February 18th ?19th?

[Typhoon Tip]

General theme among guidance is clearly an active week to 10 days ( perhaps a bit longer ..) of Pacific jet. Appears slated to relay a steady diet of Sat-sonde'ed/assimilation-modified impulses in a low curvature- high amplitude, very dynamic flow.

The next in line offers up another shot at impacting the region preferably Friday.. but, part of the 'dynamic' flow means changeability - which should be held in vigil ...probably until Tuesday

     ( There is also another time frame of interest out there around 23-25th.  These Pacific disturbances are arriving around a periodicity that spatially supports that time span as the next ...and so seeing events modeled ..etc.etc )

Keeping on point, the recent discrete handling of Friday's event have trended east slightly - for cold profile enthusiasts... you like that  

The event its self in these recent GFS/GGEM solution ( for example...) appears to be more WAA /..isentropic lift in structure. The flow at 500 mb begins to really accelerate from the TV to New England regions .. igniting an overrunning "quasi" SWFE response. However, this cinema appears actually displaced E from the actual trough working E on its heels. 

The GGEM at this D4.5 -- 5.5 lead tries to keep this all snow N of the Pike... as the trajectory of the WAA appears to tip E and slows the elevated warm boundary from intruding N of that region - it's an interesting snow-lovers salvation solution, and rather than salivating over it... lol, obviously that is negotiable noise at this lead.  The GGEM hints at the lagged trough as halfheartedly materializing an inverted trough structure the pressure pattern ... with ongoing or regenerated light snow.. It's an interesting look - even if conjured in the imagination of the day-dreamer model.   Spent way too much time just now on this particular guidance

The GFS has ... point to point, trended the entire structure E now three cycles worth - that I am aware - I didn't count/check back further.  One aspect that is important for SWFE mechanics ...and overall for snow/ cold profile enthusiast, is that the lead surface ridging over Ontario in both the GGEM and GFS ...is belated(ing) in these recent trends .. built back more W into a potent CAD supportive look.  If/when the trajectory aloft of the incurring WAA slopes less ( more ENE as oppose to normal to the iso-heights )...that overall implicates a colder solution by a goodly assumed amount over yesterday's ideas.   This 12z's run still ultimately transitions... but I'm more interested in the trend for now, because that situation at the end of the week has a lot of smaller scaled/ higher impact sensitivity to it.. .and that high retarded a little more - say - on the next cycle, and that event gets interesting for more snow/ice than it already depicts. ..

The 00z Euro was also a smidge E-S with the entire lower trop. pressure pattern and the accoutrements of various concerns.  It really has a 18 hour mix storm for every N of about mid CT-NW RI ... Again, trend .. also, interesting is that despite the lag trough, it still has a better commitment to Miller B utilizing the wind mechanics in that acceleration field - apparently.  I think we are inside of D5 for the formulation of this thing. This model run right now...I wonder if it commits more there... or what's going on. But the Euro is really only another cycle or two for ratcheting this thing into its wheelhouse -

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Antecedent air mass looks like it might be a little bit more favorable than the Mon/Tues event.

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Antecedent air mass looks like it might be a little bit more favorable than the Mon/Tues event.

It's compounding a little, too - it's both that ... and, the positioning of the surface high pressure is bumped back W a bit.

[PhineasC]

Another 6-10 here, I’m thinking. 

[CoastalWx]

Could be a decent event in many areas. 

[Hoth]

Tossed.

[mahk_webstah]

Looks like a good 1, not sure why they're so little conversation in here very

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Tossed.

IDK this is getting much more interesting. Notice a secondary LP rapidly developing on the Va Capes Delmarva. There is also dynamic cooling taking place in Pennsylvania.  We definitely need to watch this one.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Looks like a good 1, not sure why they're so little conversation in here very

Because folks are shook and know these system can go to sh it.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Because folks are shook and know these system can go to sh it.

They also can go the other way. We watch

[mahk_webstah]

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Because folks are shook and know these system can go to sh it.

count me in on that but this looks good so wth.  does it still look good beyond?  do we have hope for next week being snowy?

[ORH_wxman]

EPS looked nice too. Def showing a lot of redevelopment...it’s a good look for a heavy front end thump when you have that arctic high just north of CAR  

 

 

[dryslot]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

count me in on that but this looks good so wth.  does it still look good beyond?  do we have hope for next week being snowy?

Looked ok for up here for what little i looked at out that far, I take anything past 10 days with a grain of salt and actually this season, Even 3 days.

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

EPS looked nice too. Def showing a lot of redevelopment...it’s a good look for a heavy front end thump when you have that arctic high just north of CAR  

 

 

What were missing today.

[NorEastermass128]

55 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Because folks are shook and know these system can go to sh it.

Yup. 2/11, 2/14, and now 2/16 all turned to dung. We’ll reevaluate 2/18 tomorrow night. 

[tamarack]

19 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Antecedent air mass looks like it might be a little bit more favorable than the Mon/Tues event.

Seems exactly opposite of models 3 days ago, when tomorrow/Tuesday's event was all snow for New England except maybe for ACK and the late week system was looking cutter-ish.  Maybe by Wednesday midnight we'll have a handle on that one.  

Edit:  16th is getting a dung-like aroma here but it's not yet fully turned.  11th, 14th just disappeared.

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Seems exactly opposite of models 3 days ago, when tomorrow/Tuesday's event was all snow for New England except maybe for ACK and the late week system was looking cutter-ish.  Maybe by Wednesday midnight we'll have a handle on that one.  

