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On 7/26/2021 at 5:24 PM, bluewave said:

JFK was able to set its highest dew point record of 84° in 2016. But you can see how all the highest records were in recent years. The mid-July 1995 heatwave was impressive for several sites reaching the 100/80 mark. 

6BBE9BF0-4A1C-4182-8A85-27BBF446DE71.thumb.png.dd5798fc0066ad5a584e4b1dea895471.png

 

Crazy how many of those were from 2019!  That was when JFK had their back to back 99 temps on the weekend and the highest heat index (117) of all time correct?

 

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41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was one of the cooler Julys for a top 10 warmest June and July period.

 

Sure didn't feel much cooler, but then again, I'm probably still in shock from June...

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

 

All the July heat since 2010 has really raised the bar. 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jul
Season
Mean 79.9 79.9
2021 79.1 79.1
2020 80.8 80.8
2019 80.6 80.6
2018 78.2 78.2
2017 77.3 77.3
2016 79.9 79.9
2015 79.0 79.0
2014 77.0 77.0
2013 80.9 80.9
2012 80.8 80.8
2011 82.7 82.7
2010 82.3 82.3


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2011 82.7 0
2 1993 82.5 0
3 2010 82.3 0
4 1994 81.9 0
5 2013 80.9 0
6 2020 80.8 0
- 2012 80.8 0
- 1999 80.8 0
7 2019 80.6 0
8 1955 80.5 0
9 1988 80.4 0
10 2002 80.0 0
11 2016 79.9 0
12 1983 79.6 0
- 1966 79.6 0
13 1995 79.5 0
- 1949 79.5 0
14 2006 79.4 0
- 1987 79.4 0
15 1981 79.2 0
- 1952 79.2 0
16 2021 79.1 5
17 2015 79.0 0
18 1980 78.8 0
19 2008 78.7 0
20 1973 78.6 0
21 2005 78.3 0
- 1982 78.3 0
22 2018 78.2 0
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Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region today.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 27):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 17 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 32 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 15 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 8 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 21 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 16 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 6 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 17 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 27 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 22 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 12 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 28 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 16 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 17 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Out West, record temperatures were reported in a number of locations. Records included:

Billings: 106° (old record: 103°, 1935 and 1947)
Casper: 100° (old record: 99°, 2008)
Rapid City: 107° (old record: 104°, 1987)

Meanwhile, from 4 pm - 5 pm MST, Tucson picked up 1.27" of rain. Through 5:20 pm MST, Tucson had picked up 1.29" of rain, bringing the monthly total to 7.08". That makes July 2021 the wettest July on record in Tucson. The old record was 6.80", which was set in 2017. July 2021 is also Tucson's second wettest month on record.

A strong cold front will cross the region tonight the remainder of the month will be cooler than normal. Showers and thundershowers are possible tonight and again on Thursday. The month could end with an unseasonable push of cool air.

Even as an unseasonably cool air mass pushes into parts of the Northeast, record-breaking heat could develop in northwestern Canada. That heat will likely persist through the upcoming weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +10.71 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.917 today.

On July 25 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.186 (RMM). The July 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.199 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (1.2° below normal).

 

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Not threading yet... will wait til late today.   Could be tornadic near warm front.  A couple of models have very heavy rain near a triple point and so its a concern, especially NJ and maybe LI?  Have seen the wind fields.  Don't like some of the instab parameters. Need to rereview with 12z/28 guidance. 

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Models hinting  at a very cool ending to July. Be interesting to see if a spot like Newark can actually dip under 60°. The last time this happened on July 31st at Newark was 1956.
 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   7/28/2021  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 WED  28| THU 29| FRI 30| SAT 31| SUN 01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04 CLIMO
 X/N  85| 69  78| 69  85| 59  82| 66  83| 65  82| 64  81| 67  85 67 86

 

Data for July 31 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
Precipitation 
Snowfall 
Snow Depth 
1932-07-31 83 56 T 0.0 M
1956-07-31 81 58 0.00 0.0 0
1936-07-31 79 58 0.00 0.0 0
1964-07-31 82 61 0.00 0.0 0
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The last 4 days of July are averaging 76(68/84), or -1.0.

Month to date is. 76.5[-1.1].       July should end at  76.4[-1.1].

For tomorrow: EURO  1.8", CMC 1.2", GFS/SREF  0.4".

71*(85%RH) here at 6am, clearing skies, street wet.

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Morning thoughts…

It will become partly to mostly sunny today. It will also be cooler than yesterday with high temperatures mainly in the lower and middle 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 82°

Newark: 86°

Philadelphia: 87°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 86.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 88.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.6°; 15-Year: 88.5°

Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend.

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While I am a summer and winter enthusiast, this summer has been in the bottom for me. I really hope we can pull of a dry, beautiful fall after this gross summer. The standing water has really increased the mosquito population to the point where it is uncomfortable too go outside near wet areas. The ticks have also been off the charts, but that was predicted after the winter we had. Luckily this summer I have an administrative and teaching role otherwise I’d be out there collecting ticks for surveillance. While I normally enjoy some field work, this summer is worse than most. Bottom line though, always check for ticks!

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6 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

While I am a summer and winter enthusiast, this summer has been in the bottom for me. I really hope we can pull of a dry, beautiful fall after this gross summer. The standing water has really increased the mosquito population to the point where it is uncomfortable too go outside near wet areas. The ticks have also been off the charts, but that was predicted after the winter we had. Luckily this summer I have an administrative and teaching role otherwise I’d be out there collecting ticks for surveillance. While I normally enjoy some field work, this summer is worse than most. Bottom line though, always check for ticks!

next week looks nice and dry-temps near 80 with low humidity.....

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