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November 28-29 Storm Threat


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thing is... long years of experience -

I've seen the NAM day dream like this before and hiccup fore' and aft of the stream line placements

But that said .. it may be worth it to note that the mechanics are as of this 12z run grid filling ( however they do that over the eastern pac waters in/over B.C. ).. are just relaying over the denser physically materialized soundings, and oh gee - subtle morphology also materializes down stream. 

High sensitivity -

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RGEM was digging pretty good but just couldn’t quite get conveyor system going in time. I agree with tip that some of these runs also ha e spacing interference. RGEM seemed that way...but it was still enough to drop a couple inches in eastern areas and then it croaked downeast/midcoast Maine. 

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Welp, my forecast for 12-18 with an iso 24 in eastern mass is going to bust. Damn it, the gfs was right, it’s usually horrible but I have to give it credit for this one. The North Atlantic blocking did break down faster than I expected, where I went wrong is I overestimated the North Atlantic blocking. The good news is the MJO is expected to go into phase 7 in a couple of weeks. Even that Dec 5 storm looks interesting on the european guidance. Right now it’s too far west, but it wouldn’t take much to get that low to redevelop off the coast and turn into a Miller B. 

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4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Welp, my forecast for 12-18 with an iso 24 in eastern mass is going to bust. Damn it, the gfs was right, it’s usually horrible but I have to give it credit for this one. The North Atlantic blocking did break down faster than I expected, where I went wrong is I overestimated the North Atlantic blocking. The good news is the MJO is expected to go into phase 7 in a couple of weeks. Even that Dec 5 storm looks interesting on the european guidance. Right now it’s too far west, but it wouldn’t take much to get that low to redevelop off the coast and turn into a Miller B. 

My forecast of heavy, heavy disappointment looks like it was bang on the money.

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2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Welp, my forecast for 12-18 with an iso 24 in eastern mass is going to bust. Damn it, the gfs was right, it’s usually horrible but I have to give it credit for this one. The North Atlantic blocking did break down faster than I expected. The good news is the MJO is expected to go into phase 7 in a couple of weeks. Even that Dec 5 storm looks interesting on the european guidance. Right now it’s too far west, but it wouldn’t take much to get that low to redevelop off the coast and turn into a Miller B. 

Everybody knew your forecast was a complete joke from the second you posted it.  
 

Some friendly advice George…stop posting amounts that are incredibly astronomical, and forecasting blizzards with every potential.  It makes you look silly and incredibly inexperienced, and just plain off your rocker. 

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27 minutes ago, George001 said:

Welp, my forecast for 12-18 with an iso 24 in eastern mass is going to bust. Damn it, the gfs was right, it’s usually horrible but I have to give it credit for this one. The North Atlantic blocking did break down faster than I expected, where I went wrong is I overestimated the North Atlantic blocking. The good news is the MJO is expected to go into phase 7 in a couple of weeks. Even that Dec 5 storm looks interesting on the european guidance. Right now it’s too far west, but it wouldn’t take much to get that low to redevelop off the coast and turn into a Miller B. 

most any forecast of that amount a week out is going to bust - probably 98% of the time.  Most winters have 0 "severe blizzards" in most of New England, and most years have no blizzards in most of New England.  

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28 minutes ago, George001 said:

Welp, my forecast for 12-18 with an iso 24 in eastern mass is going to bust. Damn it, the gfs was right, it’s usually horrible but I have to give it credit for this one. The North Atlantic blocking did break down faster than I expected, where I went wrong is I overestimated the North Atlantic blocking. The good news is the MJO is expected to go into phase 7 in a couple of weeks. Even that Dec 5 storm looks interesting on the european guidance. Right now it’s too far west, but it wouldn’t take much to get that low to redevelop off the coast and turn into a Miller B. 

The people who decided if you can own a gun - 2aHawaii

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7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

most any forecast of that amount a week out is going to bust - probably 98% of the time.  Most winters have 0 "severe blizzards" in most of New England, and most years have no blizzards in most of New England.  

Most winters have no severe blizzards in New England? Where I live there’s usually one or two. The Ukie did have a couple runs where it supported my forecast but no model really had a phase with the southern stream and widespread 12+, it was always a very narrow area. 

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2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Most winters have no severe blizzards in New England? Where I live there’s usually one or two. The Ukie did have a couple runs where it supported my forecast but no model really had a phase with the southern stream and widespread 12+, it was always a very narrow area. 

If we were generous and compare Foxboro to ORH, the average is 2 to 3 events a season with 6+ inches.

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35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Everybody knew your forecast was a complete joke from the second you posted it.  
 

Some friendly advice George…stop posting amounts that are incredibly astronomical, and forecasting blizzards with every potential.  It makes you look silly and incredibly inexperienced, and just plain off your rocker. 

A couple of runs from the Ukie supported my forecast. It looked promising for a bit, but it just didn’t pan out. It is late November so I probably should have been more conservative with the amounts despite the setup looking promising.

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47 minutes ago, George001 said:

Welp, my forecast for 12-18 with an iso 24 in eastern mass is going to bust. Damn it, the gfs was right, it’s usually horrible but I have to give it credit for this one. The North Atlantic blocking did break down faster than I expected, where I went wrong is I overestimated the North Atlantic blocking. The good news is the MJO is expected to go into phase 7 in a couple of weeks. Even that Dec 5 storm looks interesting on the european guidance. Right now it’s too far west, but it wouldn’t take much to get that low to redevelop off the coast and turn into a Miller B. 

Do you mean to tell me that I wasted money buying new boots and a hat for my dog??? 

Image result for busted snowfall  forecast meme

 

 

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47 minutes ago, George001 said:

Welp, my forecast for 12-18 with an iso 24 in eastern mass is going to bust. Damn it, the gfs was right, it’s usually horrible but I have to give it credit for this one. The North Atlantic blocking did break down faster than I expected, where I went wrong is I overestimated the North Atlantic blocking. The good news is the MJO is expected to go into phase 7 in a couple of weeks. Even that Dec 5 storm looks interesting on the european guidance. Right now it’s too far west, but it wouldn’t take much to get that low to redevelop off the coast and turn into a Miller B. 

It was always obvious the transient NAO ridge would break down...there was not evidence to suggest otherwise.

You made that up.

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21 minutes ago, George001 said:

Most winters have no severe blizzards in New England? Where I live there’s usually one or two. The Ukie did have a couple runs where it supported my forecast but no model really had a phase with the southern stream and widespread 12+, it was always a very narrow area. 

George just ignore the naysayers. No one here realizes what you have to do to arrive home on a July day

See the source image

 

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People forecasting widespread moderate to heavy snow because uncle on a bender showed it a few days in a row need to understand climatology.   I can count on one hand the memorable November snows in sne over the course of my 75 Novembers.   By memorable I mean >4-5 inches.   If you get an inch or 2 over the next 5 days it’s a win for sne.

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14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

People forecasting widespread moderate to heavy snow because uncle on a bender showed it a few days in a row need to understand climatology.   I can count on one hand the memorable November snows in sne over the course of my 75 Novembers.   By memorable I mean >4-5 inches.   If you get an inch or 2 over the next 5 days it’s a win for sne.

I know what you mean/meant but I still don't like that turn of phrase there ( bold ), lol. 

I mean ...duh, 'expectations'    But, rules are made to be broken - I think the folks in here that have a toe hold on reality know that its rarer this early.   

Climate for the lay-person:  does not dictate the daily anomaly.   One needs to look at each situation uniquely, and keep 'climate' as the sum of events divided by n-terms in annual assessment at the end of the cold seasons where it belongs.  

 

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