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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Heavy band will stall near 84 and develop ENE ward. So 84 area to ORH and BOS I think give or takr 15-20 miles either side will get smoked. Not sure how much past HFD-TOL.

If that stalls there is going to be some serious issues 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Heavy band will stall near 84 and develop ENE ward. So 84 area to ORH and BOS I think give or takr 15-20 miles either side will get smoked. Not sure how much past HFD-TOL.

the HRRR from last night was clearly out to lunch and too far SE. That had 0.90" for Bridgeport, CT and they have had 2" in last 3 hours.

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8 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

the HRRR from last night was clearly out to lunch and too far SE. That had 0.90" for Bridgeport, CT and they have had 2" in last 3 hours.

mid/upper levels over qpf every time

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Just now, Sn0waddict said:

For a storm that was supposed to be fast this thing sure is crawling out of here.

Was thinking the same thing but it looks like its starting to pick up speed a bit. Actually I'm more shocked about the track...kinda tough to tell but it seems to still have a more northerly component than easterly 

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

58° +SHRA

Looks pretty soupy in SE MA with those 70s dews. Those areas will be primed for a bit of wind. 10z HRRR gets a decent amount of rain up into the Lakes Region.

This whole ordeal/cyclonic passage is meteorology nerds paradise.   It's an ambrosia of interesting stuff to pick through -

One ...the whole package defaults the region into a backside warm sector - even though technically ( ..or supposedly...) it is cool-core transitioning, and should have modest CAA -it does, but it can't sensibily appeal that way.  For ORH-ASH ( my line ), we'll have 69 DPs at closest pass, but the temp may only be 70... Tomorrows it'll be 84/64 so it's just interesting how its both - all it's really doing is forcibly winning against a lodged in BD airmass. 

Two .. at a glance this thing right now on radar reminds me of the 2005 Dec thing.  It's really tight. It occurs to me, I never did actually check the storm phase diagrams for the Euro inputs - is that even possible ??  I wonder if I was too quick to judge this as a TC entity nearing our latitude, as the surface evolution of that models "looked" TC-like because it was compact.  But at present sat/rad, it looks like the Euro's pressure pattern layout, regardless of the phase.  I gotta figure though it still has tropical characteristics with DPs over eastern LI, SE zone in the mid 70s. Plus the rain wall/arc on the N side is unusually thick and dense and proficient, above any kind of standard  ex-trop cyclonic output.   The loop show some impressively cold tops and domes lurching over the surrounding canopy.

Three ...Even if we don't observed 40 kt winds at the surface... these other attributes are impressive.  Particularly considering this thing's track history. Bordering on a wtf storm.   I guess though the idea here is that it timed just exquisitely well to conserve kinematics when it hooked up with the weak trough - getting a mechanical exit jet structural advantage. Looking at the 300mb on the guidance they have a nice exit fan up there over Maine ... albeit somewhat stretched. interesting.

I'm sure I'm leaving stuff out.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Getting smoked here

 

 

July9_940aRadar.gif

You can see the sleet washing out there in southern Middlesex County as those deep cellular reds transition north to more smooth yellow echos… oh wait, tropical storm not winter.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Bit of a stein break now. You can see as the low moves ENE more stuff develops along the track. Almost like winter.

Can I expect anything Frozen out of Elsa or should I just Let It Go? 1.56 since midnight. 

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