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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


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29 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Color me still stupid, as the "normals" are 30-year "averages".   However I agree that medians are more valuable than averages, especially in smaller sample sizes.

Don't get me wrong.....there's value in knowing the mean, but to view that as the sole arbiter of 'normal' would be problematic.  If you did, very few days would be "normal".  The vast majority would be either above or below.

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Interesting to see the different traces between sites nearby based on how tucked into the valley they can get.

Some sites as low as 25F locally.  Others barely below freezing just a few hundred feet higher.  Seeing how different elevations react to the cooling with the T/Td separation.

Three sites going down in elevation around the Village:

1200ft… barely below freezing, can see temp/dew separation.

FDBDD676-E5BB-4455-B5D5-068E3DAA18D2.jpeg.b71d3ef07aff6f44bd58acf1d438bfb0.jpeg

800ft much colder at 27F right on the edge of shallow inversion.

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Then 755ft along river just fully under the inversion and an ice box to 25F.

39E1F288-C07B-4080-9DC1-9A9A429C079C.jpeg.f344e7dbf3512e94d43bb1aa9065e30d.jpeg

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Man another sign I’m getting older. Absolutely hate that it’s dark by 6pm. Was grilling the other night with a flash light. Hate to see it.

I don’t know if that’s an age thing unless you love darkness as a child, or loved living in mom’s basement with heavy drapes over the small windows.

I’ve always hated the early darkness… 3 months ago one could start going on a 2-3 hour hike after 6pm and have plenty of light, ha.  Wish we could get winter cold/snow with summer solar hours.  Ski outside until 9pm lol.

 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Man another sign I’m getting older. Absolutely hate that it’s dark by 6pm. Was grilling the other night with a flash light. Hate to see it.

My girlfriend hates it too.  For some reason that never bothers me..I always kind of liked it getting darker earlier as we progress through late summer and autumn. But I can completely understand why it bothers some folks. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Man another sign I’m getting older. Absolutely hate that it’s dark by 6pm. Was grilling the other night with a flash light. Hate to see it.

It’s one of the only things to dislike about autumn/winter in New England. Not a fan of leaving work at a normal time and it’s dark already, especially when things move to standard time in November.

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Subtle trends to ablate the higher QPF as this crosses now into the outer short range.

Also, more than subtle trend in the American guidance to suppress the latitude just enough to spare the region the heaviest combination of wind and QP numbers... The 12z GFS really only misty rains and winds the region with the heaviest CCB core banding just clipping SE zones.

I will draw attention that this is a west limb -NAO regime we are in during this thing, so a southern corrections are plausible. 

Even the Euro's hour 84 pivot SE - rather new in that guidance ... - may be a nod.  We are also still in new version/release ... hm..  This may end up being a pedestrian impactor. 

Also, bearing in mind, big ticket phenomenon being normalized heading into short terms is an issue all guidance seem to have trouble with - it's been very noticeable over the past 5 years to the extent where it is almost dependable .. you wack some 30% off the top 'magnificence' of these D7 juggernauts - based purely on that rather dependable error, having this coastal/off-shore storm system end up a little weaker than the Euro 968 mb low from two days ago ...might not be a bad expectation, either. 

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