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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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1643446800-Irrf54KXNqY.png
Much better spot for the phase. The thumb ridge in the SW collapses a bit more this run allowing more of a dig. The downside is more in the way of rain for central NC but those details come later. Everyone forgets there was a lot of rain first in the Carolina Crusher before the epic comma head.

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1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

A better run, but continues to show more of a cold chasing moisture kind of setup (we all know how these tend to work out). The west trend can only help us so much, with the phase happening to our NE. I think the ceiling for many is a 3-6" type deal, with the exception of possibly SE VA

Agree to an extent, but if this thing goes bombs away as a dynamic system, as progged, these are the ones that rapidly drag down the colder 850 mb air and “manufacture” their own cold west of the track. This is not a slider type storm with cold air chasing moisture if it’s going to town, as it has the potential to do. Very very very few big central NC snows begin as pure snow 

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4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

1643446800-Irrf54KXNqY.png
Much better spot for the phase. The thumb ridge in the SW collapses a bit more this run allowing more of a dig. The downside is more in the way of rain for central NC but those details come later. Everyone forgets there was a lot of rain first in the Carolina Crusher before the epic comma head.

I recalled it rained all morning throughout most of the afternoon here in the Midlands of SC until around 3pm when all of a sudden it started snowing.  It quickly went from a moderate to heavy snow.  It looked like a chicken truck had crashed as the flakes were fat and heavy.  When it all ended we had about 6" of snow and it took awhile before it melted.  We missed an entire week of work.  

 

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3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Agree to an extent, but if this thing goes bombs away as a dynamic system, as progged, these are the ones that rapidly drag down the colder 850 mb air and “manufacture” their own cold west of the track. This is not a slider type storm with cold air chasing moisture if it’s going to town, as it has the potential to do. Very very very few big central NC snows begin as pure snow 

Fair enough. I'm a bit out of my depth with regards to Climo here, having lived in NC for only 3.5 years. The look of a Miller A for DC is way different than for North Carolina so it takes some getting used to (it's not like we've gotten many the past few years)

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1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Fair enough. I'm a bit out of my depth with regards to Climo here, having lived in NC for only 3.5 years. The look of a Miller A for DC is way different than for North Carolina so it takes some getting used to (it's not like we've gotten many the past few years)

Having lived in both NC and DC for decades, not really. DC SLP target is probably analogous to that of Greensboro or W-S, inner banks to just off ORF.

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