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November 28-29 Storm Threat


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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know what you mean/meant but I still don't like that turn of phrase there ( bold ), lol. 

I mean ...duh, 'expectations'    But, rules are made to be broken - I think the folks in here that have a toe hold on reality know that its rarer this early.   

Climate for the lay-person:  does not dictate the daily anomaly.   One needs to look at each situation uniquely, and keep 'climate' as the sum of events divided by n-terms in annual assessment at the end of the cold seasons where it belongs.  

 

There was was just never support for 18-24"...no need to delve any deeper than that.

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I think in this particular hemispheric canvas, if there's going to be a water-shed model run it's tonight's 00z that would be it.  ...Altho, 18z's cycle may benefit from any augmented ingest.

Relay is fast off the Pacific ...coming in on a narrow trajectory - historically, that's not exactly lending to improved model performance.   

The 00z run was still based off the scaffolding of assimilation over the ocean - in theory.. 12z has that nosing over land. The 00z Euro goes from positive tilt to this 12z airing more potency in neutral, with nuanced improvement in cyclone tendencies sooner ( I suspect ) for a reason.

As we've hammered for a week... tho a +PNA, it is flat biased stretched and quite speed saturated.   This is more error prone for textured reasons...

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Can’t be disappointed if that pans out.  A few weeks from now yes but not now.

Yeah I’ll consider anything > 1” a win this early. There’s going to be more chances too...the pattern looks pretty active over the next 10-12 days. They all won’t be snow chances but probably at least one of them will be. 

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4 hours ago, George001 said:

Welp, my forecast for 12-18 with an iso 24 in eastern mass is going to bust. Damn it, the gfs was right, it’s usually horrible but I have to give it credit for this one. The North Atlantic blocking did break down faster than I expected, where I went wrong is I overestimated the North Atlantic blocking. The good news is the MJO is expected to go into phase 7 in a couple of weeks. Even that Dec 5 storm looks interesting on the european guidance. Right now it’s too far west, but it wouldn’t take much to get that low to redevelop off the coast and turn into a Miller B. 

You need to start with the assumption that nothing special will happen with a system, because that's true 95% of the time. Just logically, not every threat can be a "severe blizzard", so why always forecast one? It boggles my mind.

I honestly don't understand how you can handle the instability of being so relentlessly "optimistic" about systems, since you're so often wrong. At some point, you'd think you'd become more conservative, just to avoid disappointment.

Significant systems are quite rare. Your understanding of a typical SNE winter should not be informed by highly anomalous years like 2014-2015 and 2017-2018, which I'm assuming are some of the years that you grew up on.

Learning to dissociate your forecaster self and your snow weenie self as best as you can is a very worthwhile goal. I had to learn this skill, and am still trying to improve in this aspect. 

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