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June, 2021 Discussion


Typhoon Tip
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June welcomes you with a possible

                                                                                  "Heat Storm"

Short version: 

This might ( "might" LOL ) be interesting for those with hobby/interest/nerdly ocd in the summertime Meteorological spectrum.  I do realize, that is a minority group ... sure. But seriously, the type and scale of heat looming here would be of the ilk that affects all - these extended leads come with the usual caveats    

It is early, but often the more important ( "larger" ) events will emerge out of the ether of guidance noise, at the farther temporal horizons - we look for consistency ( run to to run, day to day in the early handling) as well as whether disparate guidance sources also agree ( "cross-guidance" ).

Longer version:

We have both  ;)

Firstly, we may think of this only when dealing with mid latitude winter storms and cyclones. However, the concepts are the same.  Even for phenomenon such as heat and cold waves, etc.

We go from this weekend's local -scaled climate nadir, into an ~ 5-day smeared recovery, transitioning gradually into an ominous stretch of heat - targeting as best as can be at this range .. probably next Saturday through much of that 2nd week of June.

Seeking all three 00z cycle ens means: Euro, GEFs, and GEPs ... they all maintain heights nearing 590 dm while in concept, very slowly retrograde a planetary -scaled ridge signal.  The flat structure of lower latitude /SE ridge genesis begins this week.. but then we see latter surge that really sends the upheaval heading into the deeper range. This latter formulation is over the WAR region of the west Atlantic,  growing y, x, z-coordinates.  It repositions over 4 to 5 days to the MV ... a time in which there is a well establish lower transport of continental thick warmth.  

The Euro even has quasi meshed EML ejection and hints at 850 kinetically charged Sonoran released air source getting mixed in... If that happens, this gets into whole 'nother realm of big heat. 

But for now... +16 to 18C 850 mb air layering at this range, by all three ens means for 5 to 7 days, is impressive enough.  Doing so at this range is rare alone for any one of these guidance sources, but to have all them doing the same is another aspect and meaningfulness to deterministic weather forecasting entirely... 

Conclusion: 

For now... we are higher, much higher than normal confidence for any D6-15 range in fact, that an extended period of positive departures will engulf much of the U.S. ..Lakes-OV-NE-MA back to the MV. 

But, my personal 'add on' to that is the "gestalt" of weightiness in the signal seems to be of that ilk that is ... something frankly that is early detection historic.   1993 ... Sandy... 1992... 1978 (relative to modeling era). This does have that 'ooh' vibe to it.  Trend, operational model tenors, ens means ... hell, even the climate nadir we are suffering now...needing to be corrected - a CC era that needs that to be the case no less... ha ... it's like every angle on this uncut diamond looks like with a little polishing it could be historic find.   So we'll see -I think heat (and cold for that matter..) waves are just as important - or should be - to early risk assessment.

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Should also add...   tropics -

This pattern suggestion is often conducive to "home grown" variety/SW Atl Basin TS activity.   It's also hitting at the right climatological time, where as June typically does see the most activity between the western Caribbean/Gulf OM and Bahamas.  This waves the goof range of the operational GFS are probably just based upon that back-ground 'numerical instability' ( proneness) to development, but does help underscore the potential. 

Presently and preceding week does show the 200 mb v/p as reversing signs in the Atlantic - suggestive moving forward, too. 

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Signal's still early.   Needs to "cook" ( nyuk) for a while. 

Still the higher confidence mode is a period ...perhaps extending a week or even ten days, from ~ June 5 to the 12th/15th, of warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures, with indeterminate dew point intervals.  

Of less confidence is the extremeness, as is usually the case at this range.  

The last four consecutive 12-hourly cycles of the EPS, GEFs and GEPs ensemble means, have increased the amplitude centered on 168 thru 192 hours out, ...leading up to and including the 00z run.  That's a long sentence for "the ridge amplitude is still trending bigger" - just trying to elucidate why/how that is being assessed.   

The operational runs are over programmed to sniff out stupid festering nuances, and even the Euro ..with it's so-called smoothing and normalization bs ...seems to come up with hole-punches in the ridge that don't look realistic.  Like SE U.S. Coastal sea-breeze convection festering over some random night ...turning into S/W by convective feedback processes... cutting it off, knocking the feet out of the ridge - ...I'm not sure the models are really good enough to catch butterflies in the actual act of farting like that...but we'll see.  The GFS just in general can't seem to scaffold the warm side of the westerlies over the continental U.S. ...ever.

It doesn't have a problem doing this over the Pacific Ocean... interesting.  It's got a +4 SD ridge out there NE of HA ..which should impose a historically deep mode of the PNA as a down stream mass--conserved wave- coupling into trough west, big-ish height dome over WV ... --> normal R-wave shit.  It does but shirks it.  It meanders the 588 instead of "filling it in" ...with all these weird kind of 500 mb dents pitting the ridge like those dark blotches on PCS scan of ex-NFL'er ...  Fitting I suppose, because clearly the model forgets that there is actually a warm side of the westerlies much of the time.  

The ensemble means of all three ... agreeing in such a manner as they do is still pretty telling that this 'could' nest more 'big heat' in there - may just need to get on the other side of the mid week shit for it to emerge if ever.

 

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I always like when James Bay pushes 90°. Like John said…still early, but the plume of highest 850T anomalies has consistently been into Canada on the EPS. Advect that in with NW flow and NNE gets very hot again like last year.

6BB5BDC0-B345-48B4-8E12-E56707174CC6.gif

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Just now, dendrite said:

I always like when James Bay pushes 90°. Like John said…still early, but the plume of highest 850T anomalies has consistently been into Canada on the EPS. Advect that in with NW flow and NNE gets very hot again like last year.

