GaWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I'm nowhere near giving up on 12/26 yet with it being still a week out. Here is the 12Z GFS: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Hope y'all want more rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 So, is no one thinking the ZR potential for Thursday the 22nd has the potential to eventually affect more of the Carolinas CAD- prone areas? -Decent highs up north -Traditional underestimation by the models -etc. 12z GFS shows a decent amount in Southwest VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, Shack said: So, is no one thinking the ZR potential for Thursday the 22nd has the potential to eventually affect more of the Carolinas CAD- prone areas? -Decent highs up north -Traditional underestimation by the models -etc. 12z GFS shows a decent amount in Southwest VA. I had similar thoughts. It could be a mess west of the blueridge with snow on the wrap around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 6:44 PM, GaWx said: Followup with todays 12Z models for highest SLP on 12/22 in MT/WY along with change vs the runs from 24 hours earlier: GFS 1068 (+3) JMA 1068 (+7) ICON 1065 (-2) Euro 1064 (-1) CMC 1063 (+3) UKMET 1053 (+3) AVG 1063.5 (+2) Record 1064 The point is that we're headed to a very highly anomalous setup next week. Update for 12Z runs today for the highest SLP in mb in the lower 48 on 12/22 vs runs from 24 hours ago: GFS 1068 (-1) ICON 1065 (0) JMA 1064 (-4) Euro 1061 (-3) CMC 1058 (-5) UKMET 1052 (-2) AVG 1061 (-3) Record 1064 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 The biggest thing with this is the cold, wind chills in the Atlanta area will be as low as -10 both Friday AM and Friday night. No above freezing here from overnight Thursday/Friday AM to Sunday afternoon and then only barely. Snow wise just flurries briefly behind the front. Not impressed with the following system, too positive tilt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 The Euro is forecasting KATL to stay at or colder than 32 on two straight days, 12/25-6. That doesn't occur often. It has been nearly nine years. When were the last times for this or longer over the last 50 years? 1/28-9/2014 1/8-9/2010 12/21-22/2000 1/4-5/1999 2/3-5/1996 1/15-16/1994 12/22-23/1989 1/6-8/1988 12/24-6/1983 1/10-14/1982 1/13-15/1978 1/17-19/1977 1/8-10/1973 There hasn't even been a single day not getting above 32 since 1/2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Anyone checked out the NAM for the system on the 20th… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 End of GFS is quite a strong SER. I have a feeling it’s this week or we have to punt we’ll into January for winter weather chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Gonna be quiet on here for a few weeks at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 39 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Gonna be quiet on here for a few weeks at least. The upcoming strong cold should keep it interesting here. Meanwhile, maps like these from the 0Z CMC are keeping me somewhat interested in ~12/26 as it wouldn't take a whole lot of adjustment for something still a week out to bring wintry precip at least to the SE coastal areas even with odds not high and getting lower: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 This event failed.....bigtime, for everyone here but even those all the way to southern Ohio. Even the model runs last night have the GFS shifting this further west. We may be talking a 500 mile shift west from 5 days ago before this is said and done. That's gonna leave a mark for this sub, especially as we all shiver through Christmas this weekend. Give me 48° and an afternoon of 9 holes on the course please. Sunny and cold sucks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Hands down, La Nina sucks! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Best advice I have for everyone to consider, if you get some spare time or a weekend where northwest flow is forecasted, don’t hesitate to head up with the family. A lot of people don’t realize it, but when they close the parkway for snow, it’s open to recreation. Take the sleds and enjoy. I know it’s never the same as snow in your backyard but it’ll satisfy the itch enough. I’m down in Burke County now, but always try to go up when a big flow event is forecasted. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, BooneWX said: Best advice I have for everyone to consider, if you get some spare time or a weekend where northwest flow is forecasted, don’t hesitate to head up with the family. A lot of people don’t realize it, but when they close the parkway for snow, it’s open to recreation. Take the sleds and enjoy. I know it’s never the same as snow in your backyard but it’ll satisfy the itch enough. I’m down in Burke County now, but always try to go up when a big flow event is forecasted. We drove up for Christmas 2020 since we couldn't see family to experience snow on Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 As I was out rounding in the hospital this morning, I noticed the clouds rolling in and temps in the 20's. AAAhhh, what could have been... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The NAO moves toward positive by the end of the month before heading back negative after the 1st. The PNA moves toward positive at the end of the month and remains slightly positive after the 1st. The latest from the CPC now has the La Nina lasting until February but in a waning state. Forecasts earlier in the fall had La Nina ending after the first of the year. Based on all this, my guess is after a relaxation of the cold at the end of the month, we could see another bout of cold in the east by the end of the first week in January. