June 2021

[SACRUS]

20 hours ago, psv88 said:

That’s not Friday to Tuesday brother. The weekend will be excellent, maybe some rain later on Sunday 

I hope it does improve but I think Saturday will see variable to mostly cloudy skies and Sunday any sun may be morning short lived before clouds and some rain showers arrive in the PM.

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, dWave said:

That makes sense, western Queens is very dense and urbanized, and becomes a little less so the futher east you get. Also around LIC you have about 12 miles of land including the most urbanized parts of Brooklyn separating you from the Atlantic, once you get out to GCP, your lined up with Jamaica Bay and now you only have about 6 miles btwn you and the water.

I feel similar about Manhattan, during the day it does feel a little less hot compared to just outside of it, I think its cuz there so much shade from tall bldgs. Just out of there esp Queens and the Bx its still very urbanized but without all the shade, so much more sun reaches the ground to bake you.  I do noticed those temps really peak on and near roads like 278/BQE, Bruckner, Deegan, Cross Bronx. That kinda what alot of NYC is like away from the water or in a park.

Yep, the differences are stark.  Manhattan actually has trees and I think the buildings being close together provide some shade.  The temps really ramp up as soon as I get into Queens but they start falling fairly rapidly again past that park with the lake in it that's near the GCP.

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

When you take the average of NY coastal climate division #4, it was the 2nd warmest behind 2010.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/1/7/1895-2021?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

JJA average 

201006 - 201008	75.2°F	126	3.5°F
202006 - 202008	74.5°F	125	2.8°F
201606 - 201608	74.2°F	124	2.5°F
200506 - 200508	73.9°F	123	2.2°F
201106 - 201108	73.9°F	123	2.2°F
199906 - 199908	73.7°F	121	2.0°F
201206 - 201208	73.4°F	120	1.7°F
201806 - 201808	73.4°F	120	1.7°F
201906 - 201908	73.2°F	118	1.5°F
201506 - 201508	73.1°F	117	1.4°F
194906 - 194908	73.0°F	116	1.3°F
200606 - 200608	73.0°F	116	1.3°F
200206 - 200208	72.9°F	114	1.2°F
201306 - 201308	72.9°F	114	1.2°F

July

 

 

201007	78.5°F	126	4.6°F
202007	77.8°F	125	3.9°F
201307	77.7°F	124	3.8°F
199907	77.4°F	123	3.5°F
201107	77.4°F	123	3.5°F
201907	77.3°F	121	3.4°F
195507	77.0°F	120	3.1°F
201207	76.7°F	119	2.8°F
199407	76.6°F	118	2.7°F
201607	76.5°F	117	2.6°F
195207	76.3°F	116	2.4°F

The thing I find odd is that so few of the high 90 degree summers are on this list.  Just off the top of my head I would've thought 1966, 1980, 1983, 1991, and 1993 should be near the top.

 

[SACRUS]

June departures first 1/3 of the month

 

EWR: +7.7
LGA: +7.2
NYC: +6.7
TTN: +6.1
JFK: +3.9

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

it's a close match....but  Not here.   Feb 2010 was mostly rain here. We got 3 inches of slop at the end....   The rain/snow line in 2010 was further west for 1888 it was well east of New Haven, CT

Right, also a quicker storm than what 1888 was.  We had a foot of snow after an inch of rain which was the first time thats happened.  March 1888 was also rain at the start but the storm lasted so long that over 2 feet of snow fell on the backend.

Imagine that- over 2 feet of backside snow!

 

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Right, also a quicker storm than what 1888 was.  We had a foot of snow after an inch of rain which was the first time thats happened.  March 1888 was also rain at the start but the storm lasted so long that over 2 feet of snow fell on the backend.

Imagine that- over 2 feet of backside snow!

 

just a weird setup-an arctic front stalled down I-91 with snow west of it and rain east of it.   

[uncle W]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, the differences are stark.  Manhattan actually has trees and I think the buildings being close together provide some shade.  The temps really ramp up as soon as I get into Queens but they start falling fairly rapidly again past that park with the lake in it that's near the GCP.

its ten degrees warmer near subway vents...

[uncle W]

Feb 2010 should not be in the same league with March 1888...

[Snowlover11]

ac is still cranking, guess the heat is trapped in here

[LoboLeader1]

68 here and cloudy as of 12:30

[SnoSki14]

Probably not getting out of the 60s today. 

[Brian5671]

crazy differences in weather over 60-90 miles-clear and sunny here and 72-raining in parts of NJ and PA

[STORMANLI]

Clouds have scattered out

76°

[MJO812]

68 here in Brooklyn 

[SI Mailman]

Getting a few drops of rain here.

[RedSky]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

crazy differences in weather over 60-90 miles-clear and sunny here and 72-raining in parts of NJ and PA

training with flooding and 59F

 

[bluewave]

Weekends since late May have been alternating between record heat and backdoor cold fronts. May 22-23 had record heat and May 29-30 featured record cold and wet. June 5-6 we were back to record heat. Now this weekend will feature clouds with breaks of sun and a cooler onshore flow.

