GaWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Though it may be subtle, the 12Z CMC especially and the GFS to a lesser extent had changes vs the 6Z/0Z that went in a good direction toward possibly reviving the 12/26 threat. The CMC has a storm form offshore the SE that actually gives some sleet to coastal NC while the GFS has a W GOM low (though weak) form for the first time in 5 runs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Now I'm being funny in saying this... will DT now Woof at the incoming rain? LolSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 We are still a week or more away. When was the last time we tracked anything that came to fruition 7-10 days away? I’ll write this off once we are within 5 days. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Based on latest runs I’m cliff diving on both storms. Going to find a tall cliff, I got sucked in again. I will never learn . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 In my oppinion. Which isn’t worth much. We should wait until Monday before we throw in the towel. The ingredients are there, once we can get a better sampling of the data and the models can really get their calculations dialed in we could be back in this thing. Either way, should be a dusting of snow on the ground with cold and mood flakes for Christmas. That’s a win for me man. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Euro says we all picked a bad day to stop sniffing glue. Break out the ponchos unless you are in Indiana. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 34 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Euro says we all picked a bad day to stop sniffing glue. Break out the ponchos unless you are in Indiana. The Euro is not far from wintry in part of the SE ~12/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Funny thing is, the Euro wasn't as bad as the 12z GFS LOLSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Get ready to chase low topped supercells. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Sums up last 48 hours:Meanwhile I am just happy we having a cold Christmas for bloody once Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The 12Z GFS was as mentioned the first run in five with a western GOM low on 12/26. But it was very weak and later sheared out. Now the 18Z GFS is still another step closer to a potential big deal very deep into the SE late 12/25 through 12/26. H5 flow is WSW instead of W along the Gulf coast and there's more Gulf and S half of FL qpf. Some qpf even reaches the NC OB with temps barely above 32. Very cold air is then still deep down into the SE. Keep watching this period as it clearly has potential to be a really big deal with just some not so big adjustments, including the common NW track adjustments. Whereas 12/25-12/26 is still somewhat out in fantasyland, it is persisting as a threat as we get closer and closer. The first GFS run with a deep SE winter storm late 12/25 through 12/26 was the 0Z 12/14 run. At that point, it was 12 days out. That period is now only 8 days out and the threat has still not gone even with no actual winter storm yet reappearing on the GFS. Getting a winter storm deep into the SE is rare. But the Arctic high progged for 12/22 in MT is knocking on the door of a new record high going back to the late 1800s. So, the general setup is very highly anomalous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 21 hours ago, GaWx said: For a wx history lover like me, the highest Montana/N Wyoming SLP next Thursday will be fun to track. That's because the 12Z ICON forecasted a max of 1067 mb on 12/22 and both the 12Z GFS and Euro forecasted 1065 mb on 12/22 in that area, which would be a new record high for the lower 48! The highest on record back to the late 1800s is 1064, set in Miles City, MT, on 12/24/1983. The 2nd highest is 1063.3 mb, which was at Helena, MT, on 1/10/1962. But the other three main models are lower. On 12/22 the 12Z JMA is at 1061, CMC is 1060, and the UKMET is only near 1050. So, we'll see whether or not these ICON/Euro/GFS runs end up too high. The odds are that they're too high but that remains to be seen. US pressure records from here: https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/world-and-us-anticyclonic-high-barometric-pressure-records.html Followup with todays 12Z models for highest SLP on 12/22 in MT/WY along with change vs the runs from 24 hours earlier: GFS 1068 (+3) JMA 1068 (+7) ICON 1065 (-2) Euro 1064 (-1) CMC 1063 (+3) UKMET 1053 (+3) AVG 1063.5 (+2) Record 1064 The point is that we're headed to a very highly anomalous setup next week. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Good points GaWx! Hope it works out for many of us!!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I guess the 1 thing I am surprised about, even if this storm doesn't work out, where in the world is the active pattern at afterwards... we have all the right teleconnections in place.... their should be some awesome clown maps showing up after Christmas and it aint.... very frustrating Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 The 0Z ICON has outdone itself with a forecasted 1069 mb on 12/22!! Highest US SLP I have found so far on any model for that day. That's 31.57"! Record high is 31.42". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 GFS looks slightly different tonight. Maybe I am just seeing things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 GFS looks slightly different tonight. Maybe I am just seeing things. But it is, taller heights on the ridgeSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 It still isn't close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: It still isn't close Slight wiggles SE the last 3 runs. Could help the mountain folks and western NC, SC, and N GA cash out on a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 0z so far:GFS: Improved ICON: improved CMC: improved Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 GEFS trending good or bad? Anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 20 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: 0z so far: GFS: Improved ICON: improved CMC: improved Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk You can toss the UKMET in the improved department too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I find it quite interesting that the strongest of the cold will be mainly during the usually warmer MC MJO phases (4 and 5) per the GEFS and EPS. I wonder if this could end up as the coldest airmass with the MJO there since MJO daily records started in the middle 1970s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I think the writing is on the wall. This is going to be a cutter and I know that really stings just before Christmas. If you want snow, go to the mountains for some upslope behind the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 On 12/6/2022 at 8:56 AM, NorthHillsWx said: I predict Bastadi’s mega cold snap to be a 2-3 day stretch of below normal temps, proceeded and followed by near normal to above normal. The Pacific is relentless (la Niña) and it looks like the blocking from -NAO trends to be more neutral by mid month. This looks like a transient pattern shaping up to me, not a “pattern shift” that would lead to extended cold and snow chances in the south. GEFS and EPS are starting to meet in the middle Should just always go by this forecast in La Niña years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 As much as i want to give up on it… i cant… christmas 2010 storm still reminds me of why you never give up…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 53 minutes ago, bess said: As much as i want to give up on it… i cant… christmas 2010 storm still reminds me of why you never give up… . It's over, and I have a shoulder to cry on. This winter will probably be just like the last 3 here in central NC. Mostly above normal temps and a small snow storm may be squeezed in. Models showing the torch after this. See you guys in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 So you're telling me that I should be content with the dusting that I had on the ground this morning? (FWIW that's a heavy frost) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Congrats Indiana 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Could be a few spinups on the 23rd in the southeastern Coastal Plain of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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