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Typhoon Tip

February 18th ?19th?

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I think it holds off until the bigger thump moves in for everyone after dark into Friday AM. Maybe early afternoon OES for EMA and coastal CT

I'm just not seeing a thump.  That's south now.  

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

If you’re looking at qpf sure. We know how these go however 

I'm not.  I'm looking at upper levels.

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1 hour ago, George001 said:

I agree with this, models are a tool not meant to be taken as gospel. This is why I ignore those 10:1 ratio maps. I am trying to analyze the dynamics and temp profiles in the upper levels of the atmosphere to make my forecasts, which I wasn’t doing last month, and it did lead to some improvement but I clearly still have a long way to go before becoming a competent forecaster. However there is no excuse for a model to shift 50 miles east in one run this close to the event, especially with the atmospheric drivers in place.

this happens literally every storm. shit, some of them swing 200 miles. it happens. Deal with it.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ouch....Feb 94 did the 7-10 split right around NE lol.....yesterday north, the weekend south.

Looked like 20" 1-2 punch like 5-6 days ago.

I'm leaving a little room for improvement hopefully.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

May need to scale back to 12-16".

Yeah looks like I’m gonna bust at this point. Objectively looking at the data right now, it’s a lot worse than it looked yesterday. I’m going to wait until the midnight runs but if they don’t improve I’m going to take em down. Right now it looks like the best dynamics are going to stay to the south despite the strong La Niña and se ridge in place, though it’s still close. This looked like a good chance at a major storm, but it appears that the mechanism to bring the precip into New England isn’t there. I was thinking about why my forecast will bust and It appears that the polar vortex is pressing in too much, shearing apart the storm and preventing it from coming up the coast. I thought the SE ridge would be able to overcome that and the temp gradient caused by the se ridge and polar vortex would create a boundary for the low to develop and bomb out. 

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15 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yikes euro is dry. Oh well, can’t win em all, onto the Miller b for the 23rd! 

It happens to the best...but swinging for the grand slam with nobody on is a futile attempt:

Adam-Dunn-Jonathan-Daniel-Getty-Images.j

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It happens to the best...but swinging for the grand slam with nobody on is a futile attempt:

Adam-Dunn-Jonathan-Daniel-Getty-Images.j

I’m still not convinced that we simply aren’t getting unlucky in a loaded pattern, it’s not often you have both a polar vortex in central Canada and a strong La Niña creating a huge thermal gradient and get a bunch of weak storms that slide harmlessly out to sea. I doubt we are getting out of this without at least 1-2 blizzards before spring. The data suggested 12-15 with isolated 15-20 yesterday, but things change. Models are especially bad in La Niñas for some reason, idk why that is but they seem to do better in warmer enso states. 

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Just now, George001 said:

I’m still not convinced that we simply aren’t getting unlucky in a loaded pattern, it’s not often you have both a polar vortex in central Canada and a strong La Niña creating a huge thermal gradient and get a bunch of weak storms that slide harmlessly out to sea. I doubt we are getting out of this without at least 1-2 blizzards before spring. 

@Typhoon Tip...take it away lol

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It happens to the best...but swinging for the grand slam with nobody on is a futile attempt:

Adam-Dunn-Jonathan-Daniel-Getty-Images.j

Adam Dunn was a contact hitter when compared to...

See the source image

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12 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah looks like I’m gonna bust at this point. Objectively looking at the data right now, it’s a lot worse than it looked yesterday. I’m going to wait until the midnight runs but if they don’t improve I’m going to take em down. Right now it looks like the best dynamics are going to stay to the south despite the strong La Niña and se ridge in place, though it’s still close. This looked like a good chance at a major storm, but it appears that the mechanism to bring the precip into New England isn’t there. I was thinking about why my forecast will bust and It appears that the polar vortex is pressing in too much, shearing apart the storm and preventing it from coming up the coast. I thought the SE ridge would be able to overcome that and the temp gradient caused by the se ridge and polar vortex would create a boundary for the low to develop and bomb out. 

Sometimes a strong gradient is destructive for a storm because it creates high wind velocities aloft, which rip the storm apart, or at least prevent it from realizing its full potential. Ever wonder why not all waves over 84 degree SSTs blossom into major hurricanes? There are other factors, aside from the baroclinic zone to consider with respect to storm development. The ultimate irony is how sensitive intense storms are to the surrounding envt....they not only need to be fueled at the surface, but nurtured aloft.

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3 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m still not convinced that we simply aren’t getting unlucky in a loaded pattern, it’s not often you have both a polar vortex in central Canada and a strong La Niña creating a huge thermal gradient and get a bunch of weak storms that slide harmlessly out to sea. I doubt we are getting out of this without at least 1-2 blizzards before spring. The data suggested 12-15 with isolated 15-20 yesterday, but things change. Models are especially bad in La Niñas for some reason, idk why that is but they seem to do better in warmer enso states. 

Spring of 2030???

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sometimes a strong gradient is destructive for a storm because it creates high wind velocities aloft, which rip the storm apart, or at least prevent it from realizing its full potential. Ever wonder why not all waves over 84 degree SSTs do not blossom into major hurricanes? There are other factors, aside from the baroclinic zone.

Look at the 200/300mb winds.  They are ripping right along.

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