NorEastermass128

Feb 18-19 Storm Obs/Discussion

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Back to light snow here. Radar doesn’t look terrible for several more hours of this before any potential 2nd round occurs. 25/22


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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

The basic radar I use from TWC shows all snow in the cape and islands.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I should have went there to weenie out with my wife's family who lives there. :lol:  

Wasn't long duration, but would've been an awesome spot for today!

Axiom this season: whenever family visits from Philly area, Philly overperforms and Boston region vomits on itself. N=3. Added frustration that they get the impression New England winters are not much different from mid-Atlantic.

 

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2 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Lol, that radar looks pretty putrid...

Agree, hopefully it fills back in a bit so we can squeeze out an inch or two before the bigger storm tomorrow. Looked good this morning but it got SQUASHED.

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

Agree, hopefully it fills back in a bit so we can squeeze out an inch or two before the bigger storm tomorrow. Looked good this morning but it got SQUASHED.

How much for tomorrow....a foot plus?

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5 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Lol, that radar looks pretty putrid...

yea it does but it was supposed to. It will fill in parts over time, but you probably wont see a solid classic looking precip shield. The end of the 18Z HRRR does look interesting though for tomorrow night. Long range HRRR....but something well have to keep an eye again for SE sections.

18Z-20210218_HRRRNE_prec_ptype-1-48-10-100.gif

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58 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Some of that Texas stuff rounds the bend. Nothing like this in frigging San Antonio though

 

"this is beautiful"

a lot of suffering going on down there, but also scenes that folks will always remember

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39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah def not buying that much beef....lol.

But a period of steady snow tomorrow that might briefly have some moderate bursts seems like a possibility.

RGEM does

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6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yea it does but it was supposed to. It will fill in parts over time, but you probably wont see a solid classic looking precip shield. The end of the 18Z HRRR does look interesting though for tomorrow night. Long range HRRR....but something well have to keep an eye again for SE sections.

18Z-20210218_HRRRNE_prec_ptype-1-48-10-100.gif

The thing is.. no one had that band of 4-5” in CT. The main show was forecast to be tonight and tomorrow. I’ve seen people claiming (not you) that they forecast CT amounts in S CT correctly when they all said the main accumulations were tonight and tomorrow. Which they are still for most of the state 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The thing is.. no one had that band of 4-5” in CT. The main show was forecast to be tonight and tomorrow. I’ve seen people claiming (not you) that they forecast CT amounts in S CT correctly when they all said the main accumulations were tonight and tomorrow. Which they are still for most of the state 

Dude we all said srn ct needs to look out

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Dude we all said srn ct needs to look out

lol yeah the high res models all had that band tickling the coast. No surprise here. 

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2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Some reports around the state. A general 3-6" so far for the southern 1/4 or so of CT

 

086554tCapture.JPG

4.5 here in Branford. 

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7 minutes ago, radarman said:

"this is beautiful"

a lot of suffering going on down there, but also scenes that folks will always remember

Why can’t we get soundings like this?

D455ABEB-627B-4152-9C71-D188E8B8401A.png

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12 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

How much for tomorrow....a foot plus?

I have no idea at this point, I learned today that my beliefs in how the atmosphere works was WRONG. The se ridge+polar vortex in Maine actually does the opposite of what I thought, it does not create a boundary for cyclogenesis, but it shreds storms.  Also we are in a fast flow pattern which makes bombogenesis more difficult to occur. La Niña also apparently doesn’t cool off the oceans like I thought, meteorology is complicated and not intuitive at all. My forecast could still be right, but if it is it will be because of the wrong reasons. I have a confession to make, I don’t really know anything whatsoever about meteorology, but I am trying to learn by making forecasts and when they bust doing a post Mortem to figure out where I went wrong. Regardless it was fun to track this storm and the post mortem analysis will be interesting.

One things that gives me hope though is often the bands push farther west than expected, which may help my forecast not turn into a total bust.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Dude we all said srn ct needs to look out

This morning I saw you saying that yes.. but all the TV forecasts last night and this morning said very light stuff today with main action tonight and tomorrow. So there’s no way they can claim they forecast that . 

  • Weenie 1

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