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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen
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Even later December not looking good for winter weather lovers. 

The PV is consolidated near the North Pole and there is no sign of a displaced or stretched out PV into North America. 

Meanwhile the AO looks to stay positive and there are no solid precurrsors to any significant strat warming. 

Things can change but at the moment very boring weather.   

 

 

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6 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS run is interesting for the early next week storm.  Last year we could never get anything to trend in the right direction.  We will find out this week if we can get something to break our way…

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Unfortunately, so far, it didn’t trend our way. But that’s a long time in the future.

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Way out there so certainly will change, but the end of the GEFS run possibly shows things moving in our favor with the tropospheric vortex split and a -EPO ridge and western Russia/Scandinavian ridge pushing poleward. That -EPO is also nosing onto the west coast, although not enough. 
 

Until then things look kinda blah, although getting stormier so at least we can keep and eye out for needle threading. Dec 5-9 period looks active with some cold air nearby.

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I’m ready for a different weather pattern, whether it’s snowy or mild/sunny, but this upper Midwest/northeast, generally cloudy/windy/chilly pattern of the past month+ is getting a little played out. Also not even sure this is ideal for the snow lovers. Pretty active NS which we’ve mostly been on the southern fringe of. That said, it isn’t December yet lol, so can’t really draw any conclusions to this winter, but based on history I think you’d like to at least see some minor events by mid December. Either way, I would like a pattern switch with a more active southern stream for the sake of change.

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