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 As I was out rounding in the hospital this morning, I noticed the clouds rolling in and temps in the 20's. AAAhhh, what could have been...No doubt. 36.3° currently with overcast skies.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Ya know what they say about the tail end of patterns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Ya know what they say about the tail end of patterns Lol, the ULL rounds the corner like one of those fair rides that gives you whiplash. Probably something like that is the only way we can score in this pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, olafminesaw said: Lol, the ULL rounds the corner like one of those fair rides that gives you whiplash. Probably something like that is the only way we can score in this pattern I was so optimistic when it made it to Louisiana and then it just stops dead in its tracks with CAD firmly entrenched to the north lol. We can’t get a break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I was so optimistic when it made it to Louisiana and then it just stops dead in its tracks with CAD firmly entrenched to the north lol. We can’t get a break. Retreating cold too. The Canadian looks intriguing though so, at least something to track I suppose 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1) I find it very interesting that the heart of the very cold plunge in the SE will be during the MJO "warm" (MC) phases 4 and 5 and outside the COD! That is obviously not a common occurrence. This shows that the MJO, like most indices, is just one "tool" among many to utilize for forecasting and that by itself isn't necessarily going to be the main driver. The main drivers appear to be the continued very strong -AO along with a moderate +PNA. 2) This 12Z ICON map, which is quite different from where the 0Z was going, is another that tells me that it is still not a safe bet that there won't be significant wintry precip of whatever variety in the SE ~12/26-7. Even though the odds are rather low based on the lack of that actually showing on the latest model consensus, I'm still focusing around that time for the possibility of a "surprise" based on pattern recognition. Whenever I see WSW or SW 500 mb flow over the top of a very cold Arctic airmass that is slow to pull out, I keep a wary eye. Keep in mind that this potential is still at least nearly a week out. That is far enough out for the very imperfect models to have a hard time, especially with the very highly anomalous setup associated with the progged near record breaking pressure in Montana in three days: 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Further to the above, 12Z Euro case in point! This period is hardly settled. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The 12Z JMA at 192 hours (12Z on 12/27) on TT has a strong wedge extending quite deep into the SE from a 1037 mb NE high and a weak N GOM low forming as the jet buckles. Precip is breaking out before hour 192 (late 12/26-early 12/27) over LA, C and S MS and AL, west central and SW GA, and NW FL with 850s between -2 C and +5C. Based on past Gulf lows with a strong wedge north of them and 850s this cold, this area of precip is likely mostly wintry of various forms, with snow falling in the N portion of the precip from far N LA to part of SW GA (where 850s are below 0C) and IP/ZR due to the strong wedge likely reaching almost to, if not to, the Gulf coast, including much of NW FL and as far SE as near Gainesville. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 hours ago, GaWx said: 1) I find it very interesting that the heart of the very cold plunge in the SE will be during the MJO "warm" (MC) phases 4 and 5 and outside the COD! That is obviously not a common occurrence. This shows that the MJO, like most indices, is just one "tool" among many to utilize for forecasting and that by itself isn't necessarily going to be the main driver. The main drivers appear to be the continued very strong -AO along with a moderate +PNA. The RMM indicates the MJO is just emerging from the unit circle and is forecast to evolve through phases 4/5/6 by most guidance heading into early January. More importantly, there is a 10-15 day lag between the RMM index and temperatures across the Southeast. The expected warmup towards the New Year is in line with what we're seeing here. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/18/2022 at 2:03 PM, GaWx said: Update for 12Z runs today for the highest SLP in mb in the lower 48 on 12/22 vs runs from 24 hours ago: GFS 1068 (-1) ICON 1065 (0) JMA 1064 (-4) Euro 1062 (-3) CMC 1059 (-5) UKMET 1052 (-2) AVG 1062 Record 1064 Update for 12Z runs today for the highest SLP in mb in the lower 48 on 12/22 vs runs from 24 hours ago: ICON 1068 (+3) GFS 1067 (-1) JMA 1063 (-1) Euro 1061 (-1) CMC 1061 (+2) UKMET 1051 (-1) AVG ~1062 (no change) Record 1064 UKMET as it has been on the other days I've checked is a strong outlier on the low side. If I were to throw out the lowest and highest (UKMET and ICON), I'd get an average of 1063, which compares to 1062.5 from 24 hours ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Canadian offering an interesting solution for after christmas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 29 minutes ago, JoshM said: Canadian offering an interesting solution for after christmas Still stuck in a 33 degree rain here at Lake Norman. Cheers to colder solutions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 GFS starting to sniff out what the Canadian was at 0z... Guess that means it won't happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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