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June, 2021 Discussion


Typhoon Tip
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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Overall it has been I think for several years. It's fair to ask if it's related to any CC. My guess is that the sample size is too small, but why can't CC be in the conversation? CC is usually associated with all bad wx all the time though. I'm sure CC and quiet tornado seasons aren't sexy for the media.

Good article here. Mostly pertaining to EF5 tornado frequency, but also touches on CC as well.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/05/its-been-a-record-long-time-since-the-last-ef5-tornado-what-does-that-mean/

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Just throwin' it out there...

The chances of any one location getting pegged by a tornado classification that is in of its self, exceptionally rare   ... mm, I don't know. Might just be a good night at the Blackjack table, but the 'night' in this metaphor is 20 years long. 

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3 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Good article here. Mostly pertaining to EF5 tornado frequency, but also touches on CC as well.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/05/its-been-a-record-long-time-since-the-last-ef5-tornado-what-does-that-mean/

He’s generally right in that quiet or busy periods can turn on a dime. It’s also too short of a sample size to really say. 

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35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Have y'all been paying attention to the drought in Cali/OR/Wa and the SW ?

wow huh -

It's June, and dry season is about to begin. We're looking at environmental impacts that are typical in early September in the 'normal climate dry years'  Shutting down reservoirs and ( granted it is CNN trying to foment thumb swipes, mouse clicks and T.V. channeling ) setting off plausible riots over potable water sourcing -

Meanwhile, this eerily tall ridge dome out there in the modeling mid range is threatening to pop and flood its lava down to the L.A. shores, possibly up as far as N. Central Valley of California. 

Some of us mentioned two months ago that we were worried about the hot season out west, this year. I was not part of that group of posting(s) but nod head - jesus christ.

I mean, I'm looking at 2 meter temps in all guidance. Granted the whole synopsis appears to only last for 3 or 4 days but two of them suckers are 109 to 115 up-down the Central Valley, and given the resolution of products, its hard to tell if the typical marine restorative BL flow is really even protecting the shores/cities at this point. I can't imagine if that air were to some how get west of the coastal ranges and spill off shore.  It probably won't?  but man.

 

 

What does that mean for their fire season.

Drought levels weren't close to this bad last year. I sense another catastrophic season, maybe worst we've ever seen.

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I don't mind it...the cool air.  Ooph.

Loving it. 

We've put a kind of obscure historical heat event in the books - the kind that doesn't make history :arrowhead:  ...But what I mean is, have to go back so far to find a 5 day 90+er at this time of year, where/whence the climate inference argues that is very difficult to do.   We may not of hit a daily record, but this is one of those that smolders in the aggregate.  That is really should be notorious for doing so < June 10 of any year - definitely at this particular geographic nexus of butt-bang reasons to never be warm at least excuse imagined.  Or forgetting reasons - it just doesn't.  F!

So in a symbolic sense of it, it's probably kinda sort okay if we settle back and pull June closer to just above normal as opposed ludicrous hypertension.

Was just looking at the NAM's 12z FOUS grid and has 22 C at 980 over Logan, with a SW flow on Sunday, and 850s to 14 and change.  That''s not like languishing in the cool side of the westerlies anyway.   We're only correcting for 2 days at this point, when we probably should go more like week to 10 days considering the former..

I also 'get the feeling'  that we are in 2 step ahead, 1 roll-back longer term seasonal transition, and the next heat-up may be more important.  Just three weeks ago, we had a gutted ridge that got 594 heights to retro under us, but only 85 F warmth...Then we had a weird shallow curvature nor'easter deal with cool 2 -3" beneficial rains.  Then, this last week the ridge returns more prominently with higher temperature potential, and duration.  Now we relax back... See were this is going ?  The next propel forward may actually be the true SW heat release... which that last one did not have that "extra double top secret propationary" heat charged atomic air - all the heat was home grown. 

Imagine if Hot Saturday, August 1975 happened on say, a June 26th after 45 years of CC, under a 100% canopy sun

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I’m certainly curious to hear people thoughts on the current tornado classification system. I mean as it stands the El Reno tor is officially an EF3. We all saw the photos of the Twistex teams car. So someone more knowledgeable then me...does the EF scale only apply to standing structures (barns, homes, silos etc?) The YCC article I posted states Doppler on wheels is recording winds speeds at the surface 43mph then suggested. Do we need to rethink how we classify tornadoes again in the near future with the technology we have now? I think we all know an EF3 isn’t leaving a ground scar like this despite whatever it did or did not hit on its path. 

Either way as we move later into June looks like this could be another pretty slow year for Tornadoes. 

0A2ABF33-8283-4727-ABD2-62767F4B1080.jpeg

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11 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

I’m certainly curious to hear people thoughts on the current tornado classification system. I mean as it stands the El Reno tor is officially an EF3. We all saw the photos of the Twistex teams car. So someone more knowledgeable then me...does the EF scale only apply to standing structures (barns, homes, silos etc?) The YCC article I posted states Doppler on wheels is recording winds speeds at the surface 43mph then suggested. Do we need to rethink how we classify tornadoes again in the near future with the technology we have now? I think we all know an EF3 isn’t leaving a ground scar like this despite whatever it did or did not hit on its path. 

Either way as we move later into June looks like this could be another pretty slow year for Tornadoes. 

0A2ABF33-8283-4727-ABD2-62767F4B1080.jpeg

It is very possible at some point in the future there could be discussions about reclassifying tornadoes, however, I think it would be extremely challenging. However, given the increase in technology we have now it's very possible we can classify tornadoes on the scale without them having done any damage...so long an accurate wind measurement can be recorded. Given increase in radar technology too we can probably become (more) accurate and precise on estimating winds speeds from radar

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

I think +4/+4 is a little high, but I’m not sure how much AVP has changed. I know CON has increased something like +3/+5 in December between those 2 datasets. I’m not sure that the CLIMO numbers there are what is used by the statistical model…it may just be a general reference for what to expect this time of year. 

More than a little high.  To increase the 30-year norms by 4° in a single 10-year advance would mean that 2011-20 was 12° warmer than 1981-90.  Without diving into the numbers, that seems like 3-4 times more than reality.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I’m sorry but 60s in June isn’t a top 10er.   Hot and humid in Chicago today…probably a piece gets to you over the weekend

 80 degrees of absolutely perfection, sun is hot Steve is not. Pool 77 tan is on, relaxin and chillaxin. Man 2 days in a row and the Euro continues to crow as far as the weenie can see. Only piece of humidity is Sunday night during rain but then its back to Cocadoodledewlessness.  Top tenner here sorry you are there.

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 80 degrees of absolutely perfection, sun is hot Steve is not. Pool 77 tan is on, relaxin and chillaxin. Man 2 days in a row and the Euro continues to crow as far as the weenie can see. Only piece of humidity is Sunday night during rain but then its back to Cocadoodledewlessness.  Top tenner here sorry you are there.

Sun angle right now does make it feel warmer.  72 here.  

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