Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Zero reason to knee jerk any amounts . Ray keeps his 5-10, we keep our 4-8 etc, . There’s plenty of models and reasons to not jerk the knee. Putting balls in Euro basket has proven dangerous all winter. Fraught with peril 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I guess 2-4'' here over the span of 36 hours? As far as impact forecasting I guess roads might be slick Thursday night into Friday morning but the Naperuary sun and treatment should take care of anything that falls Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Zero reason to knee jerk any amounts . Ray keeps his 5-10, we keep our 4-8 etc, . There’s plenty of models and reasons to not jerk the knee. Putting balls in Euro basket has proven dangerous all winter. Fraught with peril Don’t put too many balls in the euro and jerk it? Sound advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Zero reason to knee jerk any amounts . Ray keeps his 5-10, we keep our 4-8 etc, . There’s plenty of models and reasons to not jerk the knee. Putting balls in Euro basket has proven dangerous all winter. Fraught with peril Funny...I wanted to wait to post until I saw the 12z EURO yesterday, but I forgot and posted. Then of course, it cuts waaaaaaay back an hour later lol I would have gone 4-8" like you, if I had waited. Head fakes on past two events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I'll take the snow, but just want something decent. Maybe we can get it to come back some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Funny...I wanted to wait to post until I saw the 12z EURO yesterday, but I forgot and posted. Then of course, it cuts waaaaaaay back an hour later lol I would have gone 4-8" like you, if I had waited. Head fakes on past two events. interesting i just saw you went 5-10 for most of CT like we did. It's a really tough call right now and what to do, probably wait till the rest of the 18Z suite is out before a final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: NAM with a 6" snowfall weenie bullseye over Will and me. Haven’t been on most of today, but looking at guidance, I still think there’s some upside for that midlevel stuff. I’ll def want to see a notable trend at 00z tonight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Interesting one 5 to 9 WWA due to long duration. PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 CTZ009-NJZ004-006-104>108-NYZ071>075-078-176>179-181200- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0003.210218T1100Z-210219T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.210218T0900Z-210220T0000Z/ Southern Fairfield-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union- Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 355 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snowfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected Thursday, with total snowfall accumulations of 5 to 9 inches by the end of the event on Friday. A light glaze of ice accumulation is possible Thursday Night as well. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 4 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This will be a long duration winter weather event. Light to moderate snowfall is likely early Thursday morning into afternoon. A light wintry mix of sleet and/or freezing rain is possible for a period Thursday evening into Thursday Night, before turning back to light snow on Friday morning and ending in the afternoon or evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Figured we were gonna get downgraded to an advisory since we can't meet the 6 in 12 or 8 in 24 requirements for a warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Advisories for all. 5-9" in fairfield though, havent seen one of those in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 18z Reggie looked a little better. Edit: maybe not for the first part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I would be ecstatic with 2-4”, just need to cover the bare spots on the sledding hills and freshen up the glaze on the cross country ski trails. #simpleman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 23 minutes ago, dendrite said: Good run. Almost time to whip this out on the season. I mean ...it's not like the general theme is very promising - As a base-line probability every season can go pretty much until April 15 N of NYC - That's the 'probability' canvas by wealth of idiot son for being born N of NYC. From that one subtracts or adds: seasonal trend teleconnectors, air and sea (and this is a 2500 page novel ) 'intangibles' - that undeniable weirdness lol But none of which, subjective or objectively ... suggests this goes to April 15 this time. In fact, March 15 would be unlikely/ lucky - So, some years one can elevate expectations based on those signals... this is not one of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m looking forward to this one. All about putting up numbers. This is my best winter since 2013-14 of the places I’ve lived. Yeah...CT has done pretty well, considering we all endured the January torture. We need a late blossomer for the coast. Only at 24.5" season to date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m looking forward to this one. All about putting up numbers. This is my best winter since 2013-14 of the places I’ve lived. Did you start out in RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I mean ...it's not like the general theme is very promising - As a base-line probability every season can go pretty much until April 15 N of NYC - That's the 'probability' canvas by wealth of idiot son for being born N of NYC. From that one subtracts or adds: seasonal trend teleconnectors, air and sea (and this is a 2500 page novel ) 'intangibles' - that undeniable weirdness lol But none of which, subjective or objectively ... suggests this goes to April 15 this time. In fact, March 15 would be unlikely/ lucky - So, some years one can elevate expectations based on those signals... this is not one of those I don't agree as the extensive cryosphere cold in Canada and the Northern USA is going fight back hard. I expect lots of back slapping and nape tanning then boom out of the blue a NJ subsume grabs everyone by the blue balls. I am not being ACATT either. So much contrasting energy available with oscillating teleconnections and of course a final warming to displace Arctic cold. We are on separate paths on this one. I hope those who want a warm early spring before March 21st are ready 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m looking forward to this one. All about putting up numbers. This is my best winter since 2013-14 of the places I’ve lived. I agree. If it doesn't bust of course. Another 6" would put me at about 50". Which is way above average (assuming a 30" avg). But not as high as 14-15 or 17-18 which we in the 60s. The forecast is just whats a major pita, such a ugly strung out disaster of a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Harvey mentioned about 4-6" over about 40 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 hours ago, weathafella said: We have had continuous and relatively deep snow otg for 3 weeks. Should stay At least it beat bare ground in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: At least it beat bare ground in Jan. In my mind, I haven’t seen bare since 1/15 the day we before we arrived I’m Chicago. We returned late on 1/29 with already a half decent pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: In my mind, I haven’t seen bare since 1/15 the day we before we arrived I’m Chicago. We returned late on 1/29 with already a half decent pack. CHI is experiencing a mini 2015 right now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18z Reggie looked a little better. Edit: maybe not for the first part. Reggie is basically 22 hours of light snow amounting to 4.5 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I agree. If it doesn't bust of course. Another 6" would put me at about 50". Which is way above average (assuming a 30" avg). But not as high as 14-15 or 17-18 which we in the 60s. The forecast is just whats a major pita, such a ugly strung out disaster of a look. Wow you crushed me this season. Only at 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 About what I'm expecting... I posted earlier 2-4" north of pike / 3-6" south of pike, spots 7-8" south coast, maybe some enhancement east Still think there is time to inject more shortwave energy to reinvigorate the low for eastern areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Part2 looks good on gfs for the sema whiners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Wow you crushed me this season. Only at 34. if youve been keeping track of your seasonal i will be happy to add it into the map as we go, it will help with the accuracy the more reports i can get. Im at 42.5 so 6 would put me at 48.5, just under 50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Part2 looks good on gfs for the sema whiners. No whining from me. I think this could have a surprise or two. Gfs is robust here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: if youve been keeping track of your seasonal i will be happy to add it into the map as we go, it will help with the accuracy the more reports i can get. Im at 42.5 so 6 would put me at 48.5, just under 50 Would be great. Storm totals: 8 0.5 1.0 14 7 1.5 2 34 for season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 18z GFS held serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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