July 2021

[Fantom X]

Maybe someone can start a gofundme that can fund the trimming at central park ASOS. Im sure many enthusiasts wouldn't mind to chip in. 

[psv88]

HAHA, the Park is sitting at 76, FOK at 83, all other stations warmer, what a joke!

[doncat]

87/73 here.

[SI Mailman]

Yep, full sunshine and feeling it out here now.

[psv88]

PArk down to 55 degrees

[doncat]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

PArk down to 55 degrees

Thats more like it

[binbisso]

The park is up to 86ﾟ jump 10ﾟ in the last hour

[FPizz]

88/74  here currently.  

[Cfa]

88/78.

[LoboLeader1]

Partly sunny here, temp 87/RH 60/DP 70 

[SnoSki14]

Models hinting at some nice relief from the heat after the mild Thurs-Sat heatwave. 

We'll have to see what happens beyond as those cool downs have been followed by record breaking heat a few days later.

[bluewave]

91° at Newark and 90° at Caldwell. So they are both near the top of the list for 90° days by mid-July with 21. The observational record at Caldwell only goes back to 1999.

Time Series Summary for CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Jan 1 to Jul 14	Missing Count
1	2021-07-14	21	1
2	2012-07-14	17	4
3	2020-07-14	14	0
-	2010-07-14	14	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Jan 1 to Jul 14	Missing Count
1	2010-07-14	23	0
2	1993-07-14	22	0
3	1994-07-14	21	0
-	1987-07-14	21	0
	2021-07-14	21	0
4	1966-07-14	20	0

[Rtd208]

Current temp 91/DP 69/RH 49%

[Roger Smith]

Record July rainfalls (2021 will pass 1919 in 6th place with any new measurable rainfalls)

and what these months had recorded after 13 days in brackets ... 

 1. 1889 __ 11.89" (2.08")

 2. 1975 __ 11.77" (5.08")

 3. 1897 ___ 9.56" (3.29")

 4. 1928 ___ 8.89" (6.10")

 5. 1880 ___ 8.53" (5.22")

 6. 1919 ___ 8.50" (0.86")

 7.  2021 was 8.49" after 13th

 8. 1997 ___ 8.39" (1.70")

 9. 1960 ___ 8.29" (1.90")

10. 1988 ___ 8.14" (0.69")

______________________________________________

Looks like 2021 is easily going to get to third place and may be edging into top spots near the end of the month (from the current guidance, would say another inch likely by 25th and then more speculative heavy rainfalls depicted near end of the month). 

In the weekly summary thread that I started recently, I noted that 2021 had broken weekly rainfall records for several consecutive intervals and the peak amounts (6.58" ending 12th and 13th) represent the second highest totals for any week fully within July with 6.75" from 25th to 31st 1889 the only higher value. Also these were the wettest weeks at NYC since June 7-13 2013 had over seven inches of rain. They were also the wettest weeks at NYC for any week ending June 14 to July 30 (1869 to present). 

[Cfa]

2 hours ago, Cfa said:

88/78.

I’d always suspected my dews ran a bit high, and they probably do, but I recently bought a Kestrel and it seems my PWS isn’t off by much.

PWS - 85/77

Kestrel - 86/76

Snuck in a 90 today, low was 68.

[doncat]

Made it to 91° today before t storm dropped temp to 80°.

[tim]

...weird kinds day at the shore(tiana beach hampton bays)..fog was thick..visability < 1/2 mile..but sun was out..no wind to speak of...but a nice warm day @ the beach..water temp around 70*..i'll take after the last few days of the murky BS..

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 93 here.

Current temp 84/DP 72/RH 67%

[donsutherland1]

Washington, DC to Newark saw temperatures rise into the 90s. Tomorrow will be another steamy day with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Through Friday, temperatures will continue to top out mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The weekend could see more clouds and perhaps thundershowers.

In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +26.22 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.496 today.

On July 12 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.091 (RMM). The July 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.391 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.1° (0.4° below normal).

