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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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20 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

GSP says the GFS model showing cold and snow is an outlier.  Wasn't it the GFS that has been most dependable this winter?  GSP says even though we'll have to watch the Saturday Sunday time frame.

AKQ said the same thing, I think what is important to remember is that it is the current outlier, and we are still a ways away.

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23 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

GSP says the GFS model showing cold and snow is an outlier.  Wasn't it the GFS that has been most dependable this winter?  GSP says even though we'll have to watch the Saturday Sunday time frame.

Ensembles are converging on a general track solution now. Looks like a I-85 East special. 

img

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4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Would love for the GFS to be right but I really hate the Euro isn't on board.

Yea.. objectively I don't know what way I think this will go. It's unsettling that the Euro/CMC/ICON basically have trended worse to basically nothing today. 

Ukmet still has a decent storm but both it and the gfs have trended less amped as well.

Maybe we get a windshield wipe back the other way tonight... and settle on a decent event in between. fingers crossed! 

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20 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

More/less the models are actually in very good agreement now on most of the 5h features/timing etc... it really just comes down to really small scale interactions and orientations of the vorticity lobes within the small shortwave as it pinches off. 

So...model mayhem for the next for days then....

Cool, cool

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  • buckeyefan1 changed the title to Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022
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