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Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021


wdrag
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6 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I did not know Prospect park had a obs sight...Prospect park is a great place to compare to Central Park...ther once was a weather station in Prospect park a long time ago...

I was wondering if that was still active, it never shows up on searches. I remember seeing historical reports and obs from there (before my time ;) ).

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5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 4 pm, Central Park’s 2-day rainfall is 6.29”. That is the 4th highest 2-day figure on record for August.

 

if we can get another inch or 2 we will i think have 2 months in a row over 10 inches in the park i wonder if that has ever happened before.

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Just like winter, its fun reading back through the thread of the people who are too cool to believe certain models and “there is no way we’ll see even remotely close To those totals”. 
 

still time for someone in the metro to get to double digits.

9DC017D5-0171-4A21-9065-3A9277A3ACFD.jpeg

6F062B8D-D0E9-46EE-B628-513B07EDDDB4.jpeg

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9 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Just like winter, its fun reading back through the thread of the people who are too cool to believe certain models and “there is no way we’ll see even remotely close To those totals”. 
 

still time for someone in the metro to get to double digits.

9DC017D5-0171-4A21-9065-3A9277A3ACFD.jpeg

6F062B8D-D0E9-46EE-B628-513B07EDDDB4.jpeg

Very impressive. Models still have a ton of rain for far northern NJ tonight, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the higher totals end up coming from that area or the LHV. 

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2 hours ago, mob1 said:

Nothing today. Given the flat terrain and lack of rivers that flood, NYC generally only floods with very heavy rates that produce flash flooding. Hours of light to moderate rain won't do anything. 

How about now?

 

The rain just seems to be converging on NYC.  And it looks heavy too.

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We are in that window now where you do not want to break out of this rain on LI or see things try to clear out...still have 30-35kts at 925mb which ordinarily is not really bad but with soaked ground we could see 10s of thousands of outages very quickly if we see the rain end and get some breaks.  Parents told me Merrick is now gusting 30-31kts.

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Just now, sojitodd said:

How about now?

 

The rain just seems to be converging on NYC.  And it looks heavy too.

Don't see anything on Twitter but it's possible some areas are seeing localized flooding. Areas in NJ will probably have some river flooding soon, especially if those insane totals the HRRR depicts for tonight pan out. 

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5 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Don't see anything on Twitter but it's possible some areas are seeing localized flooding. Areas in NJ will probably have some river flooding soon, especially if those insane totals the HRRR depicts for tonight pan out. 

Plz post HRRR? 

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5 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Don't see anything on Twitter but it's possible some areas are seeing localized flooding. Areas in NJ will probably have some river flooding soon, especially if those insane totals the HRRR depicts for tonight pan out. 

For days the NHC maps have been showing and they have been saying "isolated areas of ten plus inches"...well nobody expected any of those isolated areas to be in NYC itself!

 

 Better than wind and surge I guess.

 

And I have had to be out watering damn flowers, shrubs, etc. in the 90 degree heat today lol. 

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1 minute ago, sojitodd said:

For days the NHC maps have been showing and they have been saying "isolated areas of ten plus inches"...well nobody expected any of those isolated areas to be in NYC itself!

 

 Better than wind and surge I guess.

 

And I have had to be out watering damn flowers, shrubs, etc. in the 90 degree heat today lol. 

 

Ultimately last night's event will result in 8-10 inch totals but most felt 3-6 was more likely prior to that.  Its always had to know where the axis of heaviest rain will be.  You know it'll be on the W side of a tropical cyclone at this latitude but it can be anywhere from the NW side to the SW side or the entire side and models typically never pin it down.  The Euro had the right idea overall today as did the high res GFS but both were too high on amounts.  The Euro had like 4 inches in Nassau County today alone and I don't think anyone quite saw that

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21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We are in that window now where you do not want to break out of this rain on LI or see things try to clear out...still have 30-35kts at 925mb which ordinarily is not really bad but with soaked ground we could see 10s of thousands of outages very quickly if we see the rain end and get some breaks.  Parents told me Merrick is now gusting 30-31kts.

Yep, it’s actually getting fairly gusty in Long Beach now that the rain stopped. Go figure. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Ultimately last night's event will result in 8-10 inch totals but most felt 3-6 was more likely prior to that.  Its always had to know where the axis of heaviest rain will be.  You know it'll be on the W side of a tropical cyclone at this latitude but it can be anywhere from the NW side to the SW side or the entire side and models typically never pin it down.  The Euro had the right idea overall today as did the high res GFS but both were too high on amounts.  The Euro had like 4 inches in Nassau County today alone and I don't think anyone quite saw that

It looked like the heaviest on the NHC site that they posted was up through central Connecticut and into Western Massachusetts. They did not have anything close to 6 inches for the NYC area. They had the six to eight areas in the fore mentioned places and then noted the "up to ten inches" in the remarks for those same areas. 

but again, better to have more rain than more surge or wind.

*this is just what the graphics on that site were showing for the last few days...so if the general public looked at it that is what they would have seen on the site.

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