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CoastalWx

March 2021 Weather Discussion

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4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

next spring?  I'm reducing  my post count now into summer, will comeback if there is some interesting weather between now and fall, maybe we can finally score a decent TS or Derecho

Meant fall, although I will be back to do a March review (should be short), then the post-season analysis in May. Hopefully I can BS my way to another 1/2" to verify my 50-60" forecast range.

I think cane season may be fun again.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Meant fall, although I will be back to do a March review (should be short), then the post-season analysis in May.

I think cane season may be fun again.

yeah last year was fun, even just watching goes16 minute updates with some many systems deepening quickly. Will you put a TS forecast? is that a new thing for you? I know you track individual storms and put out a forecast.

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3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

yeah last year was fun, even just watching goes16 minute updates with some many systems deepening quickly. Will you put a TS forecast? is that a new thing for you? I know you track individual storms and put out a forecast.

Nah....I spend enough time on weather as it is...especially with my son due in early April. I just do individual noteworthy systems.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah....I spend enough time on weather as it is...especially with my son due in early April. I just do individual noteworthy systems.

Congrats!! 

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20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah....I spend enough time on weather as it is...especially with my son due in early April. I just do individual noteworthy systems.

Congrats Ray, how many you plan on having?

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My girlfriend said we lost power here for a little last night... Lost power for a split second at work before the generator kicked on in Westfield around 5am.. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Zero use for this shit...miserable.

See ya next fall.

I''ll take it. At least it feels like winter which is much more than what  can be said for the period 12/18 to 1/26

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10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I received 2" of snow with the squalls last night.  2F outside with ground blizzard conditions at times at my altitude with the blowing powder.  My anometer is sheltered so high gust only 33mph

I love that, didn't get snow here last night so just howling winds and I'm gonna guess a hundred branches to pick up later.

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Haha...we had like a half inch of snow last night and it’s completely gone this morning. Windswept into the gulf of Maine. There is literally no trace of it. 

probably sublimationg too - direct to WV ... due to advection/turbulent mixing of ultra dry air that flooded in on the heels of that amorphously defined arctic boundary

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

probably sublimationg too - direct to WV ... due to advection/turbulent mixing of ultra dry air that flooded in on the heels of that amorphously defined arctic boundary

eh...I don't think there was much sublimation in a handful of hours. It was scoured right out of here. Heck we had RH high enough for flurries and squalls most of the night.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

eh...I don't think there was much sublimation in a handful of hours. It was scoured right out of here. Heck we had RH high enough for flurries and squalls most of the night.

Yeah I had a half inch with the initial squall at 3pm that’s completely gone except for all the footprints and dog prints are filled in.  Had some decent secondary squalls at like 10pm and I don’t think the snow even hit the ground.  Most snow in the flood lights seemed to be going upward.  Good flake size too.  Other than that, the crusty surface is just wiped clean.  Covered with pine needles, sticks, boughs and debris though.

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Anecdotally ... just from my existential/personal accounting and memory ...  this 'might' have busted Advisory by perhaps 10 mph in mean momentum.   Prelim -

We'll have to go back and review specific AFD content from surrounding offices, but the distribution of headline/Advisory packaging... this appears to be a classic expose' in the uncertainties and difficulties predicting wind.

This warranted a Warning for most.  The criteria appears to have been met, ...yet regionally: Advisory -

It's not a knock or criticism... it's an observation that requires followup.   I was wondering when I saw it modeled, differential CAA in tandem with plummeting 498 dm height well hanging over KFIT by 12z ...just how we would get that much plumbed out of the atmosphere without turning things over quite a bit ...

