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November 28-29 Storm Threat


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06z GFS is an advisory type event for a lot of SNE. 

The overnight runs haven’t been going quite as hard with the northern stream. That’s why we’re seeing some weaker solutions. But that doesn’t mean those are locked in...it’s still really close to being a powderkeg there as we bring the shortwave near us. You really need to track that vort under LI to get the higher end solutions. 

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z Euro is weak and sloppy

 

619f843466003.png

Mid range weakening /losing of the storm…happens every time like clockwork.  Doesn’t mean it’ll come back to something more organized in later runs, but this almost always seems to happen in this time range. In fact you pretty much have to expect this when tracking a potential from 6 days out. 

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7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Mid range weakening /losing of the storm…happens every time like clockwork.  Doesn’t mean it’ll come back to something more organized in later runs, but this almost always seems to happen in this time range. In fact you pretty much have to expect this when tracking a potential from 6 days out. 

I agree

Happens in every storm

NAO is negative and rising and PNA is positive but dropping. Usually an indication of a storm .

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I agree

Happens in every storm

NAO is negative and rising and PNA is positive but dropping. Usually an indication of a storm .

Very true.  And it happens 99% of the time. Models will completely lose the storm, Dampen it out to almost nothing it seems. Inherent flaw in the modeling at this time range? Who knows? But it always seems to happen. :violin:

 

Maybe it goes to shit, but this certainly isn’t the first time we’ve seen this type of blip in the midrange modeling. 
 

 

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z GFS is an advisory type event for a lot of SNE. 

The overnight runs haven’t been going quite as hard with the northern stream. That’s why we’re seeing some weaker solutions. But that doesn’t mean those are locked in...it’s still really close to being a powderkeg there as we bring the shortwave near us. You really need to track that vort under LI to get the higher end solutions. 

We're still talking a feature that is over no-man's land in the NE Pac. We're pretty much relying on just satellite sampling to get a handle on it.

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