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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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15 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Can someone elaborate on this? Would this turn out good for a Winter Storm with this look?

It is a bit farther south than the same feature on the GFS. Not sure what it would have done beyond that time downstream if it would still be very suppressed.

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18z GFS tracks the upper level low very similar to the March 1st 2009 storm that really hammered Western NC, especially from SBY-HKY-GSO. If that trends continues the upper-level low could become the main show. These type of events can leave some with very little while just a few miles away others really cash in. Like others have mentioned on here, small adjustments in how all this energy interacts is going to play havoc on the models for a few days.  

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Congrats upstate SC that run and east of 85, def. trended more suppressed south and east. Earlier on in the run upper level went neutral faster but actually went negative later than 18z did. 18z map on the bottom, trend towards Euro that run. This has been the trend for 2 weeks now. 

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

 

sn10_acc.us_ma (1).png

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Trend is clear on all guidance so far today, flatter and more suppressed. Rare or not, the suppression train continues. Outside of the initial storm in January, this pattern has been a constant tease for those on the west side of the forum, only for the models to pull the rug inside 5 days and end up with nothing but virga.

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8 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Trend is clear on all guidance so far today, flatter and more suppressed. Rare or not, the suppression train continues. Outside of the initial storm in January, this pattern has been a constant tease for those on the west side of the forum, only for the models to pull the rug inside 5 days and end up with nothing but virga.

Yeah not a good sign for those of us back to the west, esp when op run and ENS start to zero in together or atleast come closer together. Also the 18z EURO lines up pretty well with the GEFS and UKMET tonight. 

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25 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Yeah not a good sign for those of us back to the west, esp when op run and ENS start to zero in together or atleast come closer together. Also the 18z EURO lines up pretty well with the GEFS and UKMET tonight. 

The mean does yes…. But still a handful of Jacked up Big dogs in the Ensemble’s…. For now 

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  • buckeyefan1 changed the title to Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022
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