KEWR   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    6/11/2021  1200 UTC                      
 DT /JUNE 11/JUNE 12                /JUNE 13                /JUNE 14 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 N/X                    59          74          61          78    66 
 TMP  68 69 65 63 61 60 63 69 72 71 68 66 64 63 65 69 74 76 73 68 69 
 DPT  47 49 52 52 52 53 54 54 55 56 56 56 56 56 57 58 60 60 61 62 62 
 CLD  OV OV OV OV OV BK BK OV OV BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV BK OV OV OV 
 WDR  09 10 07 05 05 05 04 05 08 14 14 17 20 19 22 24 20 19 18 21 22 
 WSP  06 07 06 05 04 04 05 05 06 07 05 05 04 02 05 05 07 09 07 06 06

[gravitylover]

8 hours ago, SACRUS said:

June departures first 1/3 of the month

 

EWR: +7.7
LGA: +7.2
NYC: +6.7
TTN: +6.1
JFK: +3.9

HPN, KPOU, KDXR, KWSF?

[nycwinter]

kinda chilly today in nyc..

[donsutherland1]

The weekend will be partly to mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler than normal. However, some warming is likely on Monday. Overall, despite a cooler weekend, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal.

Out West, Phoenix will very likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days, especially during the Monday-Thursday period. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 13-18 period are posted below.

Record high maximum temperatures:

June 13: 114°, 1896 and 1936
June 14: 115°, 1987
June 15: 115°, 1974
June 16: 115°, 1974
June 17: 114°, 2014
June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 13: 87°, 2018
June 14: 90°, 2018 (earliest 90° low on record)
June 15: 88°, 1936
June 16: 86°, 1988
June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008
June 18: 88°, 2008

It should also be noted that the earliest temperature above 115° occurred on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. A year later, the temperature again reached 118°. This record will likely be broken.

This unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was -3.16 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.460 today.

On June 9 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.512 (RMM). The June 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.746 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above next week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

 

[lee59]

It is hot out west in places such as Phoenix. I sometimes wonder how people like such heat. The average high out there at this time of year is over 100 degrees. Not only do you have the heat but the average June precip. is only .09 of an inch. I think that constitutes a desert.

[uncle W]

on this date in 1972 NYC had a low of 46...a record for so late in the season...Binghamton was 35...LGA 46... Kennedy 50...Newark 46...Trenton 43...Islip 43...

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 71degs.(63/78), or -1.0.

Month to date is  74.5[+5.4].        Should be 73.0[+2.7] by the 20th.

Next 10 days showing no real heat.       EURO has trouble getting above 80.       Heavy rain in two weeks possible on GFS.

66*(80%RH) here at 6am. broken overcast.         Got to 72* around 6pm, breaks of sun late in the day.        67* at 7pm.

[bluewave]

This June is roughly following a series of 10 day patterns. Our first 10 days featured record heat. The middle part of the month has the record heat pulling back to the West. So we see more of a trough and less heat through around the 20th. The EPS has a warmer ridge signal returning during the last 7 to 10 days of June. The main uncertainty for late June is how warm will it get. Will it approach the record levels of early June or be a less impressive warm up?

June 1-9

EPS forecasts

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and cool. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 73°

Newark: 76°

Philadelphia: 77°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with high temperatures in the middle 70s.

Out West, record-breaking heat will develop in Phoenix. The temperature will likely reach 115° on one or more days, especially during the Monday-Thursday period. It is likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. 

[IrishRob17]

A misty, dark, dank morning, 62/59

[SACRUS]

Cooldown into day two.  Cloudy but likely no rain today and some breaks of sun.  Tomorrow and Monday similar but a batch of rain / showers coming later Sunday and Monday.  Overall week to  10 day cooldown which began Friday 6/11 - 6/18.  Ridge out west means business the next 10 days with pieces of that immense heat ejecting east , first between 6/19 - 6/23 bringing pending on clouds/storms the next shot at 90s for the area.  ECM does bring  850 Temps >16c but on the northern edges of the heat ejections which come with storms. 

 

Longer range does show more ridging progressing into the EC 6/24 and beyond.  We'll see if the Rockies ridge is shunted east or WAR can build west. Oevrall warm to hot June.

 

Cooldown dailies

6/11

EWR: 73/65 (-2)
JFK: 71/61 (-3)
NYC: 69/62 (-4)
LGA: 68/62 (-6)
TTN: 65/58 )-7)

 

 

[LoboLeader1]

60 here,  I don't this mind this cool down, hope this pattern remains for the rest of the month.

[bluewave]

On 6/11/2021 at 9:15 AM, LibertyBell said:

The thing I find odd is that so few of the high 90 degree summers are on this list.  Just off the top of my head I would've thought 1966, 1980, 1983, 1991, and 1993 should be near the top.

 

We had shorter duration but memorable heat in 1966, 1980, and 1983. But those summer averages over 3 months lag behind our modern day summers. 1993 was an interesting case. It was really hot at EWR and NYC before the vegetation got out of control. But it wasn’t nearly as warm for JFK,LGA, and ISP. As for 90° day statistics, 2010 is in a class by itself at the top. With the record high dew points and onshore flow in recent years,  a summer like 2020 ranked very high due to many days in the upper 80s and 90s. While LGA was the standout for 95°+ days, all local stations ranked near the top for summer average high, low, and average temperatures.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Missing Count
1	1955	14	0
2	2020	13	0
-	1999	13	0
3	2012	11	0
-	2010	11	0
-	1991	11	0
-	1953	11	0
4	1995	10	0

 

[wdrag]

Rainfall yesterday,  and this week ending ~8A Sat June 12.  Not good LI but the rest of the area, got some decent amounts, especially NJ, ne PA and even spotty in se NYS,sw CT