6BB5BDC0-B345-48B4-8E12-E56707174CC6.gif

Blech. Glad I will be gone by then. 90s and dews suck up here. 

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18 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Blech. Glad I will be gone by then. 90s and dews suck up here. 

Buddy of mine has a 2nd home/cottage he's spend the last decade vitalizing, next to a lake outside of Fryeburg - across the way from the Steve King place I guess. 

He was saying that it's like the warm season is so short up there, the air mass becomes dense with a competition on any summer evening, between DP moisture vs mosquitoes.  That blue tinted haze against the back drop is actually a fog of vampires.  He joked they're like hummingbirds in size, too.  So aggressive in fact that even while inside, they bob and probe relentlessing to a competing mat against the window screens.   Basically, you can't be out side - there is no warm season in those interior woodland lake regions - there's just winter, then blood suck. 

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Bring the torch. 

Yeah all set with this today.  Need the rain to stop today so I can get outside, ha.  Hate being stuck inside this time of year.

That over-the-top stuff is usually more of the higher diurnal range drier heat, at least to start the first couple days.  Usually eventually gets humid but often a couple not dry hot days at the beginning.

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Buddy of mine has a 2nd home/cottage he's spend the last decade vitalizing, next to a lake outside of Fryeburg - across the way from the Steve King place I guess. 

He was saying that it's like the warm season is so short up there, the air mass becomes dense with a competition on any summer evening, between DP moisture vs mosquitoes.  That blue tinted haze against the back drop is actually a fog of vampires.  He joked they're like hummingbirds in size, too.  So aggressive in fact that even while inside, they bob and probe relentlessing to a competing mat against the window screens.   Basically, you can't be out side - there is no warm season in those interior woodland lake regions - there's just winter, then blood suck. 

There is definitely a sense you get here that the plants and wildlife know they have realistically three months of reliably warm weather to do their thing. They come out swinging right away. No slow roll-out of spring. They also disappear just as quickly in September. 

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah all set with this today.  Need the rain to stop today so I can get outside, ha.  Hate being stuck inside this time of year.

That over-the-top stuff is usually more of the higher diurnal range drier heat, at least to start the first couple days.  Usually eventually gets humid but often a couple not dry hot days at the beginning.

80/50 stuff isn’t too bad, I agree. I don’t have AC here so for me any humidity really sucks. There is no escape. 

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13 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

80/50 stuff isn’t too bad, I agree. I don’t have AC here so for me any humidity really sucks. There is no escape. 

Yeah we've got AC if need it though I hate to run it.  We have good ventilation in this place and being down along the river, near golf course and fields we get plenty cool at night if it's not overly humid.  Our AC is a bit old though and takes a minute to cool the place down (it's the opposite of efficient), so I've been investigating mini-splits and we think we'll get that put in this summer.  I think Tamarack mentioned it but those heat pump systems have some good rebates from state/federate efficiency programs.

Of course I've seen your place and the cost to cool our 1,200 square feet is going to be a bit different than your zones :lol:.

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Fwiw, WPC's general D7-14 risk assessment is flagging moderate N, slight S, for excessive heat criteria.

This matches our own consensus/obs that it may bleed 'over-top,' I would offer though some of the hottest weather from the N. Mid Atlantic to PWM, ME actually arrives on WNW to NW trajectories. Usually at the sacrifice of a stalled BD cold front blocking D.E.M from the party like Steve Roubel outside "Studio 54" circa 1979. just sayin'  .

If we don't,  looks to me like roughly D5 to 12 might range 87 NYC ( with donkey nuts DPs ) to 96 BTV, where the DP is lower do to source/wind direction in the mid BL respectively.  

I also want to add that this is 'continental tucking' again - just a personal hypothesis of mine that an over active late spring polar jet tends to draw the continental/SW ejected air conveyor N-W of climo, and then there tends to be more S/SE DP into the Mid Atlantic to NYC.  Boston is a wild card there - sort of hinted below with the southern edge of this speculation chart down to rt 2.  I could see Boston with a 93/63 ( f'n hot enough!), while BTV puts up a 98/56;  and neither of those extremes shows up until we are day 3-5 outlooks btw.

image.png.24b6141ffc6e5900d2dd340a2347bf8e.png

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Wow, the Euro.

Illustrates a 12z 850 mb temperature layout of +16 to 18C, all over Mi-N In and Oh, Ny, Pa and New England, both next Saturday Sunday. 

It's synopsis leading is still suggestive of over-the-top, but it's just getting so areal expansive in coverage that it really doesn't matter - it appears NYC-BOS-BTV is just 91 to 96 as the dice range - probably still weight the higher side, N. What's alarming - for lack of better adverb - is that this is getting more ominous as we get closer, and it's still a week away.  

The SFC pressure pattern layout is like that perfect bread baking 10 to 15 mph breeze that is utterly useless for ventilation, but perfect to make sure the atmosphere is a crucible to 800 mb level.

That's the other thing,... those adiabats if that's right will be taller than 850 sigma.  It's rare around here to get boundary layers that tall, but that starting to look like it can overcome the sea-level density stuff.  The hints of that because there appears to be a lee side thermal trough kinking the isobars from SE NH to southern NJ.

When was the last time we had a convincing hundo day ? 

D9, 21C 850 mb over BTV !

 

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Just now, mreaves said:

This will likely be the week I install.  I’d likely be fine as it doesn’t sound all that humid but I’m such a fragile flower that I want no discomfort while trying to sleep. 

Just installed here. Not so much for the heat, but due to the increased humidity. Probably won’t need it until Saturday or Sunday. 

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