Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,530
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    northernriwx
    Newest Member
    northernriwx
    Joined

Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, PantherJustin said:

Well 18Z GFS Op holds atleast…. 30-32 for all Along and N/W I-85 …but eventually Verbatim turns to rain as system pulls away for ALL of NC 

It's dropping 2 inches of liquid in central GA/SC. It's a great run considering the majority of guidance is on the suppressed side of things.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The problem remains the parent high is retreating as the storm hits. You won't maintain a good wedge when that happens and ZR will be self limiting. The next high doesn't build in until the system passes. This run looked even closer to in situ CAD. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z GFS still has a major ice storm this morning... 0z euro jumped on board with a little more snow/ice. We will see how this continues to go. UK still has it. The cmc is still not there...

Do you know if the Ukie was still amped? Also you saying the cmc is still not there made me laugh just for the fact of I’m not sure if it’s been there at all this winter. It’s still trying to figure out 3 storms ago. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m just not seeing anything that screams “major” ice storm. There is retreating HP, the timing will have to be perfect with the transient HP to have any frozen, the antecedent cold air is marginal, and this all relies on the system staying relatively weak and not routing the cold air before a wedge can get established. Long story short, this looks like in-situ CAD and some ice but I really doubt this is a major ice storm, at least from the setup I’m seeing

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Call me a weenie but thr 84hr nam and rgem look a lot like the euro at 500mb. They all are stronger with the cold push and only keep a small piece of of energy back towards southern Utah. 
 

the gfs wants to hangs more energy back in Texas and has a stronger trough as a result and has less of a cold push out in front.(seemingly because it keeps more energy held back) 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m just not seeing anything that screams “major” ice storm. There is retreating HP, the timing will have to be perfect with the transient HP to have any frozen, the antecedent cold air is marginal, and this all relies on the system staying relatively weak and not routing the cold air before a wedge can get established. Long story short, this looks like in-situ CAD and some ice but I really doubt this is a major ice storm, at least from the setup I’m seeing

Yesterday the placement was looking better. Just look at the trend on the GEFS. Any amount of amplification will push the cold out in a hurry. 

If the low can slow down and remain to our South like the Euro depicts however, mid levels may not torch so much and we may stay frozen (at least in the Western Piedmont)

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_fh126_trend.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m just not seeing anything that screams “major” ice storm. There is retreating HP, the timing will have to be perfect with the transient HP to have any frozen, the antecedent cold air is marginal, and this all relies on the system staying relatively weak and not routing the cold air before a wedge can get established. Long story short, this looks like in-situ CAD and some ice but I really doubt this is a major ice storm, at least from the setup I’m seeing

Cold air is marginal on the GFS, isn't marginal on Euro.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Alright, i've looked at all the data and I think I  know what we need to happen for the best outcome... lol. 

It's hard to piece together because there's so many moving parts but here's my theory:

The GFS and last night's ukmet are leaving both lobes of the shortwave behind when the first front comes through Friday.  As a result, the front doesn't push as far south so our mid level cold air is more marginal.  By leaving both lobes behind, they cut off in tandem with each other and swing around to create a longer trough as they get pushed our way. You wind up with one lobe in oklahoma and the other lobe swinging under it making a stronger neutral tilted trough. This allows for a stronger storm with more qpf farther north, but also more WAA.  (This actually helps the wedging high pressure though b/c of more confluence in front of the trough.) That's why you see more ice on the GFS and basically no chance of snow for anyone. 

The Euro/ICON/NAM all allow the front lobe of our shortwave to get caught in the frontal system on friday. They're doing this b/c the shortwave dropping through minnesota is stronger and further south I think. As a result, there is a much better cold air press that comes our way behind the front. The remaining lobe cuts off in western texas and is weaker than the GFS shows b/c it's not both pieces working in tandem anymore.  This lobe still cuts off though and strengthens before rotating our way.  But it's not as long/neutral tilted as the GFS and we wind up with a weaker system with much more cold air to work with.  This seems like the best recipe for our snow chances.

The CMC is in the euro camp with respect to the frontal lobe getting sucked in to the first front... but it is taking the back lobe and phasing it in a third piece of energy way back towards the baja area.  As a result the cut off low develops farther west (arizona//mexico border), than the euro and it's so far west that by the time it rotates our way we've completely lost our high pressure.  This is the only model doing this with respect to the third piece of energy so I suspect it's wrong.

All of this doesn't even factor in the kicker shortwave trough dropping down from Canada behind our storm which is clearly affecting the rate of decay and how much precip our main shortwave throws back our way.  (though it seems this feature doesn't have as much effect b/c despite being modeled wildly different the storm outcome isn't effected too much amongst modeling from the changes).

So all that being said... we need an outcome similar to what last night's euro showed, and the only improvements on that outcome being a slightly more consolidated/stronger cutoff/5h low (but not at the expense of holding back the frontal lobe portion early on)  to allow for a little more precip as it swings through. That has the potential to drop 3-5 inches of snow for a wide swath of people on our board I think.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

You say a 1038 over Maine won't get it done..... for what form of precip and for who?  I would say a 1038 over Maine is plenty strong for freezing rain in CAD areas.  

TW

It will get it done, but it’s 1038 over Maine at the beginning, it very quickly moves to Newfoundland. I should have elaborated. Big CAD need the high moving into that position with the precip, not leaving. Even with the cold push on the EURO it has nothing to sustain it and the only reason it hangs on is bc the system is so weak you don’t have the 850 warmth we always see with stronger systems. My point is, in this setup we’re going to have to thread the needle to see anything more than nuisance ice. The Euro is the best bet but sadly it’s on an island and not impressive to begin with

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • buckeyefan1 changed the title to Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022
  • buckeyefan1 unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...