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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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Well that was interesting... big step towards the Euro with regard to thermal profile on the GFS... still the most amped solution but it was very, very close to an all snow sounding for the whole storm in the upstate with over an inch of liquid.  Storm trended way faster on the GFS so not as much time for CAD to build in, but also less time for WAA and scouring of the mid-level cold air so we get more snow for many. 

Overall a great run though b/c it trended towards the very cold and favorable Euro profiles... 

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I'm skeptical this event produces much of anything for the Triangle beyond a little zr early on.  As pointed out by others the cold is simply not there enough early on and retreating rapidly as storm develops.  Congrats to the mountain (maybe foothills) folks.  Think you score decently here.

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6 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

I'm skeptical this event produces much of anything for the Triangle beyond a little zr early on.  As pointed out by others the cold is simply not there enough early on and retreating rapidly as storm develops.  Congrats to the mountain (maybe foothills) folks.  Think you score decently here.

The cold push is pretty stout, with a dry airmass (this a few hours before onset) This would yield a wet bulb temp of 30 degrees with cold continuing to push in

gfs_T2m_neus_19.png

gfs_Td2m_neus_19.png

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3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

I'm skeptical this event produces much of anything for the Triangle beyond a little zr early on.  As pointed out by others the cold is simply not there enough early on and retreating rapidly as storm develops.  Congrats to the mountain (maybe foothills) folks.  Think you score decently here.

I mean sure if you take the GFS verbatim then I guess so. If you take the euro verbatim then South and East of the triangle gets all snow and more than Raleigh.... temps aren't an issue at all on the Euro.

Point being, we don't know what's happening yet, anything is still on the table.

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1 hour ago, rmcwahoo said:

Richmond folks aren’t. Right there with you. 4.3 inches of snow to date at the airport. Brutal

My brother lives in Urbana and they’ve had 2 5”+ events and a couple smaller events this year! This last one they had borderline blizzard conditions. Crazy the difference 45 minutes to your east 

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11 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Here's the sounding for Raleigh Sunday at 1pm as precip is pivoting just to your south on the 00z Euro. Does that look like too warm/ice to rain scenario?

Screen Shot 2022-02-01 at 11.28.04 AM.png

Yeah that is warm. wet bulb essentially right at freezing.

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5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Sorry yeah I miscalculated. WB is 28F or so which is a good ice accrual temp if you can maintain that level and not warm due to the latent heat of freezing.

You're going to Eeyore your way in to a big snowstorm and I can already see it coming. lol

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6 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

You're going to Eeyore your way in to a big snowstorm and I can already see it coming. lol

Hahah well I would be happy if I did, but it is hard to have a lot of confidence when the parent high is retreating and it is more of a hybrid to in-situ CAD situation. Of course that exact scenario still needs to be ironed out over this week in the model runs. What is interesting too is the next wave on Tuesday trying to show up as the next high builds in over Ontario/Quebec. That sounding by itself would actually indicate more of a snow scenario but I am not so sure the mid levels will be quite that cold.

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27 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Here's the sounding for Raleigh Sunday at 1pm as precip is pivoting just to your south on the 00z Euro. Does that look like too warm/ice to rain scenario?

Screen Shot 2022-02-01 at 11.28.04 AM.png

Thanks Burrel.  Looks like a pretty good snow sign at 850 (at that specific time) unless I have something wrong.   Ground truth would be what I call dripping snow though unless 2m temps do indeed get driven down below 0c while 850s stay below 0c.  

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7 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

burrel, that was just funny.  eyeore?

eyore is a fictional character in the Winnie-the-Pooh books by A. A. Milne. He is generally characterized as a pessimistic, gloomy, depressed, anhedonic, old grey stuffed donkey

 

sums up eyewalls general demeanor every winter, lol 

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Just now, burrel2 said:

eyore is a fictional character in the Winnie-the-Pooh books by A. A. Milne. He is generally characterized as a pessimistic, gloomy, depressed, anhedonic, old grey stuffed donkey

Yes I know I was just renaming eyewall eyeore.  Sorry it was confusing.

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So, I'm showing .90" and 1.29" as possible ice accumulations IMBY.  What is the highest total freezing rain event y'all have heard of (a true freezing rain event)?  I know there are diminishing returns when it comes to ice accruement.  What are the indicators/situations that cause for maximum accumulation?  I hope I'm making some sense...

 

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2 minutes ago, NC DataDude said:

So, I'm showing .90" and 1.29" as possible ice accumulations IMBY.  What is the highest total freezing rain event y'all have heard of (a true freezing rain event)?  I know there are diminishing returns when it comes to ice accruement.  What are the indicators/situations that cause for maximum accumulation?  I hope I'm making some sense...

 

Duration is the biggest factor. Most significant ice storms are at least 12 hours of precip and usually not particularly heavy, but consistent. So overrunning events tend to be the highest potential

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  • buckeyefan1 changed the title to Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022
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