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20 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Arctic sea ice only has a weak connection to our winters, right? I think minimum value is typically reached between the middle of September and the autumnal equinox?

 

Yes, the minimum is typically reached in early to mid-September.

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Morning thoughts…

Rain will end. The sun could break through the clouds late in the day. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 88°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.2°; 15-Year: 83.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 84.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.6°; 15-Year: 85.4°

Henri could pass offshore and approach eastern New England or the waters off eastern New England late this weekend.

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The next 8 days are averaging 84degs.(76/92), or +10.

77*(95%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast, streets wet.        82* by 1pm.        87*(64%RH) at 5pm   HI = 95.        90* here at 6pm (55%RH) for a HI =97.

Henri further east by 100 miles at least on the GFS.

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0.45 in the bucket after a high of with longer periods of sun on Wed.   78/72 today and clouds hanging around a bit.  Continues warm / humid and any longer breaks of sun and clearing Thu (8/19) - Sat (8/21) could see temps spike to near or >90.  Other wise hung up front/ Fred's remains slowly moving out and Henri to bring onshore flow and more storms /  clouds Sun (8/22) - Mon (8/23). 

Beyond there Tue (8/24) - Thu (8/26) it does look to clear and heat up as 850 temps soar to >16c and peak near `18c by Wednesday.

Longer range overall warmer than normal with next chance of some heat closer to next weekend (8/29).

 

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