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February 18/19th Storm Potential


stormtracker
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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

I was texting her earlier, told her to go low then adjust high as things get closer. A reverse bust is always better than going high and busting way too low 

See though I don't think the bust, should it bust, is going to even bee a "bust"

If you don't get significant snow, you're going to get obscene sleet and thats going to make up for the bust. The ground will be white just like snow and it will stick around longer and it will be the most sleet you've seen in the last at least 5 years (or more? If it beasts the 2017 storm).

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good advice although doesn’t look like she took it?

Ha, yeah I see that. To be fair, she did mention the bust potential was high, on twitter and on the air during the 6am hour. She said even their in-house models were spitting out high totals. 

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Just now, ErinInTheSky said:

See though I don't think the bust, should it bust, is going to even bee a "bust"

If you don't get significant snow, you're going to get obscene sleet and thats going to make up for the bust. The ground will be white just like snow and it will stick around longer and it will be the most sleet you've seen in the last at least 5 years (or more? If it beasts the 2017 storm).

Agreed, she and I discussed that too. Could easily be a couple inches of snow followed by a ton of sleet before the flip to rain. 

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18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Big question: Can a 4-6" snow forecast FINALLY yield a warning level result in Baltimore?? Or will the maddening dance of "oh hey we'll snow 4.8" to troll ya" dance continue? Stay tuned...lol

Hopefully! PSU said it yesterday, the potential is definitely there that everyone cashes in before the flip. 

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4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

It is drier on the NW edge but man it juiced up to the South...honestly I see that as a positive for two days away if you get my drift

I get your drift. The storm is gonna do what it wants also. So I’m not really sure why I’m posting about precip totals

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Just now, mappy said:

They do lol, though I think its more Tom than anything, and she usually has to follow Tom's lead when it comes to what to forecast. 

She’s really become one of the better mets in our area. Her example last week of baking cakes w different colored layers representing warm air aloft (eg how we get PL or ZR) was clever and done in a way that any joe schmoe could understand.

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2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

She’s really become one of the better mets in our area. Her example last week of baking cakes w different colored layers representing warm air aloft (eg how we get PL or ZR) was clever and done in a way that any joe schmoe could understand.

I'm pretty biased as she and I are good friends, but I agree! 

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20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I get your drift. The storm is gonna do what it wants also. So I’m not really sure why I’m posting about precip totals

No taint for is on the Euro. That is the trade off. And the Gfs crushes us. It seems most all of the models are keeping us close to an all snow event now. 

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2 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said:

Orange from Sterling? That's a downgrade for the Piedmont.. 

Not for Day 3. Yesterday Day 3 (Wednesday) was yellow for everyone. Day 4 is the one you're thinking of that was red. 

edit: nevermind, I'm wrong. I see Day 3 is now Thursday which was red in spots. My bad.

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It's going to be just disgusting across much of central VA it seems. I guess maybe we'll get a nice freeze over with it? I dunno. Rooting for folks to the north who missed the earlier storms to get plastered.
 

Absolutely laughing at the 6Z GFS that verbatim gives CHO 9.9" according to Kuchera. No way in the world that happens.

 

LOL the 10:1 has us at nearly 12". Clearly drunk.

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