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November 28-29 Storm Threat


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1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Although I appreciate your enthusiasm, you do realize that there is zero model support for your snowfall prediction. I don't mean to be harah, but, there us wishful thinking, and there is being realistic. No one will fault you for being overly optomistic, but, its time to face the reality. This storm may bring the area 2"-4" or 3"-6" at best

I believe the ceiling is a lot higher, if the northern stream digs more and the southern stream ejects faster, the snow totals on the models will increase. It’s not showing it yet but I believe it is close. The pattern does not favor a progressive solution from what I saw. It favors an amplified one. Maybe it will amplify so much it rains, that’s possible. However just yesterday we saw 1 foot+ on the European guidance in some areas. Even Kevin is sticking with his 4-8 call, and he’s a more conservative forecaster than I am.

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  • Weenie 4
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4 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

We had a good one in 2014, and also 2011 (which ended up being the last big one for the season :lol:)

13" in the 2014 event - finally saw a 10"+ snowfall on my 42nd November in Maine.  Nine Novembers in Fort Kent produced nothing above 8", then a year after we move south, Nov 1986 brings a 21" dump.  While we lived in the north, all the places we had or would live in Maine (BGR, Gardiner, Farmington) had 10'+ storms.  Farmington had more during our 13 years in Gardiner.
The 2011 storm was close - 9.7" - and was the biggest snowfall of that snow season.

Looks like some of us will see more in the next 24 hrs or so then Monday right now.

Maybe 1-2 tomorrow night, little or nothing Sun-Mon?

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1 hour ago, George001 said:

I believe the ceiling is a lot higher, if the northern stream digs more and the southern stream ejects faster, the snow totals on the models will increase. It’s not showing it yet but I believe it is close. The pattern does not favor a progressive solution from what I saw. It favors an amplified one. Maybe it will amplify so much it rains, that’s possible. However just yesterday we saw 1 foot+ on the European guidance in some areas. Even Kevin is sticking with his 4-8 call, and he’s a more conservative forecaster than I am.

You and your ceilings...just like your prediction a couple months ago Boston can get 150+" of snow smh.

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2 hours ago, George001 said:

I believe the ceiling is a lot higher, if the northern stream digs more and the southern stream ejects faster, the snow totals on the models will increase. It’s not showing it yet but I believe it is close. The pattern does not favor a progressive solution from what I saw. It favors an amplified one. Maybe it will amplify so much it rains, that’s possible. However just yesterday we saw 1 foot+ on the European guidance in some areas. Even Kevin is sticking with his 4-8 call, and he’s a more conservative forecaster than I am.

Pretty sad when I have to give you a weenie.. lol Goodluck though also Happy Thanksgiving!

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7 minutes ago, 512high said:

So there is a chance! (lol)

Well it was the first run in several cycles that deepened the northern stream shortwave further south. So at least for now the trend of it being flatter has stopped which is what we need to get this back to being a bigger deal. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well it was the first run in several cycles that deepened the northern stream shortwave further south. So at least for now the trend of it being flatter has stopped which is what we need to get this back to being a bigger deal. 

First Happy Thanksgiving! If there is a better signal there at this time tomorrow night I will be more interested .......

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well it was the first run in several cycles that deepened the northern stream shortwave further south. So at least for now the trend of it being flatter has stopped which is what we need to get this back to being a bigger deal. 

12Z had a similar look though. 18Z doesn't look much different if we're talking h5

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2 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

12Z had a similar look though. 18Z doesn't look much different if we're talking h5

It’s significantly south imho. It’s enough to matter anyway.  Here’s 18z on top and 12z at the bottom at the same time:

5F781AC2-8F1D-4A8A-A0F4-008BCB208AB0.thumb.jpeg.6469f6e1976c26b35a55eaa8ec91e00b.jpeg

 

 

637BFD56-0EDF-49B9-86DE-ABFD6403902D.thumb.jpeg.5455ed1a9341a2f5f51aa94737570018.jpeg

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