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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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Not sure if we will see any more chances this year looking at the models this morning. There are some cold shots but no real winter storms at the moment. 1 and 3 is better than 0 and 3 I guess. Obviously once you pass mid Feb it gets much harder to get a good one in here. It was a good year for VA Beach and western areas but as of now it isn't memorable for the Triangle as we would end below normal in snowfall if no other chances materialize.

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14 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Not sure if we will see any more chances this year looking at the models this morning. There are some cold shots but no real winter storms at the moment. 1 and 3 is better than 0 and 3 I guess. Obviously once you pass mid Feb it gets much harder to get a good one in here. It was a good year for VA Beach and western areas but as of now it isn't memorable for the Triangle as we would end below normal in snowfall if no other chances materialize.

00z Euro is showing a snow storm on day 9??? cmc has the same storm it's just a little suppressed. GFS has it too just too amped.

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28 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Raleigh needs a make up storm soon. I know it doesn't work that way but it would be nice.

***Correction ^^^ ALL OF NC/SC Upstate major cities need a Make up storm soon these 3 weeks have been cool I can’t lie (6.5”) now but I’m thirsty for a Feb 2004, Feb 2014 something where we see it coming 5 days out and it’s just pure Screenshots day in day out on the models. Realistically Asking, what’s a good storm? I say 8-12” ++ but that could vary for different areas so I’m curious what everyone thinks 

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Just now, PantherJustin said:

***Correction ^^^ ALL OF NC major cities need a Make up storm soon these 3 weeks have been cool I can’t lie (6.5”) now but I’m thirsty for a Feb 2004, Feb 2014 something where we see it coming 5 days out and it’s just pure Screenshots day in day out on the models. Realistically Asking, what’s a good storm? I say 8-12” ++ but that could vary for different areas so I’m curious what everyone thinks 

It would take another 3 incher to get us to normal. That would be good enough. For me though I would say anything 6+ here is a significant event.

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16 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I agree PJ, bring 'em on!!!!  By the way, check our the massive shift on the 12z Euro with the low presure track for mid/late week.  Late Thursday night, the 00z Euro had the low over northern VT and not the 12z has it over Boone.  

TW

So, has the Euro become the golden model again?

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5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Definitely think there is a solid CAD event within the next 7-14 days. Lots of signals from the globals. 

Yeah I see what you're saying. We will see if that can battle the SE ridging enough to get the job done. Of course that would most likely be more in the way of mixed-p/ice if it does materialize, but that is certainly more of the norm when it comes to winter weather out here.

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2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah I see what you're saying. We will see if that can battle the SE ridging enough to get the job done. Of course that would most likely be more in the way of mixed-p/ice if it does materialize, but that is certainly more of the norm when it comes to winter weather out here.

Correct me if I’m wrong but seems that majority of solid CAD events come at the tail end of a warming period. We are going to see that mid next week. 

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3 hours ago, eyewall said:

It would take another 3 incher to get us to normal.

What do you define as normal?  For the 1991 - 2020 period, RDU "normal" (mean) is 5.2 inches: 2.6 in Jan, 1.4 in Feb, 0.3 in March, 0.1 in Nov, and 0.8 in December.  I haven't been able to find the yearly numbers to calculate a median but I am certain it is significantly less than the mean.  

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7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

What do you define as normal?  For the 1991 - 2020 period, RDU "normal" (mean) is 5.2 inches: 2.6 in Jan, 1.4 in Feb, 0.3 in March, 0.1 in Nov, and 0.8 in December.  I haven't been able to find the yearly numbers to calculate a median but I am certain it is significantly less than the mean.  

Do you know what the normal was for the previous 30 year period?

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4 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Do you know what the normal was for the previous 30 year period?

I will look in a minute, but first I have obtained the yearly snowfall amounts from 1991 - 2020.  The median snowfall is......2.5 inches, less than half the mean!  So RDU has already exceed its real "normal" snowfall for the year.  Congratulations for us all. (note, I treat "T" as zeros in my calculations

Here is the yearly data

1990-1991 0
1991-1992 0
1992-1993 2.5
1993-1994 4.4
1994-1995 2.2
1995-1996 14.6
1996-1997 0.4
1997-1998 2.4
1998-1999 0
1999-2000 25.8
2000-2001 2.6
2001-2002 10.8
2002-2003 7.4
2003-2004 14.9
2004-2005 0.9
2005-2006 0
2006-2007 1.6
2007-2008 0.5
2008-2009 7.1
2009-2010 8
2010-2011 9
2011-2012 0.9
2012-2013 1.7
2013-2014 5.8
2014-2015 7.9
2015-2016 1.4
2016-2017 0.8
2017-2018 8.9
2018-2019 8.9
2019-2020 2.5

 

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