In the 10 years I've lived ( longer than I ever intended to..) in the township of Ayer, Ma, I can say that last night's creaking walls and low decibel thump sensations resonating through this home, while jet-liner back-wash so loud that I had to turn in my sleep ...if not admit to some apprehension at times,  rivals any wind event across that decade of time.  I do not possess nor know where to find specific wind accounting for Ayer Ma, but wouldn't be shocked if it was the highest sustained and gusting combination.  I did not lose power - prooobably that's more a function of less air foiling suspended by barren foliage and wind from a 2ndary prevailing direction - those two factors allow force dissipation of course... blah blah.   It's why SE gales sometime are more prolific root ball lifers and grid problem makers, because the wind is going against the kitty's fur -

Anyway, subtle but interesting positive wind bust - probably unnoticed by J.Q. Public because believe me...only we in here and lawyers differentiated between Advisory and Warnings - lol

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah....I spend enough time on weather as it is...especially with my son due in early April. I just do individual noteworthy systems.

Nice knowin' ya, kid   ;)

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Meant fall, although I will be back to do a March review (should be short), then the post-season analysis in May. Hopefully I can BS my way to another 1/2" to verify my 50-60" forecast range.

I think cane season may be fun again.

 

20210302_100053.jpg

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Anecdotally ... just from my existential/personal accounting and memory ...  this 'might' have busted Advisory by perhaps 10 mph in mean momentum.   Prelim -

We'll have to go back and review specific AFD content from surrounding offices, but the distribution of headline/Advisory packaging... this appears to be a classic expose' in the uncertainties and difficulties predicting wind.

This warranted a Warning for most.  The criteria appears to have been met, ...yet regionally: Advisory -

It's not a knock or criticism... it's an observation that requires followup.   I was wondering when I saw it modeled, differential CAA in tandem with plummeting 498 dm height well hanging over KFIT by 12z ...just how we would get that much plumbed out of the atmosphere without turning things over quite a bit ...

In the 10 years I've lived ( longer than I ever intended to..) in the township of Ayer, Ma, I can say that last night's creaking walls and low decibel thump sensations resonating through this home, while jet-liner back-wash so loud that I had to turn in my sleep ...if not admit to some apprehension at times,  rivals any wind event across that decade of time.  I do not possess nor no where to find specific wind accounting for Ayer Ma, but wouldn't be shocked if it was the highest sustained and gusting combination.  I did not lose power - prooobably that's more a function of less air foiling suspended by barren foliage and wind from a 2ndary prevailing direction - those two factors allow force dissipation of course... blah blah.   It's why SE gales sometime are more prolific root ball lifers and grid problem makers, because the wind is going against the kitty's fur -

Anyway, subtle but interesting positive wind bust - probably unnoticed by J.Q. Public because believe me...only we in here and lawyers differentiated between Advisory and Warnings - lol

I think it was a combination of all the wind tree trimming we have had the last 5 years, wind direction,  and frozen ground.  I agree that sustained stuff was levels above most recent CAA events. Gusts were not extreme but certainly up there.

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Then beware the ides of March

download.png

 

It goes against La Nina spring climate... but, climate is like Laws; they are meant to be broken so that the circumstances that led to the perp's motivation vs the Law its self can be examined as a means to test the Law's underpinning humanitarian philosophy of/as applicable - LOL

Seriously, that product is a 384 hour mean - about the best we can glean from that ( we can't glean anything deterministic of course...) is that a few members have to be rather robust with the western ridge/ eastern trough, typical R-wave coupling tapestry in order to move the mean that far into a vestige of that construct. 

I betcha ... wouldn't it be neat if the return rate on anti-correlated La Nina Marches actually "by coincidence," equalled the % of present EPS members that trying to indicate that at this time.

 

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46 minutes ago, dendrite said:

eh...I don't think there was much sublimation in a handful of hours. It was scoured right out of here. Heck we had RH high enough for flurries and squalls most of the night.

It's real and it's fast given the right circumstance, tho. Not sure I'm in the 'eh' camp on that one given these metrics in play. Sub rates depend very specifically upon wind and DP depression ...   It might be an interesting to lab that out... Lay-in a fragile 1/2 " of differentiating ratio snow ending in the 20:1 range. Then whirl 50mph routine wind currents over it with a -20 DP depression air mass ( which looks ~ to what happened overnight).  Mm.. I suggest a lot evaporated too -

I'm sure you are correct that it blow around as well - figure out how much went into which physical process.

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