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November 28-29 Storm Threat


40/70 Benchmark
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 Early Season Evolving as Anticipated with First Snowfall Possible Late Sunday Night-Early Monday

Thus far the latter portion of the autumn has been relatively well behaved in relation to the expectations of Eastern Mass Weather, as the residual positive temperature anomalies from one of the warmest months of October on record led to a fairly mild first half of November.
 
First%2BHalf.gif
However, the anticipated slight weakening of the polar vortex in conjunction with a marginal abatement of the Pacific jet has indeed lead to the mid month cool down that extend through the balance of November.
 
Eastern Mass Weather November Forecast Composite:
 
Novie%2BComposite.png

Versus verification through the first 2/3 of the month:
 
Nov%2B2021%2BThus%2Bfar.png
 
 
 
The vortex will ultimately go through a period of recovery during the early portion of December, which will coincide with a period of milder weather once again to being the month, however, it is this mass flux throughout the polar domain that will also act as a catalyst for a potential winter storm early next week before any potential warm up arrives.
 
Mass.png

Although the weather for the holiday travel period will be relatively benign, it is the return commute to work on Monday morning that may potentially be in peril for some.
 

Potential Post Holiday Storm Monday

The primary issue with regard to the potential winter lion at the onset of the 2021-2022 season is just how quickly the transient NAO block and PNA ridge relinquish their respective holds.
 
Storm%2BA.png
A more rapid decay of the transient NAO block and/or PNA ridge will allow the two disparate pieces of
of energy moving east of the plains on Sunday to remain separate for a longer duration of time. This would result the systems phasing later, further to the east and higher and latitude, which would limit impacts primarily northern New England. However, a faster joining of the respective bundles of energy induced by a slower translation of by one or both of the aforementioned ridges would result in a faster phase lower in latitude, and a messy Monday morning commute for a large portion of southern New England.
The most likely solution is somewhat of a compromise with the majority of signifiant snows and delays relegated to north of the Mass turnpike, but undoubtedly a messy Monday morning throughout the entirety of the region.
 
Storm%2B1.png

 
Needless to say, stay tuned and the prudent course of action is to plan for delays Monday morning.
 
Monday%2BAM%2BThreat%2BAssessment.png

First Call Friday if necessary-
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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Lots of pieces/vorts in play…gonna take a while to figure this out. As Scott said, I’ll take a couple inches and be plenty happy.  Nice there’s something to track over the holiday too.:sled:

Turkey leg in one hand, phone with happy hour GFS in the other?

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13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon crushes Boston  with a foot of snow 

BOS would prob have ptype issues verbatim that run...it's a little tucked, but it annihilates 128 belt and just NW. It's really compact.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's probably not going to be that compact in reality....I feel like the mid levels will be poorly handled, as usual. 

Agreed....though in a lot of these solutions where the northern stream goes nuts, we get this very tight/tucked circulation near the vortmax where it's closing off aloft....so it wouldn't surprise me if we see a really enhanced area of precip in a narrow stripe if that happened. We saw it in 12/9/05 even though that hit a pretty large area...but a narrow stripe from SE NH to NE and E-central MA got obliterated for a few hours on the rates.

 

But we have a long ways to go to worry about something that specific yet. This could still just be a few snow showers.....but we're trending toward shovelable at least right now.

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3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

I'm thinking that this might also have P-type issues verbatim for the coast, unless the northern energy keeps digging, which seems dependent on the amplitude of the western ridge

Yeah ptype issues are likely somewhere considering it’s still late November, I am more worried about that than suppression. 

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Id like to see the southern energy speed up and the northern stream dig a little more, the way things look right now on the Euro and Canadian guidance, it has 6-12 potential in the jackpot area. However that would be a fairly narrow area, for a bigger storm we need more phasing. 

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