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February 18th ?19th?


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Not necessarily. It's not unusual for warmer mid-level air to get further north than expected...in fact it should be expected at this point.

I agree it’s not unusual, but when it happens it typically means the low is farther west than expected. we have had several storms this year do that. The mid dec storm, the early feb storm, Superbowl Sunday storm, and now this one. In all 3 other storms the low ended up farther west and stronger than modeled. Now to be fair that doesn’t always mean more snow for us, in the early feb storm it actually meant less since the farther west low allowed more warm air to come in than expected, keeping totals down. The difference is we are on the northern edge of guidance this time where as then we were on the southern edge. Warm air farther north than expected in the mid Atlantic is good for us if we are on the northern edge of guidance and bad if we are on the southern edge.

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7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

DC always busts. It doesn't mean anything beyond that.

Idk it seems like whenever dc does well we get screwed and vice versa. There’s a reason why they root for the opposite patterns that we do, they root for strong ninos and we root for strong ninas. If they get hammered usually the storm track is too far south for us, and if we get hammered usually it’s a Miller b so they get screwed because the storm transfers too late. 

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4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Idk it seems like whenever dc does well we get screwed and vice versa. There’s a reason why they root for the opposite patterns that we do, they root for strong ninos and we root for strong ninas. If they get hammered usually the storm track is too far south for us, and if we get hammered usually it’s a Miller b so they get screwed because the storm transfers too late. 

DC hasn't done well in years

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We've had a number of Houdini events this year.

At this location the "snow season" is 12/1 thru 3/31.  The last month in that timeframe with AN snow was Feb. 2019.  We're 7" shy of the norm this month and I don't see where that might be coming from, which would make 8 straight BN snow-season months.  And after the Mon-Tues event/whatever the pattern appears to switch from frustrating back to boring.

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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

At this location the "snow season" is 12/1 thru 3/31.  The last month in that timeframe with AN snow was Feb. 2019.  We're 7" shy of the norm this month and I don't see where that might be coming from, which would make 8 straight BN snow-season months.  And after the Mon-Tues event/whatever the pattern appears to switch from frustrating back to boring.

With the analogs that were being thrown around this fall, It was a 50/50 shot of this winter being good or a dud, Guess we know what side of the line this will end up on.

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

DC hasn't "done well" with any event since 2016.

DC is one of those places that is really on the border of not getting snow with any regularity.

In today’s climate DC is like the Seattle area, though not quite as bad. It has snowfall microclimates around the area, and many years see little or no snow at all, but when it does occasionally snow it can be substantial yet the amounts vary depending on what part of the metro area you are in.

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