USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Who opened the DEC 17/18th storm observation thread, we need them to do it again right now. We should have an observation thread opened now, snow is overspreading western CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 25 minutes ago, wxsniss said: That signal for northeast MA again on 0z HREF The probability matched mean is even better: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Who opened the DEC 17/18th storm observation thread, we need them to do it again right now. We should have an observation thread opened now, snow is overspreading western CT. Snow is already in western CT? WOW! Snow was not expected to get up there this early, this screams overperformer in all of mass, CT, RI, even into NH/VT/ME. Unlike previous storms where the cape has been mostly rain this year I believe even the cape and islands is going to get a foot. It will likely start as rain but as the low undergoes bombogenesis and comes up the coast even your area should go over to heavy snow due to stronger dynamics cooling off the temp profile. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, George001 said: Snow is already in western CT? WOW! Snow was not expected to get up there this early, this screams overperformer in all of mass, CT, RI, even into NH/VT/ME. Unlike previous storms where the cape has been mostly rain this year I believe even the cape and islands is going to get a foot. It will likely start as rain but as the low undergoes bombogenesis and comes up the coast even your area should go over to heavy snow due to stronger dynamics cooling off the temp profile. I don’t believe there is snow in CT right now. Radar shows some potential virga but it will be awhile before it’s snowing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, George001 said: Snow is already in western CT? WOW! Snow was not expected to get up there this early, this screams overperformer in all of mass, CT, RI, even into NH/VT/ME. Unlike previous storms where the cape has been mostly rain this year I believe even the cape and islands is going to get a foot. It will likely start as rain but as the low undergoes bombogenesis and comes up the coast even your area should go over to heavy snow due to stronger dynamics cooling off the temp profile. Imagine if had snowed about 20 minutes sooner...the dawn could have awakened to 3 feet!!! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t believe there is snow in CT right now. Radar shows some potential virga but it will be awhile before it’s snowing there. Jerry, the Virga is undergoing bombogenesis and RI in the cloud tops. That should moisten the whole column explosively and may lead to thunder. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Imagine if had snowed about 20 minutes sooner...the dawn could have awakened to 3 feet!!! That was my fault, I meant to ask if anyone was seeing snow in western CT. The radar does show the upper levels moistening quickly especially over the South Coasts of CT, RI and SE MA, CC and Islands. Our surface low is beginning to take shape off the Carolinas as pressure falls have increased to 1mb/hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Jerry, the Virga is undergoing bombogenesis and RI in the cloud tops. That should moisten the whole column explosively and may lead to thunder. No that was from my beans for dinner... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: That was my fault, I meant to ask if anyone was seeing snow in western CT. The radar does show the upper levels moistening quickly especially over the South Coasts of CT, RI and SE MA, CC and Islands. Our surface low is beginning to take shape off the Carolinas as pressure falls have increased to 1mb/hour. BDR at 28/4. Not exactly imminent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: BDR at 28/4. Not exactly imminent Get the obs thread ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: That was my fault, I meant to ask if anyone was seeing snow in western CT. The radar does show the upper levels moistening quickly especially over the South Coasts of CT, RI and SE MA, CC and Islands. Our surface low is beginning to take shape off the Carolinas as pressure falls have increased to 1mb/hour. What’s the current pressure of the storm vs modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: BDR at 28/4. Not exactly imminent No but the different tilts suggest it is moistening over the Cape Cod area, especially east of HYA. but surface observations suggest it is quite dry at the surface, 50% humidity. Hey Jerry, did you see the 00z UKMET, man robust surface cyclogenesis and it almost brings warning criteria snows in 12 hours to the Cape. It develops the CCB last second, so the 0.50 inch of QPF develops too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The probability matched mean is even better: Thanks Don I've never used PMM before. Anyone know how probability-matched mean is calculated and when to use it compared to the regular mean? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Honestly, I do not have an accurate measurement of the surface low and location right now, the SPC meso page shows it is down to 1012mb just southwest of Panama City, Florida. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Grann Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t believe there is snow in CT right now. Radar shows some potential virga but it will be awhile before it’s snowing there. I live just South of Newburgh in the middle of that band. There is not a flake yet here let alone 30 miles to my East in Danbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Thanks Don I've never used PMM before. Anyone know how probability-matched mean is calculated and when to use it compared to the regular mean? From SPC: "Conceptually, PMM (probability-matched mean) is a variation of the ensemble mean with the original ensemble amplitude restored. At each grid point, the ensemble mean value is replaced with a value from the full distribution of individual member forecasts whose rank matches the point's rank within the ensemble mean distribution." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said: I live just South of Newburgh in the middle of that band. There is not a flake yet here let alone 30 miles to my East in Danbury. Not at all surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Hey George001, this is the location of the low pressure center right now according to the best surface observations I could find. surface low depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 So far sizable tick north on Euro for WAA portion compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 New low depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Hey George001, this is the location of the low pressure center right now according to the best surface observations I could find. surface low depiction Thanks, based on this observation the 12k nam is around 25-50 miles east and 1mb weaker than the current obs. There appears to be more convection down south as well, which is aiding in earlier deepening of the low as it comes up the coast. This should translate to both a farther west and stronger low as it comes up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, George001 said: Thanks, based on this observation the 12k nam is around 25-50 miles east and 1mb weaker than the current obs. There appears to be more convection down south as well, which is aiding in earlier deepening of the low as it comes up the coast. This should translate to both a farther west and stronger low as it comes up the coast. I am not sure it is enough for widespread 12"+ amounts for most of SNE and NH and VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 A definite tick northwest, but still nowhere close to GFS Verbatim a protracted advisory event for most of SNE. The better dynamics still developing too late for eastern SNE and didn't improve much on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am not sure it is enough for widespread 12"+ amounts for most of SNE and NH and VT. It may not be but it’s a very close call, the next few hours will be telling with the transfer to the new low having begun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 38 minutes ago, George001 said: It may not be but it’s a very close call, the next few hours will be telling with the transfer to the new low having begun. transfer is happening southeast of Charleston, SC right now, best pressure falls and wind direction suggest this is the area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, weathafella said: BDR at 28/4. Not exactly imminent Make that 28/5! I'd better stay up a bit longer to get one shoveling session out of the way before it's too deep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Final Call snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Final Call snow map Can you convert that map from metric to imperial? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6z NAM just took a jump NW not enough for here but ct does good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 6z NAM just took a jump NW not enough for here but ct does good That shortwave really amps up this run, and the H5 main shortwave trough tilts negatively towards 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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