 

[SACRUS]

7/14

EWR: 93
PHL: 93
ACY: 92
LGA: 91
New Brnswck: 90
BLM: 90
TEB: 89
TTN: 88
ISP: 87
NYC: 87
JFK: 86

[uncle W]

my block got some thunder and lightning and a few drops from both storms...one to the north and one to the south...

[bluewave]

This is been one of the most persistent heatwave followed by heavy rain patterns since late May. We are currently in the heatwave phase. So we are on track for another heavy round of convection after this heatwave peaks.
 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Precipitation
2021-05-22	96	0.00
2021-05-23	94	0.00
2021-05-24	68	0.00
2021-05-25	81	0.00
2021-05-26	94	0.09
2021-05-27	87	0.01
2021-05-28	71	1.15
2021-05-29	52	0.58
2021-05-30	53	1.15
2021-05-31	76	T
2021-06-01	80	0.00
2021-06-02	79	T
2021-06-03	77	0.41
2021-06-04	83	0.19
2021-06-05	95	0.00
2021-06-06	97	0.00
2021-06-07	95	0.04
2021-06-08	93	2.19
2021-06-09	96	0.53
2021-06-10	85	0.00
2021-06-11	73	T
2021-06-12	72	T
2021-06-13	78	T
2021-06-14	78	0.16
2021-06-15	85	0.01
2021-06-16	81	0.00
2021-06-17	81	0.00
2021-06-18	88	0.00
2021-06-19	93	0.05
2021-06-20	91	0.00
2021-06-21	92	T
2021-06-22	80	0.17
2021-06-23	80	0.00
2021-06-24	79	0.00
2021-06-25	83	0.00
2021-06-26	86	0.07
2021-06-27	95	0.00
2021-06-28	99	0.00
2021-06-29	102	0.00
2021-06-30	103	0.54
2021-07-01	89	0.94
2021-07-02	81	1.53
2021-07-03	70	0.05
2021-07-04	84	0.00
2021-07-05	89	0.00
2021-07-06	97	0.55
2021-07-07	97	T
2021-07-08	88	0.08
2021-07-09	91	1.60
2021-07-10	86	T
2021-07-11	82	T
2021-07-12	93	0.69
2021-07-13	78	0.01
2021-07-14	93	0.07

[CIK62]

Today's more reasonable GFS is averaging 80degs.(72/89) or +2.0 for the next 8 days.

Month to date is  74.9[-2.3].        Should be  76.8[-0.8] by the 23rd.

75*(85%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue, scuzzy sky.       78* at 9am.         80* by 11am.         85* at 4pm.

[bluewave]

This amount of heat and heavy rainfall combined since late May is unprecedented.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation May 22 to Jul 14	# 90° days and Max Tempersture
1	1984-07-14	16.63	12    97°
2	2003-07-14	13.46	10    95°
3	2013-07-14	13.10	14    96
4	2021-07-14	12.86	20  103°

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

A very warm and humid day lies ahead. It will be partly cloudy and very warm today. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 89°

Newark: 93°

Philadelphia: 93°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.2°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and hot.

[uofmiami]

 

[LoboLeader1]

75 here as of 8AM....RH 83% / DP 68 

 

[Rtd208]

Current temp 85/DP 69/RH 60%

[SACRUS]

84/69 and mostly sunny now.  If we maintain the sun - today should overperform on temps.  Same goes for tomorrow when 850 temps spike to >18c.  With enough sun we should see the warmer spots push upper 90s.  Saturday is a timing of the front on whether we can make more 90s.  Sunday front is slow to move through with more storms and rain continuing into Monday before clearing out.

Mon 7/19 - Thu 7/22 :  near normal, piece of the western heat may push a day of heat.  Beyond there next weekend 7/24 -25 looks to potentially have a candian cool (how cool can it go) airmass before a transition back to the warm to hot pattern.

 

[SACRUS]

11AM Roundup

EWR: 86
BLM: 86
New Brnswck: 86
ISP: 85
ACY: 85
PHL: 84
JFK: 84
TEB: 84
TTN: 83
NYC: 83
LGA: 81