The script did seem to totally flip, didn't it?

[Typhoon Tip]

43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS looked nice too. Def showing a lot of redevelopment...it’s a good look for a heavy front end thump when you have that arctic high just north of CAR  

....

Will - I'm only using your post as a launcher ...

Having seen the 00z to 06z GFS subtle albeit crucial trend to commit more to the coast  (..ultimately 06z with a mid 980s low E of PWM!! ) I'm thinking this begins to coalesce in future guidance more E.  May even offer a seasonal gap closer on any perceived snow deficits and/or 'jilting' - lol on the latter.   But by that I mean it'll be N of 8" 

Do not allow the perceived deterministic/modeling failures re this is or is not ice storm scenario presently in coverage influence - this thing at the end of the week?   Totally and entirely a different ball game in the lower 300 mb of thermal sounding medium and timed atmospheric metrics -  'Not even in the same f'n ballpark,' as Sam Jackson once said.

 - now.. the 0z/6z operational GFS grudgingly conceding ending on the 6 z look over the lower Gulf Of Maine  ( to me ..) these are all creating a melody to this song that evoke feeling for more commitment to to the Miller B - more likely 80th percentile of what the 00z operation Euro looks like/blended with it's EPS mean's more sensible contained members. ..I guess I just mean that at this range, 80 percent of what the Euro looks like is acceptable - it doesn't mean its final. 

This is setting incrementally toward a classic open -wave Miller-B. Whether that gets more purely so, backs off ... or is partial in either direction remains to be seen, but my feeling is to take the 00z Euro and add maybe 10% more proficient coastal commitment.  That is based upon it's trends unfinished ( apparently ..). Being a fan of cross guidance support, over the last three consecutive GEF blend cycles, there has been a steady increase in individual members showing more commitment over the arc around Cape Cod .. It's insidious, because that subtlety is happening while the spread is still up near Buffalo, which casts almost an allusion as though A.I. of that model were trying to 'sneak' it in ... hahaha.

Yesterday I thought this looked more WAA/isentropic ...now it appears quasi between those and a cyclogenic structure with Miller B ...I don't know if this finished at 4.5 days ... We are in a fast flow and still has deterministic headaches ...

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The script did seem to totally flip, didn't it?

If you don't like the weather in NNE, Just wait a minute.

[tamarack]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

The script did seem to totally flip, didn't it?

Our wonderful 4-storms-in-10-days epicosity isn't quite living up to expectations so far.

[RDRY]

End of its run, but NAM driving the 700 layer straight through New England. Looks quite familiar.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, RDRY said:

End of its run, but NAM driving the 700 layer straight through New England. Looks quite familiar.

Yep

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, RDRY said:

End of its run, but NAM driving the 700 layer straight through New England. Looks quite familiar.

It’s not so much that.  It’s just much further north and west with the setup overall.  It’s probably out to lunch.  The 06Z RGEM was well southeast of that.  The mid level warmth might come in earlier than expected but I highly doubt the NAM’s idea of being so far west is correct 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep

 

Do not allow the perceived deterministic/modeling failures re this is or is not ice storm scenario presently in coverage influence - this thing at the end of the week?   Totally and entirely a different ball game in the lower 300 mb of thermal sounding medium and timed atmospheric metrics - 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, RDRY said:

End of its run, but NAM driving the 700 layer straight through New England. Looks quite familiar.

Do not allow the perceived deterministic/modeling failures re this is or is not ice storm scenario presently in coverage influence - this thing at the end of the week?   Totally and entirely a different ball game in the lower 300 mb of thermal sounding medium and timed atmospheric metrics - 

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwi(not)w, the ICON's gone/going S ..

This is not a majorly powerful low/deep barometric pressure event ...  It benefits from having a substantive PWAT tap from the deep S - evidenced as the b-c zone is observable in the guidance depressed into the mid Bama-Georgia region mid week, prior retreating N quickly to join into the fray as this whole ordeal is unfolding...  That's indicative of a descent moisture source, and..then the nascent/potent llv cold air still trending belated ( even ) in these recent runs, means that is setting up a rather hefty front load potential ... I think Will mentioned that earlier - but then, if this curls back into a moderate exit cyclogenesis, that's where the "both" comes in... That's as is - could evolve more Miller B proper ( and it's > 50 % in the Euro already ) and still get a good dose of water input -

It's bumdom territory when you get pedestrian mechanics with high PWAT because the return ends up more robust - lol

[dryslot]

This one looks eerily similar to Tuesdays with a slightly better air mass to start with aloft and at the surface.

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Do not allow the perceived deterministic/modeling failures re this is or is not ice storm scenario presently in coverage influence - this thing at the end of the week?   Totally and entirely a different ball game in the lower 300 mb of thermal sounding medium and timed atmospheric metrics - 

 

Just now, dryslot said:

This one looks eerily similar to Tuesdays with a slightly better air mass to start with aloft and at the surface.

LOL

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This one looks eerily similar to Tuesdays with a slightly better air mass to start with aloft and at the surface.

Better High placement which is holding onto the cold solution longer though.  By 72 hours out for Tuesdays event we knew my area was all rain or freezing rain.  72 hours out from Thursday still looking good.. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Holding onto the cold solution longer though.  By 72 hours out for Tuesdays event we knew my area was all rain or freezing rain.  72 hours out from Thursday still looking good.. 

The track and origin is almost the same as tomorrows, And there is a high north of here for the next so yes, It should remain colder longer and with more of an easterly track.