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February 18/19th Storm Potential


stormtracker
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Ok, we know how this goes.  After last time where I gave the people the choice between relaxed thread or Storm Mode and you all promptly made it a debacle, this thread is not quite storm mode yet, but not the normal thread.   We're under 72 hours, so there has to be a thread.  Sorry.  

Keep the banter to a minimum.  

Don't talk about when LWX is gonna issue a watch (however you can post any watches and warnings)

Shut up Chuck

 

 

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2 minutes ago, KAOS said:

In less than 15 minutes this is already turning into a sh*tshow.

Technically the Euro came out before storm mode, but the fact that it was percolating around the 72 hour mark clearly infiltrated the system and, well, there you go. It's all downhill from here!

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42 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

GFS/Ukie vs. CMC/EURO vs. NAM/SREF

Pick your team before the 36 hour rug pull!

 

Screen Shot 2021-02-16 at 1.20.17 AM.png

This is super cool btw. If you did this with every 'significant' tracking--maybe storms that make it to storm mode?--would be interesting to see which results verify closest and at what points along the way. 

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Overall trends are colder, with the coastal low more dominant and taking a pretty good track. Need the waa on the front end to come in fast and be furious in order for the lowlands to have a fighting chance at some snow accumulation before the warm nose intrudes. NW areas are looking good as usual.

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25 minutes ago, Ruin said:

I dont know after the fail of this last system on the models I just wonder if it just wont be 50 and rain all the way up to ny state.

I GUARANTEE you it won’t be 50° in NY State. The TRENDS continue to be colder. Anything else is just nonsensical speculation at this point. Can the trends change? Of course. There are no signs that they are. @Bob Chill talked about it last week-In this hobby as long as I’m not hugging one model that has the most snow etc but look at what the major models are showing and then the mesos within 48 hours or so of an event, most of the time we will have a general idea of what will occur, using the TOOLS at our disposal. 

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6z NAM still a pretty ridiculous sleet event at JYO...to me now the question to be solved isn't if it's going to be a significant event but what the amount of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain combo will be. I'm hoping mostly snow but right now my thoughts are 60% snow, 25% sleet, 10% freezing rain, 5% plain rain for the entire event at JYO...subject to change of course

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

6z NAM still a pretty ridiculous sleet event at JYO...to me now the question to be solved isn't if it's going to be a significant event but what the amount of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain combo will be. I'm hoping mostly snow but right now my thoughts are 60% snow, 25% sleet, 10% freezing rain, 5% plain rain for the entire event at JYO...subject to change of course

Take out the 5% plain rain and I could go for this. Add that 5% to snow or sleet and we good

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

6z NAM still a pretty ridiculous sleet event at JYO...to me now the question to be solved isn't if it's going to be a significant event but what the amount of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain combo will be. I'm hoping mostly snow but right now my thoughts are 60% snow, 25% sleet, 10% freezing rain, 5% plain rain for the entire event at JYO...subject to change of course

Reverse the order but keep the same %s for my area.  Could even bump up the rain one cause cold press storms are always slower than progged 

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4 minutes ago, H2O said:

Reverse the order but keep the same %s for my area.  Could even bump up the rain one cause cold press storms are always slower than progged 

I'm probably too aggressive with the rain part...not sure any model other than the nam showing rain at all right now even down by you. I predict you will get a significant event hoping more snow/sleet than freezing rain though. The pictures from Tennessee which was hit by a sleet bomb looked pretty much like snow after it accumulates over 2" I hope we all have fun with this one in some form 

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Well this Stinks - Trends went poorly overnight. Hopeful they stabilize or reverse a little bit today. Starting to get fuel myself based on that correction. Euro has been running cold. Nam has led the way on most systems this year. If the event were imminent I would be happy with the set up for MBY...but this has the Lucy feel on snow. It will be a Significant storm.. But I think deep down we see and know what is happening here. 

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