit, it keeps getting delayed.  I know it’s not the best setup synoptically and the past few years haven’t been kind but isn’t today the first day of winter? 

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50 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

They have been showing change, albeit, it keeps getting delayed.  I know it’s not the best setup synoptically and the past few years haven’t been kind but isn’t today the first day of winter? 

Yes, but we don't really get the luxury of a full astronomical winter.  About 2/3rds at best.

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1 hour ago, RT1980 said:

They have been showing change, albeit, it keeps getting delayed.  I know it’s not the best setup synoptically and the past few years haven’t been kind but isn’t today the first day of winter? 

Well the issue is feedback on the MJO, the PNA is at record negatives this year so that means that virtually for us the SER is in control until the PNA settles down. The NAO and AO will be not help unless the SER gives in which currently doesn't look that way. We may have a slight window but we are shattering recod highs and record low highs left and right. This December has been way above normal for the SE. I mean we are breaking record by like 5 or 6 degrees.  That is extremely impressive and very telling. 

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1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

Yes, but we don't really get the luxury of a full astronomical winter.  About 2/3rds at best.

It’s always been that way as far as I can remember.  Usually late January into February for our better chances.  Everything has been so weird the past few years, who know.

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Well the issue is feedback on the MJO, the PNA is at record negatives this year so that means that virtually for us the SER is in control until the PNA settles down. The NAO and AO will be not help unless the SER gives in which currently doesn't look that way. We may have a slight window but we are shattering recod highs and record low highs left and right. This December has been way above normal for the SE. I mean we are breaking record by like 5 or 6 degrees.  That is extremely impressive and very telling. 

Yeah,  this current winter is seeming to shape up like last wit BA Nov and AA Dec.   The SER has been strong for what seems like a decade. I’m not saying it’s gonna flip and we’ll get record snows, I’m just saying it’s still too early to write it off as some have.

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Just now, RT1980 said:

Yeah,  this current winter is seeming to shape up like last wit BA Nov and AA Dec.   The SER has been strong for what seems like a decade. I’m not saying it’s gonna flip and we’ll get record snows, I’m just saying it’s still too early to write it off as some have.

Im not writing off winter either but there are a lot of negatives and not a lot of positives currently but that doesn't mean we cannot score but the PAC NW is going to have to calm down. 

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4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Good grief has everyone collectively memory-holed December 2015 which to this day is the craziest month-long torch I've ever seen? This month hasn't been ideal but Christmas Eve 2015 there was a dew point of 72 in Wilmington. 

Yeah I remember it was 70 Christmas day here in the mountains.  Short sleeves and grilling weather for sure. We actually had some back to back very warm Christmases. 

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Insane looking at the models for the next few days here. Starting Friday is another extended stretch of weather you’d more likely see in Orlando or Daytona, not Charleston. I wouldn’t be shocked to see 80° hit on Tuesday or Wednesday a little inland. Just bonkers how the warm air will not subside in the South this year, you almost forget that the average high is indeed around 60°

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