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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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Gfs is really close to dragging a moderate strength gulf low across the coast in east to west fashion. We don’t need any phasing for that. In fact the phasing wit’s the northern branch sorta squashes those chances. If the 18z gfs had not been quite so diggy with the intital vort I believe it could have rolled it east and given a solid ENE tracking Miller A. You can see the gulf low develop but the northern branch squashes it just enough before it gets rolling our way. 

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5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Kind of a weird thought , but how can a Meteorologist say to not post a crazy snow map 6 days out but it's okay to post a temperature map or a map that shows no snow 6 days out... isn't that an oxymoron? 1 is just as likely not to happen than the other... maybe I'm wrong...

probabilistic is the operative word I'm guessing.   Some maps are safer bets than others.

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Kind of a weird thought , but how can a Meteorologist say to not post a crazy snow map 6 days out but it's okay to post a temperature map or a map that shows no snow 6 days out... isn't that an oxymoron? 1 is just as likely not to happen than the other... maybe I'm wrong...
Every year I see posts from meteorologists irate over these 7 day model snow outputs that people post. Not sure why they waste their breath. There is so much misinformation posted on social media every day, and honestly I am not sure if it makes a difference with snow. People in the south lose their mind over snow whether it is an inch or a foot.

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4 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

Every year I see posts from meteorologists irate over these 7 day model snow outputs that people post. Not sure why they waste their breath. There is so much misinformation posted on social media every day, and honestly I am not sure if it makes a difference with snow. People in the south lose their mind over snow whether it is an inch or a foot.

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I assume the issue for them is that people post these maps on, say, twitter, without any notification or warning that this is likely not to happen.  What this ends up doing is having ignorant people that don't know any better flood their social media with posts about a storm thats likely not to happen and get their hopes up about a storm that is likely not to happen so that when it doesnt happen, they flood the mets socials with irate posts about why the storm didn't happen...when it wasn't likely to in the first place.

 

IMO, theres nothing wrong with sharing models 5,6,7 days out.  I think if you want to be safe you share it with the warning that this is very likely not to be the outcome...but even then, the ignorant snow chasers that don't understand what theyre looking at wont get it.  Its kind of the issue with social media in general...no matter what information you share, theres going to be an ignorant portion of the population that is going to take it WAY out of context and cause issues for everyone else.

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I assume the issue for them is that people post these maps on, say, twitter, without any notification or warning that this is likely not to happen.  What this ends up doing is having ignorant people that don't know any better flood their social media with posts about a storm thats likely not to happen and get their hopes up about a storm that is likely not to happen so that when it doesnt happen, they flood the mets socials with irate posts about why the storm didn't happen...when it wasn't likely to in the first place.
 
IMO, theres nothing wrong with sharing models 5,6,7 days out.  I think if you want to be safe you share it with the warning that this is very likely not to be the outcome...but even then, the ignorant snow chasers that don't understand what theyre looking at wont get it.  Its kind of the issue with social media in general...no matter what information you share, theres going to be an ignorant portion of the population that is going to take it WAY out of context and cause issues for everyone else.
Yep, Ron White has a nice saying for those folks.

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Beautiful trends on the GEFS today with the placement of the mean trough. Exactly the ensemble support I was hoping to see start building before I let myself get remotely interested in this chance. Still not overly optimistic this far west, but we'll see. Would hate to be left out on back to back snows.

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