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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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This threat is looking really promising, imo.  GFS seems like it's on the most amped/warm side of guidance but it's still a solid crippling ice storm for CAD regions.  Ukmet and ICON  aren't as strong with the shortwave and looks to be setting up for possible front end snow hit before going to sleet/freezing in CAD regions, (signficant winter storm).  Canadian and last night's Euro are cold enough for all snow for lots of folks, but just a little too weak/surpressed with the shortwave to throw precip back our way.  

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If the Euro comes in with a similar look as the ICON/Ukmet then we're definitely cooking with gas on this one.  An all snow event is pretty much out of the question, but lots of folks are definitely still in the game for a decent front end snow hit before sleet/freezing take over.

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Whatever ice the models are outputting right now aren’t even worth looking at, just look at the overall setup. Even 24 hours out they are usually 75% overdone regardless of the setup and regardless if the CAD is usually underdone because even with under done CAD on the models we don’t come close to what they show for IP or ZR.

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I’m not sure I ever recall a winter where spacing was this crazy. It’s like every couple days it seems there’s a storm on top of a storm. Maybe because it’s being alluded to this year but trying to forecast these things has got to be an absolute nightmare. Even the first storm, against the apps I.e SVA into NC mountains, at hr 90 the gfs has a 1045 high up over eastern Quebec. That even noses down slightly you have a dramatically different forecast. The low will not move plow into that thing and you can already see the last couple runs the low is readjusting to the cold air up top. This is a fascinating next seven days plus.

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21 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

One thing to keep in mind is the radical difference between the way the GFS and Euro handle the next frontal system (at around hour 84). I have a feeling the Euro won't look anything like the GFS due to the downstream implications. It's going to take a while to iron this one out

Very true…. Although not 100% it’s normally similar to UKMET … I’d much rather have UK/EURO ENS in my corner than GFS (it’s gotten better but it’s still goofus) everyone here wants to crown the GFS bc normally it shows us eye Candy we wanna see but that Jmo …. In A CAD scenario in NC I’d place any bet with anyone on  NAM thermals, and normally take GFS/EURO mean and avg then slice by 40% to get a forecast 

 

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Euro is so close to a straight up snow storm. Super cold column just little suppressed. Verbatim it's a decent snow for Central Georiga and Central South Carolina though. 

I like where we're sitting at this point. Always good to be more worried about suppression 6 days out instead of temps. 

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1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

Euro is so close to a straight up snow storm. Super cold column just little suppressed. Verbatim it's a decent snow for Central Georiga and Central South Carolina though. 

I like where we're sitting at this point. Always good to be more worried about suppression 6 days out instead of temps. 

Amplification is what causes the warming of the mid-levels though, so it's a delicate balance

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4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z EURO has a similar set up as GFS, just not near the moisture and it's not amped. BUT... their is a signal there 

Euro is so much better with the initial cold press... we would be talking good ratio's if it verifies. All we need is the Euro cold press and then the shortwave to hold together a little bit better and elongate/tilt a little harder as it swings through and you'd be talking a solid 3-6 inch powder dump for lots on this board. 

Also is it out of the realm of possibility to get that 2nd shortwave dropping down from Colorado close to phasing in on the backside of our main shortwave? I  haven't seen any models show this yet, but dang it sure looks like the 12z euro was close... if those hooked up it could really get interesting.

Screen Shot 2022-01-31 at 1.45.28 PM.png

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7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Amplification is what causes the warming of the mid-levels though, so it's a delicate balance

That's part of the balance for sure, but the other part is the initial cold press... if we get more cold dry air in the mid-layers out in front of the storm it leaves more margin for amplification yet still cold enough to snow. 

It's probably not realistic to expect an all snow event if we get a decent system, but if we get a good cold/dry push out in front, we could really perform well on the front end thump similar to the big snow/sleet storm back in January. We will get the benefit of the adiabatic cooling in the 850-900mb levels from Southeast flow in to the mountains. 

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3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

That's part of the balance for sure, but the other part is the initial cold press... if we get more cold dry air in the mid-layers out in front of the storm it leaves more margin for amplification yet still cold enough to snow. 

It's probably not realistic to expect an all snow event if we get a decent system, but if we get a good cold/dry push out in front, we could really perform well on the front end thump similar to the big snow/sleet storm back in January. We will get the benefit of the adiabatic cooling in the 850-900mb levels from Southeast flow in to the mountains. 

Yeah, for sure. Some similarities to the big mid month storm, although not as amplified and less surface cold to work with

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Definitely pulling for a solution more like the Euro, and just hope to get lucky on QPF. It advances the cold front much further than the GFS behind our end of the week rain maker. With some antecedent cold would definitely be more snow and sleet and not the ZR mess from the GFS. 

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